Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Monthly Archives: January, 2009

Robin Hanson is famous for everything but prediction markets.

After months of strolling on Twitter

Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets has finally stumbled on a solid prospect.
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Robin Hanson escapes reality, enters the world of fiction.

BetFair – Live Chat Session – Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

BetFair – Live Chat Session – Tuesday, January 27th, 2009 – [This link is only available to the BetFair registered users, alas. In the future, BetFair should make the transcripts of all chat sessions available to the public at large, in my view.]

Here is a transcript, transmitted to me by Mike Robb of BetFair —many [...]

Joseph Stiglitz on Manipulation & Prediction Markets

The Oracle with Max Keiser – BBC World News – 30 January 2009
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Australian Knowledge eXchange

Australian Knowledge eXchange
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Accuracy —not. — REDUX

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Previously
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Interesting analysis from Niall O’Connor

About BetFair USA buying out TV Games Network.
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Accuracy —not.

Yahoo! Research’s challenges:
Wisdom of crowds
How can prediction markets and other group tools help us improve predictions and decisions by harnessing a diverse user base? How can we design markets to maximize forecast accuracy?
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Besides diversity, incentivization is also a crucial issue.
David Pennock didn’t get my memo on investigating efficiency over accuracy, I see.

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Prove that you are a better Internet innovator than David Pennock, and get $5,000 in cash.

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Via Him
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