Monthly Archives: November 2008

Don’t pump up the features of the prediction markets —instead, put the emphasis on their benefits.

Posted on November 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

John Tierney and Jed Christiansen are making the same mistake: they think that people and experts should be impressed by the information aggregation functionality of the prediction markets. They are not —people still prefer reading Nate Silver and Electoral-Vote.com over … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , | 6 Comments

YouTube goes widescreen —so we can get more of Jason Ruspini (if that was really a necessity).

Posted on November 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

YouTube has just increased the width of their videos… but they didn’t increase the width of their video widgets, alas. – Hence, you have to go to the YouTube website to watch Jason Ruspini in (simili) widescreen —the original captation … Continue reading →

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Panos Ipeirotis’s students are too polite to be honest.

Posted on November 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Humor, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Midas Oracle Network | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

What a great Irish democrat. — Shut up your gob; just trade.

Posted on November 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Ethics, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Jason Ruspini’s free fall

Posted on November 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Spot the sudden blood bath in the Jason Ruspini prediction markets.

Posted on November 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse
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John Tierney responds to Chris Masse —but John Tierney is still mistaken about the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets.

Posted on November 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- My second remark to John Tierney: “I was impressed to see” – You are too easily impressed. The nature of the prediction markets is to aggregate information quickly. Traders are very well informed (they do read Nate Silver and … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

ElectoralMap.net has been over-selling InTrade’s predictive power to the public —as John Tierney’s just done.

Posted on November 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- They focus on the predicted number of electoral votes for each presidential candidate. That’s the wrong method. They should look state by state. – They don’t tell the public that InTrade just aggregated the state polls, which were quite … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

“The Intrade bettors expected Mr. Obama to end up with 364 votes in the Electoral College —one less than he actually got.”

Posted on November 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

My remark to John Tierney: InTrade got it [almost] spot on because they were wrong on Missouri (which was predicted to go for Obama but went to McCain) and wrong too on Indiana (which was predicted to go for McCain … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

The one thing you didn’t know about NewsFutures because our good doctor Servan-Schreiber never came on Midas Oracle to tell it.

Posted on November 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Each NewsFutures prediction market can display a “graphical order book”: – Cute. Congrats to Emile and his team for this. -

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Charting System | Tagged , , | 1 Comment