Category Archives: Explainers

Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]

Posted on February 2, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

Eric Zitzewitz: We are academic researchers who study prediction markets. We are writing in favor of allowing NADEX, or a similar entity, to offer a broad range of political and policy event futures, including the three they are currently proposing. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Regulations | Tagged academia, bets, Betting, betting markets, CFTC, derivatives, Economics, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, forecasting, laws, Politics, predicting, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Research | Leave a comment

The real reasons why prediction markets are accurate. — [LINK]

Posted on January 9, 2012 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber: – Over the long run and many predictions, markets outperform most individuals; – The more participants there are in a market, the more accurate it is (although there are diminishing returns); – The more participants there are in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, derivatives, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, futures, Lumenogic, NewsFutures, prediction markets | 1 Comment

Trading on Inkling’s prediction markets – [VIDEO]

Posted on January 20, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

More.

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Makers (Automated), Market Trading, Mechanism Designs | Tagged Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Finance, Financial Markets, Inkling, inkling markets, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, trading | Leave a comment

The Death Spiral Of The Prediction Market Startups – [VIDEO]

Posted on November 27, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

James Surowiecki, Robin Hanson and Justin Wolfers were the 3 boosters of the prediction markets. It turned out they were dead wrong — prediction markets are not that useful in business. 7:45 into Steve Blank nailed it.

Posted in Business, Business Administration, Entrepreneurship, Explainers, Finance, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged angel investors, Business, business angels, Customer Development, entrepreneurs, Entrepreneurship, Finance, idea, investing, investments, investors, marketing, startups, Steve Blank, venture capital, venture capitalists | 4 Comments

Idea Pageants are no Prediction Markets.

Posted on November 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

An explanatory post by Paul Hewitt. Paul, don’t talk about “shares”. The right vocabulary is “event derivatives” — or, in other contexts, “event derivative markets” and “prediction markets”.

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, idea pageants, prediction markets | Leave a comment

Prediction markets VERSUS Prediction markets on prediction markets VERSUS Conditional prediction markets

Posted on September 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Panos Ipeirotis: [...] If I interpret correctly what you suggest, this will be equivalent to a â€œprediction market on a prediction marketâ€, aka â€œoptions on marketsâ€: Guess where the price of a long term market will be at set points … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Calls), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Tagged conditional prediction markets, prediction markets, prediction markets on prediction markets | 2 Comments

Financial gaming explained in 50 seconds

Posted on August 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

TradeSmarter Download this post to see the embedded video —in case your feed reader doesn’t show it to you.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Finance, Software | Tagged Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, Finance, financial betting, financial gambling, financial gaming, prediction markets, TradeSmarter, videos | Leave a comment

How BetFair Works = How BetFair lies about the history of the betting exchange industry

Posted on August 12, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

How BetFair Works — VIDEO This BetFair video totally misinforms the public about the history of the betting exchange industry. It actually started in the United States of America, with the Iowa Electronic Markets in 1988, the ForeSight Exchange in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, History, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged BetFair, betting exchange industry, betting markets, event derivative markets, Foresight Exchange, Great Britain, Hollywood Stock Exchange, Iowa Electronic Markets, prediction markets, United Kingdom, United States Of America | Leave a comment

Don’t shoot the speculators. They predict prices, not set them.

Posted on July 13, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

L. Gordon Crovitz in the Wall Street Journal: More-detailed reporting on who has which kinds of positions in oil would make the market more understandable. It would show that so-called financial speculators are trying to predict price movements, but also … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Finance, Hedging & Insurance, Regulations | Tagged CFTC, Collective Forecasting, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Hedging, information, information aggregation, laws, manipulation, markets, prices, Regulations, risks | 1 Comment

Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts?

Posted on June 15, 2009 by Michael Giberson

Contrary to the suggestion of Hendry and Reade, I don’t think “model averaging” is a useful explanation of what prediction markets do. Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Mechanism Designs | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, collective forecasting mechanisms, David Hendry, economic forecasts, event derivative markets, forecasting, information aggregation mechanisms, James Reade, prediction markets | 10 Comments

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