Journalism Failures – Big Time

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In February 2001, Fortune magazine named ENRON the &#8220-most innovative company&#8221-.

In October 2007, Robin Hanson, on the Overcoming Bias blog, re-published the falsehood that James Surowiecki (and 3 other book authors in their respective book) made a mistake about Francis Galton in his book, The Wisdom Of Crowds.

In January 2008, the &#8220-BetFair Prof&#8221- (Leighton Vaughan-Williams) claimed, on the BetFair blog, that the &#8220-betting markets&#8221- foresaw the Republican race in the Michigan primary.

In January 2008, Risk magazine named SOCIETE GENERALE (recently busted by one of its traders, which lead to a loss of 7.2 billion dollars) the &#8220-equity derivatives house of the year&#8221-.

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TAKEAWAY: Either by complete incompetence or by lack of investigation means, journalism is not up to its lofty goal &#8212-telling the truth to people.

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Risk magazine

(Via Marc Andreessen.)

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Jerome Kerviel, soon to be named &#8220-person of the year&#8221- by Risk magazine? :-D

Jerome Kerviel

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Societe Generale Logo

Societe General Tower in Paris

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

The BetFair blog is not a serious publication.

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I just got it that professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams&#8217-s story published on the official BetFair blog and the BetFair compound chart published on top of his story should be understood independently from each other, as the BetFair chart was pasted there by the BetFair blog editor.

(I have updated all my previous posts on the topic with the explainer above.)

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TAKEAWAY:

  1. Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams talked about &#8220-betting markets&#8221- in his story. Those &#8220-betting markets&#8221- were not defined precisely on that page.
  2. The BetFair compound chart, pasted by the BetFair blog editor on top of Professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams&#8217- story, has lead readers (like the ultra-vigilant Niall O&#8217-Connor) to believe that &#8220-betting markets&#8221- meant the BetFair betting markets.
  3. It was probably not the case, in the writer&#8217-s mind. To be sure, though, an explainer should be issued by the BetFair blog.
  4. The BetFair blog editor has an omelette on his/her face.
  5. I told you many times that the Betfair blog is a piece of crap.
  6. A writer for this blog told us so, too.
  7. As I said many times, web journalism is not for anybody. It&#8217-s a specialty trade. It requires vertical skills. And, more precisely, prediction market journalism, in our digital times, is difficult and complex. It&#8217-s sad to see that the BetFair-TradeFair executives haven&#8217-t computed that.

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UPDATE: The BetFair blog has added a new label on the infamous compound chart&#8230-

Compound chart - BetFair blog fiasco

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NEXT: Did the BetFair blog use trading data from InTrade to hint at BetFair&#8217-s accuracy??

Care to revise your statement, sir?

No GravatarJustin Wolfers:

In a few years, we may regard the second half of the 20th century as the aberration in which the press used polls rather than markets to track political races,” Justin Wolfers, a business professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, wrote in an e-mail message. “And in the 21st century, we may return to the habits of the early 20th century, reporting on political races through the lens of prediction markets rather than polls.

MP3 file

Previously: Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Bzzzzzzzzz…
  • Bzzzzzzzzz…
  • “No offense, but I think Radley Balko is the most valuable blogger in America right now.”
  • Are you a better predictor than John McCain?
  • What does climate scientist James Annan think of InTrade’s global warming prediction markets?
  • Inkling Markets, one year later
  • One trader’s view on BetFair’s new bet-matching logic