Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Category Archives: Regulations

What was Max Keiser doing at InTrade HQ two years ago? –> “due diligence”…!??…

Max Keiser:
[...] I asked John Delaney and his tech team when I was doing my due diligence on InTrade a couple of years ago in Dublin – about the firm’s own participation in making markets – and the potential to ‘manage’ prices in ways that were outside of the normal price discovery mechanism. I came [...]

Why does the CFTC allow the Cantor Exchange and not InTrade?

Joe Weisenthal has a small opinion piece on why the CFTC allows real-money prediction markets on movie business, and bans those on politics or sports. The problem in the piece is that Joe is 100% wrong.

Joe says that there can’t be hedging in politics. Wrong. You can hedge your political ads on InTrade.
Joe says that [...]

Cantor Exchange in the New York Times

Richard Jaycobs uses the adjective “tremendous”. But here’s what the journalo says:
But buyers beware: if “Avatar” is any indication, the public isn’t always so wise about Hollywood fortunes. Most users of HSX.com predicted a flop, and if those users had placed real money on the Cantor exchange, they would have taken a serious hit.
http://www.cantorexchange.com/
http://www.hsx.com/

French online gambling laws are turning into a kafkian farce.

The French government will ask internet gambling operators accessing the French market to turn over:

the ID details of all gamblers;
the banking info on all gamblers;
the details of all bets made by the gamblers;
the source code of all software used;
etc.

Crazy.

Internet Gambling Regulation, Consumer Protection and Enforcement Act

Bipartisan Tax Fairness and Simplification Act –> Internet Gambling Regulation, Consumer Protection and Enforcement Act

The BetFair and InTrade websites are going to be blocked in France…

… unless they fork over “in between 52,000 euros and 215,000 euros” for a 5-year period.
Is that regulation or extortion?

Rejection of the patent claims involving a method of hedging risks in commodities trading

Wikipedia:
The applicants (Bernard L. Bilski and Rand Warsaw) filed a patent application (on 10 April 1997) for a method of hedging risks in commodities trading. Such patent claims are often termed business method claims. [...] Bilski’s method claim was patent-ineligible because it did not “transform any article to a different state or thing.” [...]
It has [...]

How Paul Volcker will save the world

Paul Volcker:
The specific points at issue are ownership or sponsorship of hedge funds and private equity funds, and proprietary trading — that is, placing bank capital at risk in the search of speculative profit rather than in response to customer needs. Those activities are actively engaged in by only a handful of American mega-commercial banks, [...]

BetFair (via Right2Bet) are furious at the new French gambling laws.

Right2Bet (operated by BetFair):
A Senate hearing on Tuesday looked at ways in which the French authorities could make it more difficult for operators not licensed in France from offering their products to French citizens.
They are now looking at adding wording to the new gambling bill, set to ‘open up’ the market in time for the [...]

BetFair, explain to me how this crazy video will help legalize the real-money prediction markets in foreign countries.

The “Right To Bet” campaign:

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