Tag Archives: Explainers
Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
What is the etymology of the word forecasting?
forecast (v.)
c.1388, “to scheme,” from fore “before” + casten “contrive.” Meaning “predict events” first attested 1494.
Previously: Apple dictionary on “predicting” vs “forecasting”
Previously: Andrew Gelman on “predicting” vs “forecasting”
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THE END RESULT OF THE MEMORIAL DAY FIGHTING OVER TERMINOLOGY:
Etymology indicates that the word “forecasting” is OK to use as a [...]
Predicting vs. Forecasting
Mark Phillips:
QUESTION (from LinkedIn): Forecasting the same as prediction? Which one is more realistic and easier to do?
ANSWER: Forecasting is different from predicting. Predicting is much easier but far less accurate.
Predicting is when you start making guesses about things. For example, you predict that laying sheet-rock will take 45 hours to do and you guess [...]
Prof Andrew Gelman on “predicting” and “forecasting”
Andrew Gelman:
I suspect the words have different meanings in different contexts. In statistics, “prediction” is often used even when the result has already happened: that is, if you have a model, y = f(x) + error, then f(x) is said to be the “predicted” value. So you can have a predicted value, even for an [...]
What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about “forecasting”
Here is what the Apple Macintosh dictionary says about “predict” (which I went to from “forecast”):
THE RIGHT WORD
While all of these words refer to telling something before it happens, predict is the most commonly used and applies to the widest variety of situations. It can mean anything from hazarding a guess (: they predicted he’d [...]
What is a prediction market? — Definitions & Explainers
Listing of explainers on prediction markets:
Yahoo! Answers
“prediction markets” — “prediction market”
Google Answers — This service has been decommissioned.
“prediction markets” — “prediction market”
WikiBooks — WikiBooks – (English) — Search for “prediction markets”
WikiNews — WikiNews – (English) — Search for “prediction [...]
Prediction Market Definition —updated
Definition
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A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that [...]
Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.
CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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V. Issues for Comment
A. Request for Comment
The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately underlie Commission-regulated transactions, and the appropriate regulatory treatment of event contracts. The Commission encourages comments on the specific questions posed, [...]
Will the CFTC allow FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”?
The feedback I have received about my speculative post is that I put too much weight into the CFTC requesting that the prediction exchanges organizing “event markets” (event derivative markets that can’t be used for hedging risks) be not for profit —as the Iowa Electronic Markets is.
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Just below, in bold, are the phrase and the [...]
The lawyerly questions that the CFTC are asking to Tom W. Bell
CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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V. Issues for Comment
A. Request for Comment
The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately underlie Commission-regulated transactions, and the appropriate regulatory treatment of event contracts. The Commission encourages comments on the specific questions posed, [...]
How the CFTC is going to rule on the legality of “event markets”
Psstt… Wanna know in advance what the CFTC is going to decide about “event markets”?…
Simple… Read closely their “concept release”… You can spot the seeding of their future ruling…
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CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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By enacting the CFMA, Congress sought “to promote innovation for futures and derivatives and [...]
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