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Tag Archives: Democratic
EXPIRATIONS: Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana
Expired prediction markets InTrade – -
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities
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Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, Democratic, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Montana, Politics, Porto Rico, prediction markets, Puerto Rico, South Dakota, US elections, US politics, USA presidential elections
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Clueless Mike Smithson is betting that Barack Obama will take Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket.
Wouarf. He will lose his bet. -
Barack Obama is the “presumptive” nominee of the Democratic party.
Cocky HubDub has just expired the contract. InTrade and BetFair did not. InTrade will expire the Democratic candidate contract when the Democratic party declares their nominee at their convention. BetFair does not state anything. Maybe they’re too shy to tell. … Continue reading →
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry, Politics
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Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Andrew Sulivan, Barack Obama, BetFair, Brad Stewart, Democratic, Democratic candidate, Democratic party, Hillary Clinton, HubDub, InTrade, Politics, prediction markets, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections
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Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.
I don’t get to vote for President this primary season. I live in Michigan. The party leaders (both here and in D.C.) couldn’t get their act together, and thus our votes will not be counted. So, if you live in … Continue reading →
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
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Tagged 2008 Pennsylvania primary, 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, BetFair, Catholic Church, Democratic, Democratic candidate, democrats, Hamas, Hillary Clinton, HubDub, InTrade, Los Angeles Times, meta forecasting tools, Michael Moore, Michigan, NewsFutures, Pennsylvania, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, Stephen Colbert, Ted Kennedy, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party
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Mississippi Democratic Primary
[My original title stated that it is a caucus, but Wikipedia tells me it's a primary, actually.] – - – Sources: InTrade & BetFair
Doing The Delegate/SuperDelegate Math.
New York Times – Talking Point Memo
So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February.
Jonathan Alter: “Hillary’s Math Problem – Forget tonight. She could win 16 straight and still lose.” UPDATE