BetFair-TradeFair and the National Security Agency (among others) are giving away $260,000 in tournament prizes to attract the worlds best nerdy geeks (who cant fry an egg, cant get a Friday night date, but can decipher a computer algorithm).

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The 2008 TopCoder Open @ Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.A. – 2008-05-11~15

BetFair Corporate – Jobs &amp- Careers

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

The Rise of Crowdsourcing: Creative Wisdom of the Crowd – Tuesday, May 20th, 2008 at 6:00pm – @ Bo Cowgills Alma Mater

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The Rise of Crowdsourcing: Creative Wisdom of the Crowd – @ Stanford Business School, Stanford University, California, U.S.A. – 2008-05-20

&#8211-&gt- Predictify &amp- Cambrian House

Via Daniel Horowitz (Business and Technology Consultant)

Googles Bo Cowgill @ 2008 DIG Conference

No Gravatar2008 DIG Conference: Leveraging Information for Breakthrough Business Performance – (featuring Google&#8217-s Bo &#8220-Grandizer&#8221- Cowgill) – @ Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.A. – 2008-05-13~15


RELATED NOTE: I&#8217-m preparing a long post about the Cowgill/Wolfers/Zitzewitz paper&#8230- If you have positive or negative tips, contact me today&#8230-

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • How Decision Markets Work (with emphasis on InTrade) – by Robin Hanson
  • MIDAS ORACLE POWER: People googling about BetFair’s new bet-matching logic are automatically directed to our group blog. BetFair’s SEO can return to the locker room.
  • David Pennock, a respected expert in prediction markets and market design, discusses some aspects of BetFair’s new bet-matching logic.
  • Inkling Markets has automated the making of the contractual agreement with its prospects. So, now, if you don’t want to, you can avoid talking to Adam “The Shark” Siegel.
  • Topic: “prediction markets” – MyBlogLog

BetFair will answer some of Ed Murrays questions on Wednesday evening, March 19, 2008, between 6pm and 7pm (UK Time).

No GravatarBetFair:

Forum Q&amp-A Session

Betfair Customer Services 17 Mar 11:21

As announced last week we’ll be hosting a Q&amp-A session on the forum this Wednesday evening (19th March) between 6pm and 7pm (UK Time). The purpose of this Q&amp-A session is to answer questions regarding Betfair’s new bet matching logic. To help us get through as many questions as possible you can send them in advance to Unfortunately it is not possible for us to respond to each email individually but we will attempt to answer all questions raised via the live Q&amp-A session.

We realise that customers would appreciate the chance to have questions answered on other topics too, but we want to focus this initial session on just the new bet matching logic to ensure that we answer as many questions as possible. For those customers who have questions for Betfair that aren’t related to this topic we’ll be reintroducing regular forum Q&amp-A sessions over the coming weeks. We’ll post more information about those sessions nearer the time.

We hope you find this session helpful and informative.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Robin Hanson wants to rule the world —just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.
  • Predictify got funded… Great for those who will be hired… But is it a good thing, overall?
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.
  • TradeSports-InTrade — Check Deposits
  • BetFair Australia fought for free trade across Australian state boundaries… and won.

2nd annual Tech Policy Summit

No Gravatar2nd annual Tech Policy Summit – @ Hollywood, California, U.S.A. – 2008-03-26~28

Inkling Markets is a silver sponsor&#8230- if you can believe it.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Ratted by his bank, sex-addict New York governor Eliot Spitzer (alias “Client 9”) resigns.
  • BBC’s coverage of politics is dull like taxes, death and German sausages.
  • Never talk when you can nod, and never nod when you can wink, and never write an e-mail because it’s death. You’re giving prosecutors all the evidence we need.
  • Is Justin Wolfers a libertarian? Probably not.
  • The information technology that caught Eliot Spitzer
  • Eric Zitzewitz’s 10 minutes of fame
  • Fun with conditional probabilities

OReilly – Money-Tech Conference

O’Reilly - Money-Tech Conference

Author Profile&nbsp-Editor and Publisher of Midas Oracle .ORG .NET .COM &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s mugshot &#8212- Contact Chris Masse &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s LinkedIn profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s FaceBook profile &#8212- Chris Masse&#8217-s Google profile &#8212- Sophia-Antipolis, France, E.U. Read more from this author&#8230-

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • We already have prediction markets in future tax rates. It’s called the municipal bond yield curve.
  • Google Profiles
  • Event Derivative Exchange HedgeStreet is baaaaaaaaack… from the grave.
  • Sports Derivative Forum
  • I’m a big believer in the market, that it is the best way of aggregating information. Due to the law of supply and demand and profit-seeking, it has a better idea of what a price should be than any other way of determining prices.

eTech 2008 – Googles enterprise prediction markets

No GravatarO&#8217-Reilly Conference – eTech 2008: Prediction markets and the flow of information at Google – San Diego, California, USA – 2008-03-03~06

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Many people twitter on prediction markets.
  • Folks, when you have something important to say, write up a full post, not a comment.
  • Prediction Market Journalism
  • TechCrunch is 221 times bigger than Midas Oracle.
  • Earthquake measuring 9.0 or more on Richter scale to occur anywhere on or before December 31, 2008
  • Why Midas Oracle (and not TV news shows or print newspapers) will dominate the future.
  • The Six Degrees Of Separation

Prediction market sessions of the OReilly Money-Tech Conference suffer fatally from the absence of the worlds most knowledgeable, most innovative and most trustworthy prediction market expert.

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O&#8217-Reilly Money-Tech Conference – 2008-02-06~07

Predicting the Future of Prediction Markets + Google as Prediction Market

Wharton&#8217-s Justin Wolfers, Google&#8217-s Bo Cowgill, Inkling&#8217-s Adam Siegel, and Sean Park (representing Himself).

No more Robin Hanson. :(

Better to stay home watching a re-play of the December 2006&#8217-s Yahoo! Confab, where Robin Hanson does appear.

Confab Yahoo! on prediction markets – Streaming Video: 100k300k – 2006-12-13


UPDATE: Robin Hanson comments&#8230-

I was invited, but the date conflicted with a SETI conference I&#8217-ll be speaking at.

Prediction markets at the Money Tech conference

Money Tech conference = Technology and Money, Asset Management and Networks, Computing Horsepower and Trading + Prediction Markets

Robin Hanson will be presenting on prediction markets at the Money Tech conference. He is not yet on the official program, but our friend (and prediction market skeptic) Barry Ritholtz tells us that Robin Hanson was at the pre-conference dinner. (Robin Hanson was quite surprisingly &#8220-fascinating&#8221-, he wrote. :-D Will Robin Hanson manage to turn this skeptic into a fanboy? We&#8217-ll see.)

Psstt&#8230- Barry Ritholtz talks about November 2007 while the official site says February 2008. Bizarre.

Thanks to Alex Kirtland for alerting us about this Money Tech conference, last month.

UPDATE: Barry Ritholtz comments&#8230-

November? How did that happen?

I meant February.

My current excuse for any brain glitch like this is to declare that I smoked way too much pot in college and leave it at that. (That’s much better than admitting advanced senility/aging)

Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

  • Barack Obama’s victory in South Carolina won’t stop the Clintons.
  • eTech 2008 — Google’s enterprise prediction markets
  • Predictocracy = Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making
  • Prediction Market Management — Foresight Exchange vs. Inkling Markets & HubDub
  • Why you should launch your brand-new prediction exchange at a conference
  • Why Indian Software Outsourcing Companies are Outsourcing to China
  • Midas Oracle is the only popular, independent, exhaustive, multi-author, multi-exchange, Web-based resource on prediction markets.

MIT Center for Collective Intelligence – Play-money prediction exchange

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Yesterday, I blogged about the MIT CCI&#8217-s collective book project, &#8220-We Are Smarter Than Me&#8220-, which will be presented today at a live web cast (at lunch time, EST).

I completely overlooked that the MIT CCI is launching a play-money prediction exchange. The topics are CCI self-centric and thus totally uninteresting.


What is a &#8220-Prediction Tool&#8221-?

The Prediction Tool on this site is based on the idea of prediction markets. &#8220-Prediction markets are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event or parameter (e.g., Will there be at least 10,000 registered community members by March 31, 2007?). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. Other names for prediction markets include information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets.&#8221- (Source: Wikipedia)

OK I get it, sort of, but what does that mean?

We have made a set of predictions about the success of the &#8220-We&#8221- community. You get to buy and sell stock in these predictions based on how likely you think they are to come true. If the prediction turns out to be true, the stock will pay out $100 per share. If it turns out not to be true, the stock will pay out $0 per share.

The hope is that through trading stocks back and forth, the market value of the stocks will eventually closely match the probability of each event coming true.

My Question: Does anybody know which software/design the MIT CCI is using here?

The Answer (added October 25): Shared Insights runs the MIT CCI&#8217-s play-money prediction exchange with the software provided by Consensus Point.