Panos Ipeirotis:
[...] Now, do we need to call them *prediction* markets? I would agree that there is no real reason for that… All markets have information aggregation characteristics and sometimes it is annoying to see how much we reinvent the wheel when studying “prediction” markets, pretending that they are fundamentally new beasts. (The “we” includes [...]
Prediction Markets = Betting Markets = Event Derivative Markets
They don’t agree, but I don’t care. I am right, and they are wrong.
Hearthis post
- A Lesson in Prediction Markets from the Game of Craps – by Paul Hewitt
- Why Public Prediction Markets Fail – by Paul Hewitt
Both articles are required reading for Jed Christiansen and Panos Ipeirotis (alias “Prof Panos”).
Hearthis post
Well, we’re here to help out the lost souls.
Patrick Young:
Director and Founder: Intrade
Privately Held; 11-50 employees; Capital Markets industry
September 1999 – February 2002 (2 years 6 months)
I was one of the founders and a director of the company Intrade which set up one of the first sports exchanges in Europe.
Nowadays there is a [...]
Actually, Emile Servan-Schreiber has been using this term (”collecting forecasting“) for years. (Spot it under “competitive forecasting”.)
Emile, you’re a true pionneer, here. Congrats.
Hearthis post
What is the etymology of the word forecasting?
forecast (v.)
c.1388, “to scheme,” from fore “before” + casten “contrive.” Meaning “predict events” first attested 1494.
Previously: Apple dictionary on “predicting” vs “forecasting”
Previously: Andrew Gelman on “predicting” vs “forecasting”
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THE END RESULT OF THE MEMORIAL DAY FIGHTING OVER TERMINOLOGY:
Etymology indicates that the word “forecasting” is OK to use as a [...]
Mark Phillips:
QUESTION (from LinkedIn): Forecasting the same as prediction? Which one is more realistic and easier to do?
ANSWER: Forecasting is different from predicting. Predicting is much easier but far less accurate.
Predicting is when you start making guesses about things. For example, you predict that laying sheet-rock will take 45 hours to do and you guess [...]
Andrew Gelman:
I suspect the words have different meanings in different contexts. In statistics, “prediction” is often used even when the result has already happened: that is, if you have a model, y = f(x) + error, then f(x) is said to be the “predicted” value. So you can have a predicted value, even for an [...]
Here is what the Apple Macintosh dictionary says about “predict” (which I went to from “forecast”):
THE RIGHT WORD
While all of these words refer to telling something before it happens, predict is the most commonly used and applies to the widest variety of situations. It can mean anything from hazarding a guess (: they predicted he’d [...]
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