Tag Archives: bet markets

Are prediction markets useful to our global civilization?

Announcement from the Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn: Hello dear members, We all love prediction markets. We are [286] on this group. Please, do forward this e-mail to one or two of your friends who love the prediction markets, so … Continue reading

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Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets — REDUX

A little explainer on my previous post, as I got some feedback on it. – #1. Yes, the measure of the usefulness of an idea or theory is the number and the quality of web links it receives. – Google … Continue reading

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Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets

Justin Wolfers: Prediction markets can yield valuable insight into the dynamics of political campaigns, a conclusion we’ve drawn from years of intensive study and research. We’ve even proselytized about the value of these markets, extolling their ability to yield sharper … Continue reading

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Historical Prediction Markets

The ProQuest P.R. machine sends Koleman Strumpf’s research paper on the historical prediction markets to all journalists, so as to generate good Press for ProQuest, and it works fine, as intended. [CORRECTION: Jack Shafer found the Strumpf paper on his … Continue reading

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Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.

CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – V. Issues for Comment A. Request for Comment The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately … Continue reading

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Will the CFTC allow FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”?

The feedback I have received about my speculative post is that I put too much weight into the CFTC requesting that the prediction exchanges organizing “event markets” (event derivative markets that can’t be used for hedging risks) be not for … Continue reading

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The lawyerly questions that the CFTC are asking to Tom W. Bell

CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – V. Issues for Comment A. Request for Comment The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately … Continue reading

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How the CFTC is going to rule on the legality of “event markets”

Psstt… Wanna know in advance what the CFTC is going to decide about “event markets”?… Simple… Read closely their “concept release”… You can spot the seeding of their future ruling… – CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the … Continue reading

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How the CFTC try to define our prediction markets

CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – II. Commodity Options and Futures and the Attributes of Event Contracts The Commission, with some exceptions, has exclusive jurisdiction over two relevant types of … Continue reading

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CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly … Continue reading

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