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- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
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- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
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- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
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- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Tag Archives: bet markets
Are prediction markets useful to our global civilization?
Announcement from the Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn: Hello dear members, We all love prediction markets. We are [286] on this group. Please, do forward this e-mail to one or two of your friends who love the prediction markets, so … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Midas Oracle Administration, Resources - References
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Tagged accuracy, bet markets, betting markets, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), internal prediction markets, LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets, Midas Oracle, predicting, prediction markets, Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn, Predictions, private prediction markets
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Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets — REDUX
A little explainer on my previous post, as I got some feedback on it. – #1. Yes, the measure of the usefulness of an idea or theory is the number and the quality of web links it receives. – Google … Continue reading →
Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets
Justin Wolfers: Prediction markets can yield valuable insight into the dynamics of political campaigns, a conclusion we’ve drawn from years of intensive study and research. We’ve even proselytized about the value of these markets, extolling their ability to yield sharper … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators
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Tagged bet markets, betting markets, event derivative markets, information value assessment, Justin Wolfers, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, value of the prediction markets, Wall Street Journal, WSJ
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2 Comments
Historical Prediction Markets
The ProQuest P.R. machine sends Koleman Strumpf’s research paper on the historical prediction markets to all journalists, so as to generate good Press for ProQuest, and it works fine, as intended. [CORRECTION: Jack Shafer found the Strumpf paper on his … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, History, Prediction Journalism, Regulations
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Tagged bet exchanges, bet markets, betting exchanges, betting markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, finance. politics, historical prediction markets, History, Journalism, Koleman Strumpf, prediction exchanges, prediction market journalism, prediction markets, ProQuest, US politics, Wall Street
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Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.
CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – V. Issues for Comment A. Request for Comment The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately … Continue reading →
Posted in Regulations
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Tagged American Enterprise Institute, bet markets, betting markets, binary options, CFTC, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, commodity options, commodity options contracts, definitions, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, Jason Ruspini, Porter, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Tom W. Bell, Trader, United States Of America, Vernon Smith
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5 Comments
Will the CFTC allow FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”?
The feedback I have received about my speculative post is that I put too much weight into the CFTC requesting that the prediction exchanges organizing “event markets” (event derivative markets that can’t be used for hedging risks) be not for … Continue reading →
The lawyerly questions that the CFTC are asking to Tom W. Bell
CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – V. Issues for Comment A. Request for Comment The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately … Continue reading →
Posted in Regulations
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Tagged bet markets, betting markets, binary options, CFTC, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, commodity options, commodity options contracts, definitions, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Tom W. Bell, Trader
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8 Comments
How the CFTC is going to rule on the legality of “event markets”
Psstt… Wanna know in advance what the CFTC is going to decide about “event markets”?… Simple… Read closely their “concept release”… You can spot the seeding of their future ruling… – CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Regulations
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Tagged bet markets, betting markets, binary options, CFTC, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, commodity options, commodity options contracts, Congress, definitions, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, InTrade, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets
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16 Comments
How the CFTC try to define our prediction markets
CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – II. Commodity Options and Futures and the Attributes of Event Contracts The Commission, with some exceptions, has exclusive jurisdiction over two relevant types of … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Finance
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Tagged bet markets, betting markets, binary options, catastrophe single event insurance option contracts, CFTC, Chicago Board Of Trade, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, commodity options, commodity options contracts, definitions, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, InTrade, particular candidate for political office, particular presidential candidate, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, specific farmer, United States, USD
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19 Comments
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations
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Tagged 202.418.5521, 202.418.5578, AEI-Brookings Joint Center, American Enterprise Institute, bet markets, betting markets, binary options, Bruce Fekrat, by-products, Capper, catastrophe single event insurance option contracts, CFTC, Chicago Board Of Trade, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, commodity options, commodity options contracts, Congress, cottonseed oil, crude oil, D.C., David A. Stawick, definitions, Director, Division of Market Oversight, Eric W. Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, governor, Hal R. Varian, House Committee on Agriculture, House-Senate Conference Committee, InTrade, Iraq, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, legalization, livestock products, Michael Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, natural gas, office, particular candidate for political office, particular presidential candidate, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Wolfowitz, peanut oil, Porter, prediction markets, predictive tools, producer, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Robert W. Hahn, Secretary, Senate, Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, South Carolina, soybean oil, Special Counsel, specific candidate, specific farmer, the New York Times, The University of Iowa, Three Lafayette Centre, Tom W. Bell, Trader, United States, United States Of America, University of Iowa Departments of Accounting and Economics, University's College of Business Administration, USD, Valencia, Vernon Smith, Washington, West Coast, young economist
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