– Legal restrictions for US traders on foreign prediction exchanges (BetFair, etc.)-
– Transaction fees (you would need to operate on 2 exchanges)-
– Currency risks and cost for hedging on that.
Eric Crampton (a Canadian exiled in New Zealand) says he has managed to turn a buck, though, by arbitraging between InTrade and iPredict New Zealand. He also makes 2 theoretical points. Go read it.
CNBC video + CNBC video #2
The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube:
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Nate Silver mentioned a Poker player. Why?
Our previous post on the InTrade micro-manipulations
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I am not surprised at all by the results.
Maybe a non-profit organization should sponsor PunditWatch.
Robin Hanson (mister “-Track Records”-), take notice.
– New York Times
– Another one bites the dust:
(Sorry for those who have a narrow screen and don’-t see the right part of this big chart.)
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According to InTrade, here are the banks that could fail next:
– Bank United Financial
– Downey Financial
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External Links About The Big Bailout:
– Reason magazine have collected opinions from the leading free-market economists on the Bailout issue.
There is no reason to expect the correct solution from the same people who created the crisis in the first place and who until very recently thought the economy was strong and that there was little or no chance of recession. [Mark Thornton]
This is a financial coup d’-etat, with the only limitation the $700 billion balance sheet figure. [Yves Smith]
– Mike Linksvayer has some additional good links…- and some strong words, too. 
– Arnold Kling:
– NYT:
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UPDATE: Paul Krugman
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UPDATE: The Manhattan Institute on financial crisis and the Bailout
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UPDATE: