Tag Archives: experts

Keeping score of experts’ forecasts — [VIDEO]

Philip Tetlock:

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Philip Tetlock’s forecasting project is now open to non-US participants. — [UPDATE]

IMPORTANT: IARPA has removed the US citizenship requirement for survey participants. – Philip E. Tetlock et al.: Prediction markets can harness the “wisdom of crowds” to solve problems, develop products, and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as … Continue reading

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100% Pure Cockiness — [EVIDENCE]

The Good Judgment: Prediction markets can harness the ‘wisdom of crowds’ to solve problems, develop products, [*] and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as a commodity to be mined, not a resource that can be grown and … Continue reading

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Research on how people use the knowledge they have to develop expectations about the future and what sorts or processes and strategies lead to success — [STUDY]

Philip E. Tetlock et al.: Prediction markets can harness the “wisdom of crowds” to solve problems, develop products, and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as a commodity to be mined, not a resource that can be grown … Continue reading

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Experts trading on prediction markets

Chris Hibbert: Top tier sports, national elections, and Hollywood releases are all arenas in which all the information one might analyze is already pretty much public. There are many methods for predicting these outcomes, and I wouldn’t argue that prediction … Continue reading

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Robin Hanson at Singularity Summit 2009 — How Does Society Identify Experts and When Does It Work?

Robin Hanson at Singularity Summit 2009 — How Does Society Identify Experts and When Does It Work? Robin Hanson at Singularity Summit 2009 — How Does Society Identify Experts and When Does It Work? from Michael Anissimov on Vimeo. More … Continue reading

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How Does Society Identify Experts and When Does It Work?

Robin Hanson @ The Singularity Summit @ New York City, New York, U.S.A. – 2009-10-03∼04

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The miracle of information aggregation and prediction accuracy

Philip Tetlock interviewed (last year): IDEAS: Any individual expert is likely to be wrong. What happens when you put a bunch of them in the same room? Does the consensus come up with a better prediction than the individual? TETLOCK: … Continue reading

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That’s a good one.

Dr. Tetlock is an expert, which by his own research would seem to indicate that he is probably wrong! Excellent.

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Who needs pundits’ track records when we have prediction markets?

Emile Servan-Schreiber: Mr. Kristof, if you want to keep yourself accountable and track the success of your predictions in the long run and in real-time, why not simply participate in a prediction market such as NewsFutures? You could suggest that … Continue reading

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