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- Native apps are reigning on mobiles, but Jakob Nielsen strategically bets on web apps. — [LINK]
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
Tag Archives: decision-aid markets
Is Robin Hanson’s Futarchy Full Of BullShit?
Why doesn’t Robin Hanson implement his grandiose idea on a small organization (like George Mason University), as opposed to a national government, to see whether it makes sense? I suspect it doesn’t. Prediction markets have very, very slightly improved the … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Entrepreneurship, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Politics
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Tagged Collective Decision Making, decision-aid markets, futarchy, prediction markets, Robin Hanson
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6 Comments
James Surowiekci snubs Robin Hanson, and, in return, Robin Hanson mocks James Surowiekci.
Robin Hanson: I don’t really know if Surowiecki likes my proposal, or even knows of it. He’s never returned my emails, though maybe he’ll see this post. I suspect that he sees my proposal is too “out there†to befit … Continue reading →
Posted in People, Psychology
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Tagged decision markets, decision-aid markets, James Surowiekci, Kiss My Ass, prediction markets, Robin Hanson
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Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?
Niall O’Connor: Robin Hanson, is what I would term a market fundamentalist – somebody who believes that markets are the primary mechanism for achieving the public good. Recent events have demonstrated that this creed is morally bankrupt. We are, in … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Politics
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Tagged betting markets, Collective Decision Making, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, free markets, free-market philosophy, market fundamentalists, markets, prediction markets, predictive power, public good, Robin Hanson, social utility, society
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5 Comments
Decision markets will one day revolutionize governance, both public and private…
That’s the blurb that Robin Hanson wrote up for “Predictocracy“, Michael Abramowicz’s book. I don’t believe a single word of it. If prediction markets and decision-aid markets were so powerful, we would have had the evidence under our very nose, … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Politics
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Tagged betting markets, Collective Decision Making, conditional prediction markets, decision making, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, Michael Abramowicz, prediction markets, Predictocracy, Robin Hanson
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6 Comments
In futarchy, the decisions are coercive.
And that makes some people uncomfortable. The debate on Robin Hanson’s idea futures (prediction markets, decision-aid markets, decision markets, futarchy, etc.) is spreading from Overcoming Bias to other blogs. Here is Robin Hanson: Nick, I never said there are prediction … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations
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Tagged Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, futarchy, idea futures, information aggregation, prediction markets, Robin Hanson
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Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets?
Robin Hanson: There is now a prediction market industry, where I do a lot of consulting, most of which is to private companies. Most of these are on prediction markets, but some are decision markets. What Robin Hanson does not … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Tagged Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction markets, CrowdCast, decision-aid markets, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Aggregation, Inkling, inkling markets, internal prediction markets, NewsFutures, prediction market industry, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson, wisdom of crowds
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8 Comments
Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting
Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting – PPT file – by Robin Hanson – 2008-10-15 An interesting set of slides —though it’s about the technicalities of value assessment, and not about the big picture.
WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU DELIVERS THE SPEECH OF THE CENTURY, THEN LOSES HIS VOICE.
- Combinatorial Prediction Markets – by Robin Hanson Video + Slides Slides from Hanson’s site – PPT file Folks, this is great stuff. I may blog about it, again, later on —if I find time. You can blog about it … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Proposals), Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers
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Tagged bet exchanges, betting exchanges, betting markets, decision-aid markets, deicsion markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivatives, event derivatives markets, prediction exchanges, prediction market gurus, prediction market scholars, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, videos
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Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets
Should Google subsidize the Lunar X Prize contract on InTrade? John Salvatier, Our good friend Bo Cowgill might have already re-created those prediction markets on Google’s internal prediction exchange at a marginal cost of zero US dollar. No need for … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Philanthropy
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Tagged Bo Cowgill, conditional prediction markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Google, John Salvatier, malaria, Mike Linksvayer, news media outlet, Peter McCluskey, Philanthropy, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson, subsidized conditional prediction markets, subsidized prediction markets
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2 Comments
Prediction & Decision Markets — Robin Hanson Edition
Presentation: Prediction & Decision Markets – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2008-04-17 – And, that one, for your curiosity… really fascinating ( ): Evolutionary Game Theory of Interstellar Colonization – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2008-05-26 … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Economics, Exchanges & Markets
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Tagged Collective Decision Making, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, prediction markets, presentations, Robin Hanson, Robin Hanson Edition Presentation
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