Michael Masnick:
The difference between invention and innovation
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Monthly Archives: January 2010
Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics
– Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’-s blog.
– Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’-s blog.
– Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’-s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all.
– Paul Hewitt:
[…] My point is that the case for prediction markets has not been made, at all. There is a tiny bit of proof that they are as good as alternative methods, and in a very few cases, very slightly better. Also, you need to be aware that even the slightly better prediction markets had the benefit of the alternative forecasting institution available to it. That is, the official forecasters at HP were also participants in the ever-so-slightly better prediction markets. […]
–->- I personally stay away from any discussion about conditional prediction markets (and futarchy). I prefer focusing on the ’-simple’- prediction markets.
The possibility of self-fulfilling or self-defeating prophecies is an issue with any forecasting mechanism where forecasters have any incentives to offer more, vs. less, accurate forecasts. It is not a problem particular to prediction markets.
Robin Hanson does not make the list.
Emile Servan-Schreibers bro on Imus
David Servan-Schreiber on cancer:
Download this post to watch this video —-if your feed reader does not show it to you.
Ray Kurzweil (Robin Hansons guru) got his 1999-2009 predictions … all wrong.
– Michael Anissimov: Kurzweil’s Failed 2009 Predictions
– More at the Next Big Future —- (an excellent blog)
Copenhagen Prediction Market
Felix Salmon is cautiously bullish on prediction markets.
QUESTION: Tell me what you think of the (public, real-money) “-prediction markets”- (a.k.a. betting markets) without citing the names of either Robin Hanson or Justin Wolfers. Thanks. Are they useful, really? If not, then why are econ bloggers in love with them?
FELIX SALMON (#):
I used to be a bigger fan of them, before I discovered their enormous transaction costs:
http://www.felixsalmon.com/004529.html
If and when somebody makes an easy legal and cheap prediction market, I think it will be very useful indeed. For the time being, they’-re interesting and fun.
Prediction market blogger quits InTrade.
New Year Update
Posted by Jesse Livermore on Sunday, January 3, 2010
I’-ve been gone for a while. There just hasn’-t been that much happening on Intrade, and I’-ve been focusing on neuroscience.
Intrade has definitely gotten tougher over the past year. I think the 2008 election drew in a lot of people who weren’-t very good at politics or gambling. By now those people have either lost their money or gotten better. Hopefully the 2010 elections will draw in a new crop.
In the mean time, Intrade’-s management has not done a great job in developing the brand. My impression is that volume is off by more than 50% compared to last year. Chief difficulties:
– Absolutely no advertising whatsoever.
– Diminished interest in politics in an off-year.
– Getting money onto the site requires a lot of determination and a visit to a gas station to buy a Netspend card.
Future updates on this blog will be less-than-daily, basically when I have an opinion about politics that I feel like sharing.
Which industry is more detrimental to society – finance or gambling?
Felix Salmon (#):
Finance, at least in its virulent form of the past 20 years or so. Macau is in much better shape than Iceland, or Dubai. Millions of people genuinely believe they can and will get rich by day-trading stocks and options and whatnot- the ranks of professional gamblers are much smaller and much less delusional.