Daily Archives: September 27, 2008

Exago Markets, Portugal, E.U.

- As I understand it: – Prediction market consultancy in Portugal; – They probably licensed Xpree‘s software for enterprise prediction markets. UPDATE: They created their own software for enterprise prediction markets. Best wishes to them. -

Posted in Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Are we witnessing manipulation attempts on the Florida prediction market at InTrade?

Florida went blue around 8:51 PM, on September 26, 2008… for a brief period of time: – The Democratic side: – Tip via Lance Fortnow – Previously:Is InTrade being manipulated? – UPDATE: See Jason Ruspini’s expert analysis in the comment … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Prediction market journalism becomes mainstream.

A good enough (although atrociously elliptic) implementation is provided by Wall Street wiz (and ex convict) Henry Blodget. Many modules are missing, but it’s good enough. Henry Blodget made an effort on data visualization —something Justin Wolfers never did.

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Historical Prediction Markets

The ProQuest P.R. machine sends Koleman Strumpf’s research paper on the historical prediction markets to all journalists, so as to generate good Press for ProQuest, and it works fine, as intended. [CORRECTION: Jack Shafer found the Strumpf paper on his … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Betting, Exchanges & Markets, History, Prediction Journalism, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

All against the BetFair premium charges

Excellent analysis from the “Punt” blogger. Serial bet winners are accused (that’s the word) to withdraw money from the BetFair machine, compelling BetFair to attract new money from newbies at a high marketing cost, and thus BetFair has decided to … Continue reading

Posted in Betting, Ethics, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Transaction Costs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 16 Comments

The updated listing of blogs on prediction markets

The full list: Andrew “Bert” Black — Category: “BetFair“ Ask Markets Ashish Singal Betdaq Exchange Views Betting @ BetFair Betting Market Bo Cowgill — Category: “prediction markets” Caveat Bettor — Category: “prediction markets“ Chris Hibbert — Category: “prediction markets“ Consensus … Continue reading

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