2008 US electoral college: What I am betting on.

No Gravatar

PollTrack:

I like the way they color this electoral college map &#8212-with 5 colors only (simplicity is good). It is very clear and usable, I believe. You can see 6 states in gray (&#8221-too close to call&#8221-). I am heavily betting on Barack Obama for Florida and North Carolina. There will be a good payoff, next Tuesday &#8212-maybe. :-D

Price for Alabama - Florida at intrade.com

Price for New Jersey - Rhode Island at intrade.com

Who will win Florida in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Explainer On Prediction Markets

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 60 times out of 100, the favored outcome will occur- and 40 times out of 100, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism &#8212-with or without an automated market maker.

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that the traders bring when they agree on prices. These event derivative traders feed on the primary indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information), like the polls, for instance. (Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-) Armed with these bits of information, the speculators then trade based on their anticipations, which will be either confirmed or infirmed. Hence, the prediction markets (which are more than just an information aggregation mechanism) are a meta forecasting tool.

The value of a set of prediction markets consists in the added accuracy that these prediction markets provide relative to the other forecasting mechanisms, times the value of accuracy in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining these prediction markets, relative to the cost of the other forecasting mechanisms. According to Robin Hanson, a highly accurate prediction market has little value if some other forecasting mechanism(s) can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if very few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic.

More Info:

The Best Resources On Prediction Markets = The Best External Web Links + The Best Midas Oracle Posts

More Charts Of Prediction Markets

The definitive proof that HubDub is an indispensable prediction exchange. [*]

No Gravatar

As I told you, I am blogging as often as possible on the other blog (Midas Oracle .COM) about the 2008 US presidential elections as seen thru the eyes of the prediction markets. As I wrote there this morning, I have just found out a truly interesting set of prediction markets at HubDub. (I wasn&#8217-t able to find its equivalent on InTrade, BetFair, or NewsFutures.) It&#8217-s trying to predict where the Dow Jones will be, come November 4, 2008. (As you may remember, the deeper the financial crisis, the more likely it is that Barack Obama will be elected president of the United States.)

As of this morning, the Dow Jones is barely above the 8,000 level (8,175.77), and the futures say that the stock market will rebound, at least in the first hours. However, I am bearish. I would bet that the Dow Jones will stay around the current level (or lower) until Election Day. In other words, I am betting on the red, on the chart below.

At what level will the Dow Jones Industrial Average close on Election Day?

[*] And if Emile (whom we highly respect, overall) is pissed off by that statement, then, great, that&#8217-s a cool unintended collateral consequence. :-D

Producer of the Freakonomics documentary urges devotees to buy the event derivative at the Hollywood Stock Exchange. Price moves up.

No Gravatar

Freakonomics:

July 22nd,
2008
4:47 pm

I am producing the Freakonomics documentary, so I am particularly interested to read the comments to Prof. Strumpf’s guest post.

Koleman properly identified the likely reasons for FRKON’s summer swoon on the Hollywood Stock Exchange. While I cannot provide a definitive explanation for precisely which of those reasons was most influential, I can offer insight into what is actually transpiring (as distinguished from its virtual performance on HSX).

1. Theory: Changes in the likelihood of the movie being made. Reality: The film will be made- it is already “green lit”. I am an independent producer, subject to no studio. The likelihood of the film getting made has not wavered since I originally optioned the cinematic rights to Freakonomics. The only variables have been the scheduling vagaries and other challenges related to using multiple directors.

2. Theory: Changes in the perceived quality of the movie. Koleman posits a couple of possibilities: “funding shortfalls” and “conflicts among the five sets of directors”. Reality: There are no funding shortfalls (I am financing the film myself). None would have emerged yet, anyway. We haven’t even begun shooting the film. The directors will not be working together, so conflicts seem extraordinarily unlikely. To date, they have universally praised each other.

3. Theory: Out of sight, out of mind. Reality: This theory is true. We announced the project in December 2007 and earned a lot of press. Things have quieted significantly since then. We will get another wave of publicity this fall when we have presentable footage. We have another announcement that should generate attention, too (I address that below). Finally, there will be the inevitable surge of publicity when we announce our festival screenings in spring of 2009.

4. Theory: Get the movie mothballed. Reality: Although I am fascinated by conspiracy theories, they don’t apply here. There are no other investors. The Freakonomics documentary is as unconventional as the book. We hope it will be as iconic, too.

My theory: When we moved the shooting schedule from March to September, in order to better accommodate everyone’s schedules, I suspect the HSX investor community got restless. Moreover, FRKON is traded on an extraordinarily small base. Just a few purchases have a profound impact. It only took a few sellers to send the price hurtling downward. Put simply, now seems like a very opportune time to buy FRKON. The graph used shows its low mark on July 13th – it is up approximately 27% since last week and should continue to climb, just based on this blog post.

As a historical reference, I was an investor and Executive Producer for the critical darling, Paris je T’aime, another film that utilized the talents of several directors. It took several years to get made. Historically, omnibus projects just tend to take a little longer to make.

Sam, I appreciate the spirit of your post. I am a devoted fan of Freakonomics first and a producer second. Like you, I would like to involve as many people as possible in this project. Fortunately, we are poised to announce an innovative way to involve the entire Freakonomics community and attract rogue filmmakers. I’ll speak with Stephen and Steven about it, and we’ll announce it here first!

I am pleased to personally answer any questions the readers have about the Freakonomics documentary.

— Posted by Chad Troutwine

Our previous post

Dont trade on the VP predictions markets. – Dont bet on Hillary Clinton as VP. – Dont listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket. – Dont believe in vice presidential selection committees. – Select well your primary, advanced indicators. –

No Gravatar

The topic of this post is:

Betting &amp- Information

#1. Don&#8217-t trade on the VP predictions markets.

I have stong reservations about those VP prediction markets. Only 2 men in the world know what is going to happen: Barack Obama, and John McCain.

You can&#8217-t divine their final thoughts.

Politicians often lie about their intentions &#8212-they also change mind, frequently.

The decision to name one VP nominee could be made in secret &#8212-without any early warnings.

Surprise is a card that Barack Obama and John McCain could play. Don&#8217-t bet against their final will.

#2. Don&#8217-t believe in &#8220-vice presidential selection committees&#8221-.

Last time, in 2000, a man named Dick Cheney was appointed to head George W. Bush&#8217-s vice presidential selection committee.

He was supposed to scout around to find and assess good candidates.

Surprise, surprise, that fake committee ended up putting Dick Cheney on the Republican ticket &#8212-and the rest is history (Iraq war, etc.).

#3. Don&#8217-t bet on Hillary Clinton as VP.

She does not have the slightest chance.

It&#8217-s highly unlikely that Barack Obama selects her on the Democratic ticket.

Hillary Clinton as VP nominee (and as VP) would present many quasi insurmountable problems.

#4. Don&#8217-t listen to betting bloggers who tell you that Hillary Clinton has a chance to be on the Democratic ticket.

They are clueless.

Don&#8217-t read clueless people. They are a waste of time.

#5. Select well your primary, advanced indicators.

  1. Go to the sources of information. Discard filters. Your insatiable curiosity should drive your search for information.
  2. Use technology to select the best news articles out there. Bookmark Memeorandum for US politics (and TechMeme for information technology) &#8212-they use bloggers&#8217- links to select what&#8217-s hot, a bit like Google&#8217-s PageRank does.
  3. Use the crowd to sense what&#8217-s hot or to discover marginally interesting tidbits. I have 56 friends on Google Reader who share their best items with me. I got many interesting stories that way, every day, from sources I would have never known about, otherwise. (Plus, I receive many e-mails each day from potential sources.)

#6. Choose your bets (and trades) carefully.

Just because an event derivative is cheap doesn&#8217-t mean that it&#8217-s a good bet.

Don&#8217-t pluck down money on a bet unless you&#8217-ve seriously researched the topic by yourself &#8212-and possesses some expertise or experience in that field.

FOLLOW-UP POST: 2 days after my ringing the alarm bell… THE FREE FALL

InTrade

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Republican Vice President Nominee

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Republican Vice-Presidential Nominee at intrade.com

BetFair

Next Vice President:

Democratic Ticket

Democratic Vice President Nominee

Republican Vice President Nominee

NewsFutures

Barack Obama will pick a woman as running mate.

© NewsFutures


Explainer On Prediction Markets

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators (i.e., the primary sources of information). Garbage in, garbage out&#8230- Intelligence in, intelligence out&#8230-

A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and $0 otherwise. When the market price of an X contract is $60, the prediction market believes that candidate X has a 60% chance of winning the election. The price of this event derivative can be interpreted as the objective probability of the future outcome (i.e., its most statistically accurate forecast). A 60% probability means that, in a series of events each with a 60% probability, then 6 times out of 10, the favored outcome will occur- and 4 times out of 10, the unfavored outcome will occur.

Each prediction exchange organizes its own set of real-money and/or play-money markets, using either a CDA or a MSR mechanism.

Decision markets are markets where speculators set prices that estimate the consequences of a decision.

No Gravatar

&#8230- writes Robin Hanson (who is into prediction markets since the late 80s, and who is the smartest scholar on this topic).

I would call that &#8220-decision-aid markets&#8220-, then. And I would have the term &#8220-decision markets&#8221- define the strongest form of this tool, envisioned originally by Robin Hanson (PDF file) &#8212-that is, when the execution of the market-generated decision is compulsory.