Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: experts

Experts trading on prediction markets

Chris Hibbert:
Top tier sports, national elections, and Hollywood releases are all arenas in which all the information one might analyze is already pretty much public. There are many methods for predicting these outcomes, and I wouldn’t argue that prediction markets have a huge advantage in these arenas. The markets where I expect PMs to have [...]

Robin Hanson at Singularity Summit 2009 — How Does Society Identify Experts and When Does It Work?

Robin Hanson at Singularity Summit 2009 — How Does Society Identify Experts and When Does It Work?

Robin Hanson at Singularity Summit 2009 — How Does Society Identify Experts and When Does It Work? from Michael Anissimov on Vimeo.
More videos of Singularity Summit 2009
Singularity Summit 2009 @ Vimeo

How Does Society Identify Experts and When Does It Work?

Robin Hanson @ The Singularity Summit @ New York City, New York, U.S.A. – 2009-10-03∼04

The miracle of information aggregation and prediction accuracy

Philip Tetlock interviewed (last year):
IDEAS: Any individual expert is likely to be wrong. What happens when you put a bunch of them in the same room? Does the consensus come up with a better prediction than the individual?
TETLOCK: Usually yes. Jim Surowiecki wrote that very clever book on “The Wisdom of Crowds.” . . . [...]

That’s a good one.

Dr. Tetlock is an expert, which by his own research would seem to indicate that he is probably wrong!
Excellent.

Who needs pundits’ track records when we have prediction markets?

Emile Servan-Schreiber:
Mr. Kristof, if you want to keep yourself accountable and track the success of your predictions in the long run and in real-time, why not simply participate in a prediction market such as NewsFutures?
You could suggest that particular stocks be listed in relation to particular new stories and their possible outcomes. Then, as you [...]

Track records + Prediction markets — Will they mix up well?

Yet another reason why we should *not* call it the “Prediction Market Institute”…
Nicholas Kristof:
So what about a system to evaluate us prognosticators? Professor Tetlock suggests that various foundations might try to create a “trans-ideological Consumer Reports for punditry,” monitoring and evaluating the records of various experts and pundits as a public service. I agree: Hold [...]

Prediction markets feed on facts and expertise.

Via Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock of Odd Head and YooPick, the dear honorable Duncan Watts:
In part because of disappointing findings such as this, an increasingly popular substitute for expert opinions are so-called “prediction markets,” in which individuals buy and sell contracts on various outcomes, such as football game point spreads or presidential elections. The [...]

Are prediction markets useful to you?

It’s “pretty clear” that the prediction markets on political elections aggregate information from the polls —and from the political experts.
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Previously: #1 – #2 – #3 – #4 – #5 – #6

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It’s “pretty clear” that:

InTrade has been over-selling the predicting power of its prediction markets.
The prediction markets are information aggregation systems —not magical tools.
The main benefit [...]

“Still, as noted, it was a good election for [the] prediction markets and another piece of evidence of their superiority over the pundit[s] (and at least parity with the poll).”

Dixit Nigel Eccles in a comment.
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at least parity with the poll
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I agree with the above.
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their superiority over the pundits
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What documented evidence do you have about that, mister the cocky entrepreneurial Scotsman?
John Tierney linked to that Huffington Post that listed the pundits’ predictions about the total number of electoral votes that each presidential candidate would take. [...]

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