Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Advanced Trading

IPO Price Discovery

Written by Brian Shiau on July 29, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Since the launch of the simExchange, stocks and futures contracts have debuted at a price suggested by the submitter of the game with some adjustment by the admins of the simExchange. This price was generally too high or too low, resulting in sharp price moves following the IPO and windfall profits. This is [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Trading, Mechanism Designs | Also tagged , , , , , , ,

The Sim Exchange slightly TWEAKS its market-maker algorithm.

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 30, 2007 — Leave a Comment

The Sim Exchange (simExchange):
After observing a few months of trading on the simExchange, the NPC market makers have been tweaked to provide more consistent liquidity across stocks and smaller price differences between their orders. The effect of these changes should result in more activity in higher priced stocks, such as console stocks. Percent price changes [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated) | Also tagged , , , ,

The Sim Exchange: Stocks vs. Stock Derivatives (Futures & Options)

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 24, 2007 — 1 Comment

#1. SIM EXCHANGE’S Brian Shiau talks back to USABLE MARKETS’ Alex Kirtland… on the usability of the Sim Exchange.
Brian Shiau:
[...] I also believe gamers think of game sales in terms of lifetime sales. People remember that Halo 2 sold over 7 million copies. They don’t remember how many copies it sold between months 2 and [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Contract Statements, Mechanism Designs | Also tagged , , , , ,

Why should I join the simExchange?

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 13, 2007 — Leave a Comment

The Sim Exchange (a.k.a. the simExchange):
2. Ever wonder what the rest of the world really thinks about the games you already pre-ordered five months ago?
The simExchange lets you observe an aggregated forecast for how many copies a game will sell globally. Experts explain that market-driven systems can aggregate information from thousands of people, resulting in [...]

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , ,

Keith Jacks Gamble: simExchange is somewhat OK, but will remained confined in play-money land.

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 10, 2007 — 2 Comments

Keith Jacks Gamble on Brian Shiau:
Thanks for the response. It’s interesting to see examples of product news stories and how your markets responded. These examples suggest that your game share prices are connected with sales. I’m not surprised and Keynes wouldn’t be either. His beauty contest view explains exactly why prices on the simExchange are [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Also tagged , , , ,

Prediction Markets and the Sim Exchange

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 9, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Justin Patterson on Keith Jacks Gamble on the Sim Exchange (a.k.a. the simExchange):
It is a valid criticism, since fundamental analysis is essentially impossible until sales data by NPD Funworld is released (Shiau has some nice empirical results relating to prices ex-ante and ex-post sales figures, and the resulting market corrections…scroll down until you see the [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Also tagged , , , ,

Brian Shiau: The Sim Exchange Works Fine, Thanks.

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 7, 2007 — 2 Comments

Brian Shiau talks back to Robin Hanson and Keith Jacks Gamble:
[...] Many players realized early on that share prices on the simExchange are completely based on what other people are willing to pay: [...]
[...] Empirical evidence of trading on the simExchange has demonstrated at least some [market] efficiency. [...]
Players who did not trade in the [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Trading, Mechanism Designs | Also tagged , , , ,

Robin Hanson on the Sim Exchange

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 6, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Robin Hanson on the Sim Exchange:
Er, it sure sounds like they don’t enforce any connection at all at any date between the game mentioned by the asset and anything related to sales of that game. If there are not enough traders of good will to enforce such a connection, then with learning the connection will [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Also tagged ,

The structure of simExchange game stocks

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 6, 2007 — 10 Comments

Brian Shiau (draft):
Contracts on most prediction markets are often binary contracts that pay depending on whether the event described by the contract occurs or does not occur. This structure is often referred as a binary option [1]. However, a prediction market is not restricted in solving yes or no questions. Contracts can be created to [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Mechanism Designs | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

BRIAN SHIAU’S SIM EXCHANGE FEATURED TODAY IN THE FREAKONOMICS BLOG.

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 5, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Freakonomics.
Previous: BetFair, Sim Exchange = Vertical Prediction Exchanges, First + The Sim Exchange: Basic Trading vs. Advanced Trading + Since November 9, 2006, the Sim Exchange has attracted over 2,400 registered players. + An invitation to join the simExchange beta

Posted in Exchanges & Markets
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