Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Bet

You can’t have accumulator bets on the weather of neighboring regions…

… because “if it snows in one city, it’s likely to snow in another city.” In other words, these weren’t independent events.
Via Barry Ritholtz (author of Bailout Nation)

Ben Shannon’s bad Corzine bet.

Ben Shannon (who blogs as “Jesse Livermore” at “Wiser Than The Crowd”) did bet on Jon Corzine — “buying around 65-68″, at the end of October 2009. Bad bet. Once again.

Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market

The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.
As we have blogged here many times, not every prediction market is created equal. Some are bound to aggregate bits of known information. Some others (e.g., the Olympic city prediction markets) are not [...]

Professor Thomas Rietz (Iowa Electronic Markets) was so wrong on the usefulness of prediction markets about the 2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago.

Chicago Olympic Market Might Have Value, Says Reitz (Chicago Tribune, April 17)
A credible source of information about Chicago’s chances of hosting the 2016 Olympics would have value, says columnist Bill Barnhart. Local real estate developers, hotel operators, employment agencies, vendors of products and services to major events and others have a direct stake in whether [...]

Chicago won’t have the Olympics in 2016.

The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.
I TOLD YOU SO:
- “Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.“
- The prediction markets are not able to forecast which country will get the Olympics. The IOC is a close [...]

Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky. — 2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago — 2016 Olympics Predictions

Will Ben Shannon finish in slip? Or will he win at the Olympics lottery? Ben Shannon has taken a big bet on Chicago. Best wishes to him. (We hope he will be more successful than his latest stock market call, where he sold at the bottom.)
Midas Oracle has always been unfavorable to bets on what [...]

Matt Drudge links to a NY Post story about InTrade’s VP prediction markets.

Drudge Report: GAMBLERS BET ON HILL & MITT FOR VEEP…
New York Post: GAMBLERS BET ON HILL & MITT FOR VEEP.
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Betfair partner goes to the wall.

ON 20 August 2007 Interactive Gaming Holdings (IGH) announced that its online betting companies had ceased taking bets pending clarification of the company’s financial health. IGH’s shares had been suspended on August 17, after a mooted financial loan had failed to materialise. The death of another online bookmaker, may not have warranted a mention, had [...]

Harry Potter will NOT die? Don’t Bet on It.

Prediction markets work well in some cases and less well in others. The Justin Wolfers and Andrew Leigh article appearing in The Melborne Review states the pertinent point: “attempts to set up markets on topics where there are insiders with substantial information advantages have typically failed” because the presence of highly informed insiders will [...]

2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago: Prediction Markets, anyone??

Next: Chicago won’t have the Olympics in 2016.
Next: The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.
Next: Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market.
—-
Why Chicago Tribune’s Bill Barnhart, Iowa Electronic Markets’ Thomas Rietz, University of Chicago Law School’s [...]

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