Monthly Archives: July 2010

Europe-based bettors would do better without the gambling monopolies.

Right To Bet: RIGHT2BET has exclusively revealed that throughout the World Cup European state betting monopolies offered their customers, on average, 32% worse odds than those available with private betting companies. Monopoly customers wishing to back their home nation in … Continue reading

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Prediction Markets = Social Business Intelligence

Good article about CrowdCast.

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Paul The Octopus can’t be a psychic –but his care taker could.

Right now, if you query Google for “Paul octopus psychic“, you get 3 million results. But that can’t be. Here’s why. To divine the future, Paul The Octopus should send an information backward in time within his own mind. That … Continue reading

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HuffPost on derivatives (and prediction markets)

How Brokers Became Bookies: The Insidious Transformation of Markets Into Casinos

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[I]f [Paul The Octopus] had started with a €10 stake and bet it on all his picks [via BetFair or else], he would have made about €14,000.

Dixit Mike Robb. – The Telegraph Here’s from Wikipedia:

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Cantor Fitzgerald has laid off the entire staff of the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX).

Cantor Fitzgerald has laid off the entire staff of the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX). Via Max Keiser

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InTrade simulates event derivative trading on your iPhone.

Play-money prediction markets. For your 6 y/o.

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Mark Davis [*] was not invited at the party celebrating the 10 years of BetFair.

My take: #1. BetFair is now a bureaucracy. #2. The top BetFair execs are a bunch of dicks. [*] As you all know, Mark Davis was BetFair’s spokesperson for the 10 years.

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David Pennock wants you to believe that InTrade needs Robin Hanson’s automated market maker.

“Our market maker automatically adjusts its level of liquidity depending on trading volume. Prices start off very responsive and, as volume increases, liquidity grows, obviating the need to somehow guess the ‘right’ level before trading even starts.”

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CrowdCast’s Leslie Fine talks about “the cloud and the crowd”.

22 into.

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment