Monthly Archives: November 2009

Long-term prediction markets are usually very inaccurate for most of their durations.

Posted on November 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt to David Pennock: With all due respect, that testing was done on markets 30 days before they closed. As I noted, time had almost run out on each of the markets. Consequently, one might expect an almost perfect … Continue reading →

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Assume growth.

Posted on November 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse
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You daily shipment of Peter Schiff has arrived.

Posted on November 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse
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Swype versus iPhone

Posted on November 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Samsung Omnia II using Swype VERSUS Apple iPhone: Via Matt Fogarty of CrowdCast

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Robin Hanson’s long-term prediction markets are not very useful for proper decision-making.

Posted on November 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt sends Robin Hanson packing. Paul Hewitt: Just because there are long-term prediction markets does not mean that they are useful. Yes, there are a few long-term markets on ideosphere.com. Rather than dissect each one, I’ll look at two … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Could think tanks impact the socially valuable prediction markets?

Posted on November 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- Matt Yglasias on the possibility of manipulations. – Robin Hanson rebuts scientifically.

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Idea Pageants are no Prediction Markets.

Posted on November 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

An explanatory post by Paul Hewitt. Paul, don’t talk about “shares”. The right vocabulary is “event derivatives” — or, in other contexts, “event derivative markets” and “prediction markets”.

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Environmental Futures

Posted on November 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Environmental Futures – by Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures

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Robin Hanson is confident about long-term prediction markets.

Posted on November 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: At ideosphere.com you will find eight claims that are over fifteen years old and still trading. One of them will be known in a few weeks. Calibration tests have been done on ideosphere prices showing moderate long shot … Continue reading →

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Yes, prediction markets “incentivize accuracy”, but there is no guarantee of success.

Posted on November 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt’s answer to Robin Hanson and Nate Silver: Paul Hewitt: Yes, prediction markets “incentivize accuracy”, but there is no guarantee of success. So far, we know that they *can* work in short (actually very short) term issues. There is … Continue reading →

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