How to make a MILLION POUNDS on the rotting corpse of David Daviss political career (to be used for ethical purposes only)

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1). For the form guide in this two-horse race, please see:



2). Mainstream bookmakers such as Paddy Power are not currently putting prices on the Haltemprice and Howden by-election on their website.

Yesterday, however, I emailed [email protected] to ask them what price they would offer for the Green Party to win, and I was given the price of 14-1.
Therefore step one is to email Paddy Power at [email protected] , or call them on
UK – 08000 565 275
Ireland – 1800 238 888
International – +353 1 4040120,

or pop into one of their shops, and ask them to offer you price on Green Party to win.

You can of course also try other mainstream bookmakers.

Paddy Power Politics Website:

3). If you have been quoted a price, and you wish to (POSSIBLY) make a million pounds (to be used for ethical purposes), divide ?1,000,000 by the price quoted, and lay a bet of that amount. For example, at 14-1, you need to place ?71,428.57. If you do not have such a large amount of money, and are unwilling to risk such a large amount, you can of course bet a smaller amount, depending on the minimum bet rules of the bookmakers you visit. For example, ?10 at 14-1 might make you ?140 back, should Shan Oakes (Green) get elected on 10th July 2008, which looks increasingly likely. Of course, you can maximise your winnings by creating syndicates where you pool your resources with friends, family, and other activists.

4). If you cannot get a price from the mainstream bookmakers, you may be able to put on smaller bets at Betfair. Betfair uses a system whereby you bet against others who bet in the opposite direction, so there are tight limits on how much you can bet based on the liquidity in the opposite direction. Post-credit crunch, liquidity is at a bit of a premium, so you may only be able to put on tiny amounts. However, as an example, ?2 at 40-1 might reap you ?78 (after Betfair have removed their commission) or ?11 at 15-1 might reap back ?154.00.

Betfair&#8217-s matched bets are constantly in flux, so it is worth monitoring it if you wish to use it.

Betfair Politics Zone:

Betfair Haltemprice and Howden:

5). Please also use InTrade. I haven&#8217-t worked out how to use this yet.

6). Obviously, it is possible for you to lose your money. If you are not willing to accept that risk, please do not bet. Furthermore, if you believe all gambling to be wrong, or gambling on politics to be wrong, please ignore this advice entirely.

7). If you do bet and Shan Oakes is elected, please consider sending a proportion of your earnings (eg half) to the Green Party. If not, please at least consider sending a proportion to a social or environmental organisation. Please also consider sending me 1% of your earnings at [email protected], as a reward for having come up with the idea. Of course, copyleft ideas cannot be copyrighted, and you are under no obligation whatsoever to send me the 1%, though I would appreciate it enormously.

8). If Shan Oakes is not elected (which looks increasingly unlikely), please do not come after me (at [email protected]) with malice aforethought. Any risks taken are taken on by those betting, and candidates can be unelected as much as elected, just as house prices can (and are) coming down. The housing bubble has burst. So has David Davis&#8217-s so-called &#8216-freedom&#8217- bandwagon, whose wheels didn&#8217-t work after all. Davis supported 28 days without trial and voted for ID cards in 2004, so his &#8216-crusade for liberty&#8217- is, very obviously, naked leadership positioning. Verily the Emperor weareth no clothes. That doesn&#8217-t mean, however, that the voters of H&amp-H are incapable of returning him to rob us off our taxation on his salary, expenses, and second home allowances all over again, and take us into another ill-judged and illegal colonial misadventure such as an invasion of Iran. Hopefully, however, they will see sense and choose not to, and instead reward Shan Oakes&#8217-s positivity by returning her to Westminster with a landslide.

9). To help the flow, please donate as much as you can to the Shan Oakes campaign. You can donate using the online button at

It&#8217-s the ecolonomy, stupid!





Love from Paddy Hedges
Anti-Hedge Fund Manager (AHFM)


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The image above is static &#8212-it&#8217-s a screen shot of the chart widget, not the chart widget itself. (I haven&#8217-t had access to their code, see, so I am not able to embed it here for you.) To view their updated widget, right-click on the image above, and open the link into a new browser tab.

  1. First time I see a big UK newspaper associates &#8220-BetFair&#8221- with the term &#8220-prediction markets&#8221-.
  2. Their explainer is quite acceptable.
  3. That is a great step for BetFair. Congrats.
  4. I&#8217-d explain things differently &#8212-and I dislike that they suggest that the prediction markets can greatly outperform the polls, described as not &#8220-accurate enough&#8221-. Pollsters do the best they can, it seems to me.
  5. The output that BetFair hands out and the journalists seek are probabilities (expressed in percentages) &#8212-not those damn decimal/digital odds.
  6. The chart widget they use is crappy. I already discussed it. It has usability problems with FireFox. It does not go into feeds. And it&#8217-s not readable enough. Look at the alternative, just below. (The only reason those idiots of journalists are using that crappy widget is that BetFair customized it for them, by putting their fucking newspaper trademark on top of the widget.)
  7. Anyway, the dead-tree, print newspapers are dying, and the future belongs to blog networks. :-D

The chart below is better&#8230- more readable&#8230- and it goes into feeds&#8230- – But those idiots at the Telegraph won&#8217-t show it to you because it is not pinned with the &#8220-Telegraph&#8221- trademark.

Please, BetFair, do give us the possibility to have a wider time period for the chart data.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.