Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Category Archives: Analysis (Market Calls)

What Does Gold Hedge Against?

“Not inflation”, the gold critics will shout, in one of their go-to arguments. This is what we hear from CNBC’s Mark Haines at every possible chance: since 1980, gold has not kept up with the CPI and so shouldn’t be used as an inflation hedge. One would point out to Mark that this is [...]

Buy the market when it does pull back.

Morgan Keenan’s Mike Gibbs on investing opportunities in the financial markets.

Prediction markets VERSUS Prediction markets on prediction markets VERSUS Conditional prediction markets

Panos Ipeirotis:
[...] If I interpret correctly what you suggest, this will be equivalent to a “prediction market on a prediction market”, aka “options on markets”: Guess where the price of a long term market will be at set points in the future, before the expiration of the long-term market. InTrade experimented with such contracts last [...]

Ben Shannon on his misguided “SELL” stock market call delivered just before the stock market rally

Ben Shannon on his “SELL” market call
Previously: Wiser Than The Stock Market — NOT
UPDATE: Andrew Page + Henry Blodget

Wiser Than The Stock Market — NOT

Ben Shannon (alias “Jesse Livermore”, who blogs at “Wiser Than The Crowd”) claims on his blog to have an uncanny ability at forecasting the future and profiting from it, whether it is speculating on InTrade’s prediction markets or on the US stock market. Here is his stock market call from July 10, 2009:
SELL SELL SELL
REALITY [...]

2008 US electoral college: What I am betting on.

PollTrack:

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I like the way they color this electoral college map —with 5 colors only (simplicity is good). It is very clear and usable, I believe. You can see 6 states in gray (“too close to call”). I am heavily betting on Barack Obama for Florida and North Carolina. There will be a good payoff, next [...]

The definitive proof that HubDub is an indispensable prediction exchange. [*]

As I told you, I am blogging as often as possible on the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM) about the 2008 US presidential elections as seen thru the eyes of the prediction markets. As I wrote there this morning, I have just found out a truly interesting set of prediction markets at HubDub. (I wasn’t [...]

Arbitraging on InTrade

Sell everything.
Jason Ruspini will probably point the cause of the problem to InTrade’s transaction cost structure.

ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks.

As I explained in early June 2008, the VP speculations that appear in the Press should never be taken seriously. Most of them (and you don’t know which ones) are a big orchestration of pure lies aimed at creating publicity, or wicked lies in the form of trial balloons. The aims of the political campaigns [...]

Free Money On The Table At InTrade

Short that.
Jerry Yang is very solid … relatively solid.
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