Tag Archives: Bet

10k bet — [VIDEO]

Posted on December 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Checked.

Posted in Betting, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

You can’t have accumulator bets on the weather of neighboring regions…

Posted on January 13, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

… because “if it snows in one city, it’s likely to snow in another city.” In other words, these weren’t independent events. Via Barry Ritholtz (author of Bailout Nation)

Posted in Betting | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Ben Shannon’s bad Corzine bet.

Posted on November 4, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Ben Shannon (who blogs as “Jesse Livermore” at “Wiser Than The Crowd”) did bet on Jon Corzine — “buying around 65-68″, at the end of October 2009. Bad bet. Once again.

Posted in Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market

Posted on October 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst. As we have blogged here many times, not every prediction market is created equal. Some are bound … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Professor Thomas Rietz (Iowa Electronic Markets) was so wrong on the usefulness of prediction markets about the 2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago.

Posted on October 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Chicago Olympic Market Might Have Value, Says Reitz (Chicago Tribune, April 17) A credible source of information about Chicago’s chances of hosting the 2016 Olympics would have value, says columnist Bill Barnhart. Local real estate developers, hotel operators, employment agencies, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Chicago won’t have the Olympics in 2016.

Posted on October 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst. I TOLD YOU SO: – “Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky.“ – The … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky. — 2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago — 2016 Olympics Predictions

Posted on September 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Will Ben Shannon finish in slip? Or will he win at the Olympics lottery? Ben Shannon has taken a big bet on Chicago. Best wishes to him. (We hope he will be more successful than his latest stock market call, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Matt Drudge links to a NY Post story about InTrade’s VP prediction markets.

Posted on June 3, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Drudge Report: GAMBLERS BET ON HILL & MITT FOR VEEP… New York Post: GAMBLERS BET ON HILL & MITT FOR VEEP. -

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Betfair partner goes to the wall.

Posted on September 1, 2007 by Niall O'Connor

ON 20 August 2007 Interactive Gaming Holdings (IGH) announced that its online betting companies had ceased taking bets pending clarification of the company’s financial health. IGH’s shares had been suspended on August 17, after a mooted financial loan had failed … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Business, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Harry Potter will NOT die? Don’t Bet on It.

Posted on June 9, 2007 by Michael Giberson

Prediction markets work well in some cases and less well in others. The Justin Wolfers and Andrew Leigh article appearing in The Melborne Review states the pertinent point: “attempts to set up markets on topics where there are insiders with … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment