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Recent Posts
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Tag Archives: Explainers
Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts
What is the etymology of the word forecasting? forecast (v.) c.1388, “to scheme,” from fore “before” + casten “contrive.” Meaning “predict events” first attested 1494. Previously: Apple dictionary on “predicting” vs “forecasting” Previously: Andrew Gelman on “predicting” vs “forecasting” – … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Tagged Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence that predicts, definitions, Explainers, forecast, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, predict, predicting, Predictions, Robin Hanson
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Predicting vs. Forecasting
Mark Phillips: QUESTION (from LinkedIn): Forecasting the same as prediction? Which one is more realistic and easier to do? ANSWER: Forecasting is different from predicting. Predicting is much easier but far less accurate. Predicting is when you start making guesses … Continue reading →
Prof Andrew Gelman on “predicting” and “forecasting”
Andrew Gelman: I suspect the words have different meanings in different contexts. In statistics, “prediction” is often used even when the result has already happened: that is, if you have a model, y = f(x) + error, then f(x) is … Continue reading →
What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about “forecasting”
Here is what the Apple Macintosh dictionary says about “predict” (which I went to from “forecast”): THE RIGHT WORD While all of these words refer to telling something before it happens, predict is the most commonly used and applies to … Continue reading →
What is a prediction market? — Definitions & Explainers
Listing of explainers on prediction markets: Yahoo! Answers “prediction markets” — “prediction market” Google Answers — This service has been decommissioned. “prediction markets” — “prediction market” WikiBooks — WikiBooks – (English) — Search for “prediction markets” WikiNews — WikiNews – … Continue reading →
Posted in Resources - References
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Tagged betting markets, definitions, event derivative markets, Explainers, prediction markets
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Prediction Market Definition —updated
Definition – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Tagged accuracy, betting markets, definitions, event derivative, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasting mechanisms, future events, Information Aggregation, information value, objective probabilistic predictions, prediction accuracy, prediction market, prediction market definition, prediction market explainer, prediction markets, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, Robin Hanson, the future
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Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.
CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – V. Issues for Comment A. Request for Comment The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately … Continue reading →
Posted in Regulations
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Tagged American Enterprise Institute, bet markets, betting markets, binary options, CFTC, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, commodity options, commodity options contracts, definitions, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, Jason Ruspini, Porter, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Tom W. Bell, Trader, United States Of America, Vernon Smith
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5 Comments
Will the CFTC allow FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”?
The feedback I have received about my speculative post is that I put too much weight into the CFTC requesting that the prediction exchanges organizing “event markets” (event derivative markets that can’t be used for hedging risks) be not for … Continue reading →
The lawyerly questions that the CFTC are asking to Tom W. Bell
CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – V. Issues for Comment A. Request for Comment The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately … Continue reading →
Posted in Regulations
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Tagged bet markets, betting markets, binary options, CFTC, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, commodity options, commodity options contracts, definitions, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Tom W. Bell, Trader
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8 Comments
How the CFTC is going to rule on the legality of “event markets”
Psstt… Wanna know in advance what the CFTC is going to decide about “event markets”?… Simple… Read closely their “concept release”… You can spot the seeding of their future ruling… – CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Regulations
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Tagged bet markets, betting markets, binary options, CFTC, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, commodity options, commodity options contracts, Congress, definitions, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, InTrade, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets
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16 Comments