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- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
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- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Tag Archives: experts
Keeping score of experts’ forecasts — [VIDEO]
Philip Tetlock:
Philip Tetlock’s forecasting project is now open to non-US participants. — [UPDATE]
IMPORTANT: IARPA has removed the US citizenship requirement for survey participants. – Philip E. Tetlock et al.: Prediction markets can harness the “wisdom of crowds” to solve problems, develop products, and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as … Continue reading
Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology, Research
Tagged Betting, betting markets, Economics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, forecasting, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, Justin Wolfers, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Psychology, Research
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Research on how people use the knowledge they have to develop expectations about the future and what sorts or processes and strategies lead to success — [STUDY]
Philip E. Tetlock et al.: Prediction markets can harness the “wisdom of crowds” to solve problems, develop products, and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as a commodity to be mined, not a resource that can be grown … Continue reading
Posted in Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology, Research
Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, forecasting, forecasts, Justin Wolfers, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions
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Robin Hanson at Singularity Summit 2009 — How Does Society Identify Experts and When Does It Work?
Robin Hanson at Singularity Summit 2009 — How Does Society Identify Experts and When Does It Work? Robin Hanson at Singularity Summit 2009 — How Does Society Identify Experts and When Does It Work? from Michael Anissimov on Vimeo. More … Continue reading
How Does Society Identify Experts and When Does It Work?
Robin Hanson @ The Singularity Summit @ New York City, New York, U.S.A. – 2009-10-03∼04
Posted in Events & Meetings
Tagged events, experts, meetings, Robin Hanson, singularity
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That’s a good one.
Dr. Tetlock is an expert, which by his own research would seem to indicate that he is probably wrong! Excellent.