Daily Archives: April 19, 2008

When gambling meets Wall Street – Proposal for a brand-new kind of finance-based lottery

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No GravatarFolks, do watch this short (but non-embeddable) video.

Jason Ruspini or Michael Giberson, please provide some pointers, if you have time. Thanks.

UPDATE: See their brainy comments, just below.

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Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • BetFair-TradeFair has won its second Queen’s Award for Enterprise in its eight-year history.
  • Inkling Markets is one of the “Hot Companies To Watch In 2008”, according to Forrester.
  • Plenty of great news coming from Inkling Markets in the coming weeks
  • ??? charity-driven prediction markets OR social issue prediction markets ???
  • That can’t be Nigel Eccles of HubDub.
  • The Marketing Of The Reading Of The Public Prediction Markets = What Robin Hanson has deep trouble with, and what the prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair) haven’t fully computed yet
  • In 2013, Enterprise 2.0 will be a $4.6 billion industry. Good. But they forgot to mind the enterprise prediction markets.

Publish a comment on the BetFair forum, get arrested.

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BetFair:

We would like to remind those posting on the forum that offensive or defamatory comments are in breach of the terms of forum use and will result in forum rights being revoked. Forum users should be aware that they are fully and personally responsible for comments they post on the forum – and may be answerable for such comments. In this context, Betfair has not contested previous and increasing court applications requiring us to reveal personal details of individuals making forum postings. Not contesting such applications will continue to be our policy.

As a result, please do not assume that you can post without any risk of your identity being disclosed to either the subject of your post or his/her lawyers. Should you not be able to defend your comments it is very likely that you could face very considerable financial consequences.

You should also be aware that certain posts and conduct could be contrary to the [U.K.’s] Protection from Harassment Act 1997 and could give rise to both civil and criminal proceedings. We will have no hesitation in disclosing identities to the police, or civil court, should they receive a complaint.

Finally, please note that Betfair will shortly be making important changes to the way the forum is run. In future, you will only be able to post on the forum if full ‘know your customer’ (KYC) checks for you have been completed.

Thank you to the majority of forum contributors who continue to use the forum appropriately, in accordance with the forum rules and the spirit of open but responsible discussion.

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Details.

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Collective Error = Average Individual Error – Prediction Diversity

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The Brain has a comment on Scott Page&#8217-s presentation [PPT file] about his book, The Difference:

One question is whether there is a way to usefully systematize that principle by trader selection or via something other than a strict market such as an (incentivised) weighted average system like HP’s BRAIN. The latter type of system will work better in some domains but in general might be less robust because it constantly runs the danger of being overfit to past trader correlations (or apparent expertise, risk appetites, etc). In general, trader self-selection and self-weighting might be more accurate. If you have some metric of “fundamental” trader similarity like proximity, org chart relations, demographic data – as opposed to past trading correlations only, that might work better in terms of expert-selection/expert-weighting.

The Difference

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • BetFair-TradeFair has won its second Queen’s Award for Enterprise in its eight-year history.
  • Inkling Markets is one of the “Hot Companies To Watch In 2008”, according to Forrester.
  • Plenty of great news coming from Inkling Markets in the coming weeks
  • ??? charity-driven prediction markets OR social issue prediction markets ???
  • That can’t be Nigel Eccles of HubDub.
  • The Marketing Of The Reading Of The Public Prediction Markets = What Robin Hanson has deep trouble with, and what the prediction exchanges (e.g., InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair-TradeFair) haven’t fully computed yet
  • In 2013, Enterprise 2.0 will be a $4.6 billion industry. Good. But they forgot to mind the enterprise prediction markets.

The definitive proof that its presently impossible to practice prediction market journalism with BetFair.

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Homer's brain
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Unlike InTrade and NewsFutures, BetFair does not deliver any chart after that the prediction market has expired &#8212-leaving the blog post that linked to it totally blank (in a digital world where old content is King, and where Google sends traffic to old blog posts).

The BetFair marketing department is staffed by arrogant incompetents who are incapable of establishing a working relationship with prediction market bloggers like me.

There is nothing more important for our industry than the uprising of new blogs that would hot-link to the charts of prediction markets. The BetFair marketing team hasn&#8217-t computed that yet, in spite of all efforts made in their direction.

Of all the prediction market firms I talk with, BetFair is the most impermeable to the prediction market approach: their degree of arrogance is inversely proportional to their level of competency.

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US Masters 2008 prediction markets