Tag Archives: bet markets
Are prediction markets useful to our global civilization?
Announcement from the Prediction Markets group at LinkedIn:
Hello dear members,
We all love prediction markets. We are [286] on this group. Please, do forward this e-mail to one or two of your friends who love the prediction markets, so they can join us.
http://www.linkedin.com/e/gis/152133
The issues that are up in the air, these days:
- Are prediction markets really [...]
Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets — REDUX
A little explainer on my previous post, as I got some feedback on it.
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#1. Yes, the measure of the usefulness of an idea or theory is the number and the quality of web links it receives.
- Google PageRank (the engine powering the world’s #1 media) organizes the world’s information according to how many links go [...]
Mystification, demystification, value assessment, and prediction markets
Justin Wolfers:
Prediction markets can yield valuable insight into the dynamics of political campaigns, a conclusion we’ve drawn from years of intensive study and research. We’ve even proselytized about the value of these markets, extolling their ability to yield sharper insights than pundits or polls. [...]
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If this statement were true,
Justin Wolfers’ columns at the WSJ would [...]
Historical Prediction Markets
The ProQuest P.R. machine sends Koleman Strumpf’s research paper on the historical prediction markets to all journalists, so as to generate good Press for ProQuest, and it works fine, as intended.
[CORRECTION: Jack Shafer found the Strumpf paper on his own. The ProQuest publicist sent him "a batch of clips on the topic culled by the [...]
Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.
CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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V. Issues for Comment
A. Request for Comment
The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately underlie Commission-regulated transactions, and the appropriate regulatory treatment of event contracts. The Commission encourages comments on the specific questions posed, [...]
Will the CFTC allow FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges to deal with “event markets”?
The feedback I have received about my speculative post is that I put too much weight into the CFTC requesting that the prediction exchanges organizing “event markets” (event derivative markets that can’t be used for hedging risks) be not for profit —as the Iowa Electronic Markets is.
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Just below, in bold, are the phrase and the [...]
The lawyerly questions that the CFTC are asking to Tom W. Bell
CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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V. Issues for Comment
A. Request for Comment
The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately underlie Commission-regulated transactions, and the appropriate regulatory treatment of event contracts. The Commission encourages comments on the specific questions posed, [...]
How the CFTC is going to rule on the legality of “event markets”
Psstt… Wanna know in advance what the CFTC is going to decide about “event markets”?…
Simple… Read closely their “concept release”… You can spot the seeding of their future ruling…
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CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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By enacting the CFMA, Congress sought “to promote innovation for futures and derivatives and [...]
How the CFTC try to define our prediction markets
CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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II. Commodity Options and Futures and the Attributes of Event Contracts
The Commission, with some exceptions, has exclusive jurisdiction over two relevant types of derivative instruments —commodity options and commodity futures contracts.
Section 4c(b) of the Act gives the Commission plenary jurisdiction over commodity [...]
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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SUMMARY:
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets. \1\ For ease of reference and to avoid classification issues, these [...]
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