How Bets Among Employees Can Guide a Company’-s Future –- Internal prediction markets enable colleagues to wager on the fate of crucial projects and the success of products in the pipeline. –- Technology Review Justin Wolfers is asked the question, but I would have a different answer than his.
The reason prediction markets are not widely used in business is that their many
boosters (Robin Hanson, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, etc.) have exaggerated their usefulness. Just because they are objective in their wisdom does not mean that they are very useful.
Objectivity is over-rated. This is a painful lesson for the handful of
young startups who swallowed the prediction market myth. Next step: the dead pool. Posted in All Best Posts Ever | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, internal prediction markets, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson | NewsFutures has become Lumenogic.
“-Collective intelligence for
senior leadership”-…- —- the word in bold tells us a lot. Posted in Betting | Tagged America, Betting, betting and gambling, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Gambling, Gambling In America, Internet betting, Internet betting and gambling, Internet gambling, InTrade, James Surowiecki, John Stossel, laws, prediction markets, Regulations, United States Of America, wisdom of crowds | A commenter on his blog (Bill): Why not experiment at GMU?
Have the students run the university using Futarchy principals. They pick the goals, then you use markets.
You can even start on a smaller scale, a class.
Report back on your experiment.
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Bernardo Huberman‘-s study around and say that the HSX traders are not yet using Twitter as a source to the full extent possible. Posted in Collective Forecasting | Tagged Collective Forecasting, collective intelligence, Forecasting, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HSX, movie box office, movie business, movie revenue, movies, prediction markets, Twitter |