Category Archives: Exchange & Market Management

New Zealand’s election gag law suspends iPredict’s political prediction markets. — [LINKS]

- Election gags and efficient markets. – Election gag.

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading, Politics, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Prediction market manipulation — [LINK]

@ iPredict (New Zealand).

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

BetFair continues to be lambasted by The Guardian, and for all the good reasons. — [LINKS]

One, they are losing all their good people. Two, they’ve banned the media from their stockholder assembly, which is a guarantee to get horrific press. Thanks for our faithful reader for the links.

Posted in Business, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Are InTrade lying about the number of ‘predictions’ they process? — [GUEST AUTHOR]

Intrade now post the following claim on their home page: Platform Metrics (More Soon) Platform operational: Since 2001 Total Predictions: 619,141,899 Average Daily Predictions: 169,589 This is just a preposterous misrepresentation of the volume of activity on the site. The … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Ex-HSX Max Keiser claims that InTrade’s Ron Paul prediction market is manipulated. — [VIDEO]

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Market Makers (Human), Market Prices & Probabilities, News, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Your prediction markets can power the American Civics Exchange. — [IDEA MILL]

American Civics Exchange: Having just executed an initial round of closings for the funding we’ve been raising, we’re entering the final run-up to our real-money trading launch. With that in mind, we’ve launched a community feature where prospective traders (and … Continue reading

Posted in Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Genesis | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The InTrade crisis deepens as their #1 fanboy calls for unwinding all trades on the debt ceiling prediction market — [SCANDAL]

Previously: Post-Delaney InTrade experiences turmoil related to the debt ceiling prediction market. — [CHART + LINK] As I said many times, Carl Wolfenden is an incompetent, and all the economists advertising InTrade on their blogs and in the media are … Continue reading

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Post-Delaney InTrade experiences turmoil related to the debt ceiling prediction market. — [CHART + LINK]

37 pages (!!) on the InTrade message board. Once again, one can question the professionalism of the InTrade execs and the usefulness of the prediction markets.

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

BetFair loses CEO, buys back shares… and increases premium charges on big traders. — [LINK]

Guardian: Share buybacks are a popular tactic for mature businesses and are typically employed when companies cannot think of efficient ways of deploying spare cash. However, Betfair was sold to investors in October as a company that had strong growth … Continue reading

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Why does InTrade offer gold contracts to US customers when they signed a 2005 agreement with the CFTC not to offer commodity options to US customers? — [DOCUMENT]

InTrade does it. (Hat tip to a MO reader.) InTrade wasn’t authorized to trade yearly contracts. Do you, guys, have an explanation on why InTrade does it anyway? Release: 5124-05 For Release: October 4, 2005 U.S. COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION … Continue reading

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