The idea that betting could help us gain clarity on some controversial scientific questions has first been proposed by George Mason economics professor Robin Hanson in 1992 in a paper entitled “-Could Gambling Save Science”- and available online here: http://hanson.gmu.edu/gamble.html
The benefits of creating prediction markets about controversial climate-change issues in particular is further developed on Nate Silver’-s blog and in this presentation given at CalTech in 2004: http://us.newsfutures.com/home/environmentalFutures.html
“-Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA) assailed the authors of SuperFreakonomics for participating in the effort to deceive the American public on the science of global warming, in particular for their “-absolute deception”- in their portrayal of the views of climate scientist Ken Caldeira. He criticized the book during a hearing of the House Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming investigating forged letters sent on behalf of the coal industry opposing climate legislation.”-
Narrator: “Every year, more and more ice must be dumped into the ocean to cool the earth, thus solving the problem forever.”-
Little Girl: “-But . . .”-
– Read all the comments there.
UPDATE: Harvard Business Review
The contract, listed at Inkling Markets, is based on the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index, reported monthly.
Caveat Bettor, please take a look at that.
Mike Linksvayer, please take a look at that.
…- that one is for U.