Monthly Archives: January 2010

The U.S. is headed for a major debt crisis —within 5 to 10 years.

Marc Faber’s outlook for 2010… and later:

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How Monte Carlo simulations can forecast sales

“Monte Carlo simulations run in Excel can transform our limited data sets into statistically valid probability models that give us a much more accurate view into the future.“

Posted in Business, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

HR 2267 = a bill that would legalize Internet gambling in the United States

Will happen in 2010. Bye bye UIGEA.

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Eugene Fama (the father of the efficient markets hypothesis): Here’s historical evidence that momentum trading doesn’t work.

New York Times: What the Past Can’t Tell Investors I am linking to the story so as to create an opportunity for commenting, below.

Posted in Economics, Finance, Financial Markets | Tagged , , , , | 5 Comments

BetUknow combines the new web thinking with the world of sports betting and predictions.

BetUknow –> Their monthly prize pool is currently worth over 300£.

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Critics of the efficient market hypothesis are all hat and no cattle.

Robin Hanson: EMH (at least the interesting version) says prices are our best estimates, so to deny EMH is to assert that prices are predictably wrong. And for EHM violations to be relevant for regulatory policy, price errors must be … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Economics | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

BetFair at the Crunchies 2009

BetFair was one of the gaming sponsors at the Crunchies 2009. Games were “free to play” at the after-event party (at SF’s City Hall). Donations to UCSF were welcomed. If you were there, please comment below.

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Does the NBA have a gambling problem?

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The difference between invention and innovation

Michael Masnick:

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The possibility of self-fulfilling or self-defeating prophecies is an issue with any forecasting mechanism where forecasters have any incentives to offer more, vs. less, accurate forecasts. It is not a problem particular to prediction markets.

Robin Hanson responds to Rajiv Sethi. Follow-up post

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