I don’-t have a link, as the Bloomberg tape just printed it at 12:15pm EST. Will update when available.
Unfortunately, Intrade was down, so I could not check where things were trading.
He who laughs last, right Chris?
UPDATE: Jack Tapper says there is a hoax email out there, which could be the basis for the Bloomberg article.
Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.
– Lawsuit about the ineligibility of Barack Obama for the US presidency. —- Not a hoax.
– Pranksters are sending false text messages. –- Did Caveat Bettor fall in this trap?
– Texas Rep. Chet Edwards is the surprise just out of the hat.
BBC News:
According to Tom Snee of the Iowa Electronic Market, at Iowa University, futures markets need more hard information than they get in the veepstakes, to reliably predict a result.
Markets are very good at predicting elections, he says – but not choices being made inside Barack Obama’-s or John McCain’-s head.
Thank God for the BBC.
Thank God for the Iowa Electronic Markets.
Shame on John Delaney —-over 3 generations of Delaneys.
Other than Tom Snee (the IEM spin doctor), Chris Masse and Justin Wolfers are the only prediction market analysts to have sent out warnings about the VP-candidate prediction markets.
– What was the best prediction market ever?
– What was the worst prediction market ever?
Think about that, and I’-ll give you my answer very soon.
I want you to think hard about it over this week-end.
Eat fish, and drink fruit juices.
PS: I am not talking about a prediction exchange, but about a specific prediction market (i.e., about a specific topic, like whether North Korea will fire a missile, or whatever).