Tag Archives: event futures markets

I told you that vice presidential search committees and VP prediction markets are complete bullshit, didn’t I?

Posted on July 15, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The McLaughlin Group of mid-June (yes, I know, that’s last month): MS. BERNARD: Well, here’s what I think. I think the dirty little secret is Barack Obama probably already knows who he’s going to select to be his vice presidential … Continue reading →

Posted in Leading & Lagging Indicators, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, ado, Barack Obama, BetFair, Betting, event derivative markets, event derivative parkets, event derivatives, event futures markets, Hillary Clinton, information, InTrade, John McCain, McLaughlin Group, NewsFutures, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, search committee, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidential search committees, VP, VP prediction markets | 5 Comments

WEB EXCLUSIVE: — The annoted, historical, compound chart that those triple morons at the BetFair blog are hiding from their readers’ view. — It is located in a secret cache, linked to behind a picture of Hillary Clinton. — Curious place to locate a prediction market chart. — I bet nobody downloaded that chart. –

Posted on June 6, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- – For comparison, InTrade:

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, BetFair blog, Betting, chart, charts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections | Leave a comment

2 days after my ringing the alarm bell… THE FREE FALL

Posted on June 6, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- My first warning: June 4. + My second warning: June 4, later that day. + My third warning: June 5. – Now, spot the timeline in the event derivative chart below. – - Take that, Mike R. – TAKEAWAY: … Continue reading →

Posted in Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Betting, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, FREE FALL, Hillary Clinton, information, Information Technology, InTrade, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, Trader, United Kingdom, United States, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, US Vice President | 4 Comments

Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. — Don’t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. — Don’t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket. — Don’t believe in “vice presidential selection committees”. — Select well your primary, advanced indicators. — Choose your bets carefully.

Posted on June 5, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The topic of this post is: Betting & Information – - #1. Don’t trade on the VP predictions markets. I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Betting, Democratic Vice President, Dick Cheney, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, FREE FALL, George W. Bush, Google, head, Hillary Clinton, information, Information Technology, InTrade, Iraq, John McCain, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Nominee, PageRank, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, Republican Vice President, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, Use technology, vice president, vice presidential candidate prediction markets, VP, VP nominee, VP prediction markets, VP predictions markets, VP-candidate prediction markets | 10 Comments

JIMMY CARTER: Picking up Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket “would be the worst mistake that could be made”.

Posted on June 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

The Guardian Take that, Mike R. – Reminder: I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. (But Bo compels me to publish about them anyway. ) – InTrade – Democratic Vice President Nominee – Republican Vice President Nominee – … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic Vice President, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Jimmy Carter, John McCain, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Nominee, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, Republican Vice President, The Guardian, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, vice president, VP, VP prediction markets | 1 Comment

JASON RUSPINI’S CROCKERY: The Brain states forcefully that they are not “event futures”, but “binary options”. Still, as soon as he premieres prediction markets on tax rates at InTrade, he calls them “tax futures” —of course.

Posted on May 27, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Measured Enthusiasm for Prediction Markets – (PDF file) – by Jason Ruspini. – My thoughts: Peter McCluskey thinks they are “futures”. PAM was only extremely marginally about “terrorism and assassination futures”. Even though they don’t do much more than … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged accuracy, CFTC, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, Finance, InTrade, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, Peter McCluskey, prediction markets, Regulations, Robin Hanson, tax futures, United States | 2 Comments

CFTC regulation and election contracts

Posted on May 26, 2008 by Jason Ruspini

Insofar as event markets are within the CFTC’s jurisdiction, they would likely be approved as “excluded commodities”. Here is the relevant part of the definition within the Commodity Exchange Act: (iv) an occurrence, extent of an occurrence, or contingency (other … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations | Tagged ambiguous and arbitrary law, bet exchanges, betting exchanges, betting markets, CFTC, energy, energy products, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, Finance, Hillary Clinton, laws, oil find, online sports, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, regulated sports-based hedging markets, Regulations, sports markets, Trader | 4 Comments

WEB EXCLUSIVE: What Vernon Smith told the CFTC about the social utility of the event derivative markets —the so-called “prediction markets”

Posted on May 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Professor Vernon Smith (2002 Nobel Laureate, Economics) —PDF file: 1. On oversight: I suggest that initially this function be entirely limited to a monitoring and data archive function. Such information should be available for experimental, econometric, finance and other research … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations | Tagged American Enterprise Institute, bet exchanges, betting exchanges, betting markets, CFTC, Economics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, Finance, Florida, Iowa, Iraq, Jason Ruspini, laws, Paul Wolfowitz, Porter, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, private institutional design, Professor, Regulations, Tom W. Bell, United States Of America, Vernon Smith, young economist | 10 Comments

Will the CFTC agree to license and regulate real-money prediction markets?

Posted on May 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

I think that it’s a kind of prediction markets whose contract should be designed by a lawyer or law professor. – qmwztlxb1.hdwg div {color:inherit;font:inherit} .hdwg a{font:inherit} .hdwg div{margin:0px} .hdwg img {border:0px;padding:0px} .hdwg img {padding:0px} what is this? Will The CFTC … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged betitng markets, CFTC, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, HubDub, law professor, laws, lawyer, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations | Leave a comment

Who will be the next US Vice President, past January 2009?

Posted on May 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

UPDATE: – To be kept updated on the prediction markets, go to the frontpage of Midas Oracle, or click on the InTrade tag. – Here are the expired contracts about the Democratic vice presidential nominee (Joe Biden). – Here is … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Democratic Vice President, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Joe Biden, John McCain, meta forecasting tools, NewsFutures, Nominee, political prediction markets, Politics, prediction markets, Republican Vice President, Sarah Palin, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, vice president, VP, VP prediction markets | 1 Comment

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