Tag Archives: decision markets

Robin Hanson’s blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) — [VIDEO]

Posted on February 11, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and… futarchy: Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo. Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you. Who … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, conditional prediction markets, decision making, decision markets, event derivative markets, Foresight 2010, futarchy, governance, governing, governments, Mencius Moldbug, policy decisions, Politics, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Can a conditional prediction market play chess?

Posted on January 18, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

The Hanson–Moldbug debate

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged chess, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, Mencius Moldbug, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics

Posted on January 8, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

- Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’s blog. – Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’s blog. – Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all. – Paul Hewitt: [...] My point is that … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, event derivative markets, futarchy, governments, Paul Hewitt, Politics, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

If he had balls, Robin Hanson would debate Paul Hewitt, instead.

Posted on December 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: The Essential Prerequisite for Adopting Prediction Markets It is a long text, so I will post again about it, in the near future. (Happy Xmas, by the way.) ADDENDUM: Saturday, January 16, 2010: Debate between Robin Hanson and … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Collective Forecasting, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, futarchy, Paul Hewitt, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Have the public prediction markets ever been taken seriously by the media and the decision makers during the 1988–2009 period?

Posted on September 18, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Why the influenza A (H1N1) prediction markets are not used by the media and the decision makers Robin Hanson: If H1N1 were more deadly, thereâ€™d be more interest in forecasting the number of victims. So far it seems about as … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, History, Journalism, Prediction Journalism | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, decision markets, event derivative markets, H1N1, Influenza A (H1N1), information aggregation, Internet Marketing, marketing, Media, prediction markets | 2 Comments

James Surowiekci snubs Robin Hanson, and, in return, Robin Hanson mocks James Surowiekci.

Posted on June 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: I donâ€™t really know if Surowiecki likes my proposal, or even knows of it. Heâ€™s never returned my emails, though maybe heâ€™ll see this post. I suspect that he sees my proposal is too â€œout thereâ€ to befit … Continue reading →

Posted in People, Psychology | Tagged decision markets, decision-aid markets, James Surowiekci, Kiss My Ass, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?

Posted on June 10, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Niall O’Connor: Robin Hanson, is what I would term a market fundamentalist – somebody who believes that markets are the primary mechanism for achieving the public good. Recent events have demonstrated that this creed is morally bankrupt. We are, in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged betting markets, Collective Decision Making, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, free markets, free-market philosophy, market fundamentalists, markets, prediction markets, predictive power, public good, Robin Hanson, social utility, society | 5 Comments

In futarchy, the decisions are coercive.

Posted on June 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

And that makes some people uncomfortable. The debate on Robin Hanson’s idea futures (prediction markets, decision-aid markets, decision markets, futarchy, etc.) is spreading from Overcoming Bias to other blogs. Here is Robin Hanson: Nick, I never said there are prediction … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, futarchy, idea futures, information aggregation, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Prediction & Decision Markets — Robin Hanson Edition

Posted on June 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Presentation: Prediction & Decision Markets – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2008-04-17 – And, that one, for your curiosity… really fascinating ( ): Evolutionary Game Theory of Interstellar Colonization – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2008-05-26 … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Economics, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Collective Decision Making, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, prediction markets, presentations, Robin Hanson, Robin Hanson Edition Presentation | Leave a comment

The Marketing Of The Reading Of The Public Prediction Markets = What Robin Hanson has deep trouble with, and what the prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair) haven’t fully computed yet

Posted on April 21, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Robin Hanson on “silly” research topics: [M]ost people think futarchy (government by [prediction] markets) is silly, even though most think it has a decent chance of performing well [...]. – Decision markets and decision-aid markets are 2 great concepts … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged Betdaq, BetFair- TradeFair, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Finance, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HubDub, InTrade-TradeSports, NewsFutures, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, public prediction markets, researcher, Robin Hanson, sports prediction markets | Leave a comment

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