Tag Archives: Advanced Trading

IPO Price Discovery

Posted on July 29, 2007 by Brian Shiau

Since the launch of the simExchange, stocks and futures contracts have debuted at a price suggested by the submitter of the game with some adjustment by the admins of the simExchange. This price was generally too high or too low, … Continue reading →

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The Sim Exchange slightly TWEAKS its market-maker algorithm.

Posted on March 30, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The Sim Exchange (simExchange): After observing a few months of trading on the simExchange, the NPC market makers have been tweaked to provide more consistent liquidity across stocks and smaller price differences between their orders. The effect of these changes … Continue reading →

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The Sim Exchange: Stocks vs. Stock Derivatives (Futures & Options)

Posted on March 24, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

#1. SIM EXCHANGE’S Brian Shiau talks back to USABLE MARKETS’ Alex Kirtland… on the usability of the Sim Exchange. Brian Shiau: [...] I also believe gamers think of game sales in terms of lifetime sales. People remember that Halo 2 … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Contract Statements, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Why should I join the simExchange?

Posted on March 13, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

The Sim Exchange (a.k.a. the simExchange): 2. Ever wonder what the rest of the world really thinks about the games you already pre-ordered five months ago? The simExchange lets you observe an aggregated forecast for how many copies a game … Continue reading →

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Keith Jacks Gamble: simExchange is somewhat OK, but will remained confined in play-money land.

Posted on March 10, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Keith Jacks Gamble on Brian Shiau: Thanks for the response. It’s interesting to see examples of product news stories and how your markets responded. These examples suggest that your game share prices are connected with sales. I’m not surprised and … Continue reading →

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Prediction Markets and the Sim Exchange

Posted on March 9, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Justin Patterson on Keith Jacks Gamble on the Sim Exchange (a.k.a. the simExchange): It is a valid criticism, since fundamental analysis is essentially impossible until sales data by NPD Funworld is released (Shiau has some nice empirical results relating to … Continue reading →

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Brian Shiau: The Sim Exchange Works Fine, Thanks.

Posted on March 7, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Brian Shiau talks back to Robin Hanson and Keith Jacks Gamble: [...] Many players realized early on that share prices on the simExchange are completely based on what other people are willing to pay: [...] [...] Empirical evidence of trading … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Trading, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Robin Hanson on the Sim Exchange

Posted on March 6, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson on the Sim Exchange: Er, it sure sounds like they don’t enforce any connection at all at any date between the game mentioned by the asset and anything related to sales of that game. If there are not … Continue reading →

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The structure of simExchange game stocks

Posted on March 6, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Brian Shiau (draft): Contracts on most prediction markets are often binary contracts that pay depending on whether the event described by the contract occurs or does not occur. This structure is often referred as a binary option [1]. However, a … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

BRIAN SHIAU’S SIM EXCHANGE FEATURED TODAY IN THE FREAKONOMICS BLOG.

Posted on March 5, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Freakonomics. Previous: BetFair, Sim Exchange = Vertical Prediction Exchanges, First + The Sim Exchange: Basic Trading vs. Advanced Trading + Since November 9, 2006, the Sim Exchange has attracted over 2,400 registered players. + An invitation to join the simExchange … Continue reading →

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