Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: derivatives

The Euro will fall to $1 within a year. – [PREDICTION]

A bunch of hedge funds are betting against the Euro.
Via Joe Weisenthal

Vernon Smith is bullish on event derivative markets (a.k.a. prediction markets).

Vernon Smith (via):
So far as new applications of derivatives markets I think one possibility is we may see more people making, creating derivatives markets, betting markets on policy, public policy outcomes. We’ve already seen that with regard to the Federal Reserve. There is a market now in which people are able to make, take positions [...]

The Internal Revenue Service is examining whether equity swaps help banks avoid taxes by masking who really owns the shares underlying the instruments.

“Federal authorities are scrutinizing certain financial derivatives that may enable Wall Street banks to avoid collecting billions of dollars in withholding taxes on stock dividends.”

The unsavory and dangerous practice of financial firms betting against their clients needs to be thoroughly investigated.

New York Times editorial against Goldman Sachs and the other financial firms.
Humm. I agree that some practices are evil, but do the NYT know that hedging is good?

Ayn Rand’s influence on Alan Greenspan is responsible for the 2008 financial crisis.

Or so is PBS’s thesis in “The Warming”.
Pretty convincing.
ADDENDUM
Wikipedia:
Brooksley E. Born is an American attorney and former public official who, from August 26, 1996 to June 1, 1999, was chairperson of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency which oversees the futures and commodity options markets. During her tenure on the CFTC, Brooksley [...]

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission will have authority to decide what derivatives must be centrally cleared rather than letting private parties make the call.

“Central clearing interposes a regulated clearinghouse between the original counterparties in a derivatives transaction and so creates an opportunity to make dealing more transparent.”
CNBC video

Barry Ritholtz goes bombastic against Warren Buffett.

Barry Ritholtz:
[Warren] Buffett has been the biggest shareholder in Moody’s — a collection of filthy whores and pederasts who were one of the main contributors to the economic collapse — should have raised serious questions as to his judgment in our minds. That he sat by silently as they did their worst, sodomizing the nations [...]

How to Play The Gold Rally: Gold $1,300 By The End of The Year 2009?

Harvard University crétins did bet on swaps and ended up losing $500 million.

“Harvard paid $497.6 million during the fiscal year ended June 30 to get out of $1.1 billion of interest-rate swaps intended to hedge variable-rate debt for capital projects, the report said. The university in Cambridge, Massachusetts, said it also agreed to pay $425 million over 30 to 40 years to offset an additional $764 million [...]

Life Settlement Securities

NBC Nighly News on Friday, October 9, 2009
Wall Street is betting on how long you will live.
Download either the M4V file or the WMV file.
00:13:30 into.
Hurry up to download the video, as it will expire tonite (Monday, October 12, 2009).
Addendum: “life settlement” @ Wikipedia
P.S.: They should rather be named “life settlement derivatives”.

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