Tag Archives: decision-aid markets

Is Robin Hanson’s Futarchy Full Of BullShit?

Why doesn’t Robin Hanson implement his grandiose idea on a small organization (like George Mason University), as opposed to a national government, to see whether it makes sense? I suspect it doesn’t. Prediction markets have very, very slightly improved the … Continue reading

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James Surowiekci snubs Robin Hanson, and, in return, Robin Hanson mocks James Surowiekci.

Robin Hanson: I don’t really know if Surowiecki likes my proposal, or even knows of it. He’s never returned my emails, though maybe he’ll see this post. I suspect that he sees my proposal is too “out there” to befit … Continue reading

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Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?

Niall O’Connor: Robin Hanson, is what I would term a market fundamentalist – somebody who believes that markets are the primary mechanism for achieving the public good. Recent events have demonstrated that this creed is morally bankrupt. We are, in … Continue reading

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Decision markets will one day revolutionize governance, both public and private…

That’s the blurb that Robin Hanson wrote up for “Predictocracy“, Michael Abramowicz’s book. I don’t believe a single word of it. If prediction markets and decision-aid markets were so powerful, we would have had the evidence under our very nose, … Continue reading

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In futarchy, the decisions are coercive.

And that makes some people uncomfortable. The debate on Robin Hanson’s idea futures (prediction markets, decision-aid markets, decision markets, futarchy, etc.) is spreading from Overcoming Bias to other blogs. Here is Robin Hanson: Nick, I never said there are prediction … Continue reading

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Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets?

Robin Hanson: There is now a prediction market industry, where I do a lot of consulting, most of which is to private companies.  Most of these are on prediction markets, but some are decision markets. What Robin Hanson does not … Continue reading

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Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting

Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting – PPT file – by Robin Hanson – 2008-10-15 An interesting set of slides —though it’s about the technicalities of value assessment, and not about the big picture.

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WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU DELIVERS THE SPEECH OF THE CENTURY, THEN LOSES HIS VOICE.

- Combinatorial Prediction Markets – by Robin Hanson Video + Slides Slides from Hanson’s site – PPT file Folks, this is great stuff. I may blog about it, again, later on —if I find time. You can blog about it … Continue reading

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Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets

Should Google subsidize the Lunar X Prize contract on InTrade? John Salvatier, Our good friend Bo Cowgill might have already re-created those prediction markets on Google’s internal prediction exchange at a marginal cost of zero US dollar. No need for … Continue reading

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Prediction & Decision Markets — Robin Hanson Edition

Presentation: Prediction & Decision Markets – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2008-04-17 – And, that one, for your curiosity… really fascinating ( ): Evolutionary Game Theory of Interstellar Colonization – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2008-05-26 … Continue reading

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