– “-MEPs yesterday (10 March) overwhelmingly rejected the idea of creating an EU single market for online gambling, backing member states’- right to decide on market liberalisation.”-
I described in a previous post why I delisted his company from my list of prediction market consultants.
I want to share a remark with you, today. Here is a man from Holland who recruited by e-mail some US-based “-advisors”- —-one ocean away. One curious online recruit he made is professor Christopher Wlezien, the co-author of an academic paper…- that claims that prediction markets are *NO* better than damped polls:
For now, our results suggest the need for much more caution and less naive cheerleading about election markets on the part of prediction market advocates.
I bet that Florian Riahi didn’-t read that paper, and I bet that professor Christopher Wlezien accepted the advisory slot in order to make the simple point that the “-prediction market advocates”- are just a bunch of baloneys who don’-t read academic papers. 
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Previously:
– How that prediction market consultant in Holland attracts economic advisers on the cheap
– I bet that those academic scholars…
– Should we create a Prediction Market Institute?
– Should we ask doctor David Pennock to super-head it?
– Should we have a Prediction Markets Consortium that will anchor itself somewhere in an educational institution or non-profit foundation?
– Should we follow the ideas of Chris Masse, or should we follow someone else with better ideas?
– Should we let the non-PM companies (Google/Yahoo!/MicroSoft) dictate to us the founding terms of this Prediction Market Institute?
– Shouldn’-t the public prediction exchanges (InTrade, BetFair, HedgeStreet, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HubDub, NewsFutures, etc.) be more involved into the founding of this Prediction Market Institute?
– Should we let David Pennock rename “-The Open Institute Of Prediction Markets”- into a “-Prediction Market Institute”- without my prior agreement?
Jed Christiansen:
[…] When it comes to the first point, forecasting something that the company already forecasts, prediction markets may or may not be an excellent solution. I’ve seen one set of markets that absolutely blew away the accuracy of current forecasts, and I’ve seen other markets that were consistent with current forecasts with little or no accuracy edge. […]
Care to say more about what is the determinant of an EPM success?