Tag Archives: decision-aid markets
Is Robin Hanson’s Futarchy Full Of BullShit?
Why doesn’t Robin Hanson implement his grandiose idea on a small organization (like George Mason University), as opposed to a national government, to see whether it makes sense? I suspect it doesn’t. Prediction markets have very, very slightly improved the world since 1988, my good doctor Hanson. That does not make a strong case for [...]
James Surowiekci snubs Robin Hanson, and, in return, Robin Hanson mocks James Surowiekci.
Robin Hanson:
I don’t really know if Surowiecki likes my proposal, or even knows of it. He’s never returned my emails, though maybe he’ll see this post. I suspect that he sees my proposal is too “out there” to befit a respected New Yorker columnist, and so wouldn’t endorse it even if he knew [...]
Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?
Niall O’Connor:
Robin Hanson, is what I would term a market fundamentalist – somebody who believes that markets are the primary mechanism for achieving the public good. Recent events have demonstrated that this creed is morally bankrupt. We are, in the words of Michael Sandel, “at the end of an era of market triumphalism”.
Robin Hanson:
I deny [...]
Decision markets will one day revolutionize governance, both public and private…
That’s the blurb that Robin Hanson wrote up for “Predictocracy“, Michael Abramowicz’s book. I don’t believe a single word of it. If prediction markets and decision-aid markets were so powerful, we would have had the evidence under our very nose, since everybody and his sister are experimenting with prediction markets since 2003.
Find here a good [...]
In futarchy, the decisions are coercive.
And that makes some people uncomfortable. The debate on Robin Hanson’s idea futures (prediction markets, decision-aid markets, decision markets, futarchy, etc.) is spreading from Overcoming Bias to other blogs. Here is Robin Hanson:
Nick, I never said there are prediction markets that don’t influence decisions. On modeling factors to get trade existing, I mean any one [...]
Should you be bullish on enterprise prediction markets?
Robin Hanson:
There is now a prediction market industry, where I do a lot of consulting, most of which is to private companies. Most of these are on prediction markets, but some are decision markets.
What Robin Hanson does not say to his gullible readers (mostly, young collegians who have no experience of real-life forecasting) is that:
When [...]
Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting
Toward Info Accounting In Competitive Forecasting – PPT file – by Robin Hanson – 2008-10-15
An interesting set of slides —though it’s about the technicalities of value assessment, and not about the big picture.
WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU DELIVERS THE SPEECH OF THE CENTURY, THEN LOSES HIS VOICE.
-
Combinatorial Prediction Markets – by Robin Hanson
Video + Slides
Slides from Hanson’s site – PPT file
Folks, this is great stuff. I may blog about it, again, later on —if I find time.
You can blog about it on Midas Oracle, if you wish. Or comment on it, just below. Do register yourself.
Subsidizing real-money prediction markets and real-money conditional prediction markets
Should Google subsidize the Lunar X Prize contract on InTrade?
John Salvatier,
Our good friend Bo Cowgill might have already re-created those prediction markets on Google’s internal prediction exchange at a marginal cost of zero US dollar. No need for him to “subsidize” external prediction markets.
[As an appendix, I precise that I am in favor of opening [...]
Prediction & Decision Markets — Robin Hanson Edition
Presentation:
Prediction & Decision Markets – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2008-04-17
-
And, that one, for your curiosity… really fascinating ( ):
Evolutionary Game Theory of Interstellar Colonization – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2008-05-26
-
Recent Comments