Profits to be down at Betfair

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Betfair will this week announce its results for the year to 30 April 2007.

The past twelve months have seen a significant increase in the rate of investment by Betfair, as the company has sought to not only consolidate its position as the world&#8217-s leading betting exchange operator, but also, to broaden its product portfolio, so as to create a one-stop-shop solution for online gambling, under the Betfair umbrella.

Betfair&#8217-s Australian based betting exchange went live at the end of August 2006- and in recently filed accounts, Betfair&#8217-s Australian partner PBL (50%) said that the business continues to build critical mass in its first full year of operations, and that its share of after tax losses for the year was $2 million.

In October 2006, Betfair Poker left CryptoLogic Inc. to move to an in-house technology solution- whilst in July 2007 Betfair announced that it had executed a non-binding Letter of Intent with Harrah’s License Company LLC, an affiliate of Harrah’s Entertainment, Inc which designated Betfair.com as the “Presenting Sponsor” of the World Series of Poker (WSOP) Europe through 2011.

In October 2006, Betfair broadened its product portfolio with the launch of an online casino. This followed the previous launch of Baccarat (launched June 2006), Blackjack (launched November 2005), Jacks or Better, Roulette and Omaha Hi (launched April 2007)- all with zero house edge.

At the end of November 2006 Betfair announced that it had acquired Portway Press Limited, the owner of Timeform for somewhere in the region of ?15m.

Looking ahead, Betfair will launch its betting exchange service in Italy and will also enter into the area of financial spread betting.

A decline in revenue growth and profitability is anticipated- with profit before tax likely to be down somewhere in the region of 33%.

There are those that will argue that the company should have stayed focused on its core betting exchange business- and I for one must question whether the company&#8217-s investment in online poker is going to reap the forecast dividends.

[cross-posted from Betting Market]

Employees talk about their internal prediction markets around the water fountain.

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Jenny Ambrozek:

A thread among the presenters [of the 2007 Consensus Point conference] was how prediction markets expand people connections in organizations. Through market participation employees from disparate parts of organizations discover unknown people with similar interests and unexpected talents. Market activity becomes a thread in employee conversations. Previously unrecognized expertise emerges through successful trading and listing on leader boards.

It makes people talk more together. Good. Now, are those internal prediction markets accurate and do they have useful predictive power? :-D

UPDATE: Justin Wolfers on the 2007 Consensus Point conference + Jed Christiansen on the 2007 Consensus Point conference

The Consumer Behavior of Prediction Markets

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Is anyone aware of any research (scholarly or industry-based) examining bias in prediction markets, including how consumers form judgments in prediction markets and the extent of bias in those judgments.

In fact, I’d be interested in any research that looks at prediction markets from the consumer’s perspective. For example, are there any papers that rigorously examine the psychology of why prediction markets have the potential to be more accurate than other forms of forecasting? I&#8217-m aware of papers that look at the design, incentives, management, manipulation and regulatory issues, and I&#8217-ve seen some discussion of the cognitive biases (drawing on behavioral decision theory) that can arise (e.g. assimilation-contrast bias), but I haven&#8217-t seen anything that looks at things from the consumer behavior theory perspective.

One interesting thing about the eLab eXchange (currently featuring &#8220-non-trading prediction markets&#8221-) is that we can use it to test some theories about how consumer judgments are influenced by other consumers (as opposed to the heuristics they might use to make judgments or the cognitive biases that influence their judgments) and about how these judgments can be influenced by various market feedback mechanisms we can set up.

Before we start designing some experiments, I want to make sure we’re not reinventing the wheel.

I’d be grateful for any pointers to research in this area.

Feel free to email me at [email protected]

Chris Masse away from the computer + WordPress 2.3 upgrade

&#8212-

#1. I&#8217-ll be traveling abroad this week (= end of September 2007). So, I&#8217-ll be slow to respond to e-mails and slow to blog &#8212-if any. All depends whether I can find ways to connect my laptop.

&#8212-

#2. Upgraded to WordPress 2.3. Check the new features. One problem, though: there was at least one bad plugin which messed with Midas Oracle powered by WP 2.3. I first pointed to WP-Cache, but it turned out that I did accuse it wrongfully. (Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets will confirm that I&#8217-m too quick to emit a negative judgment on things and people. :-D ) Actually, the faulty plugin was Post by Author, which is now deactivated on Midas Oracle (until the plugin author fixes the problem).

Here&#8217-s the gibberish I was getting:

WordPress database error: [Table &#8216-moorg.wp_post2cat&#8217- doesn&#8217-t exist]
SELECT ID, post_title, post_date, post_category FROM wp_posts, wp_post2cat WHERE post_author = 29 AND wp_posts.ID = wp_post2cat.post_id AND ID != 4625 AND post_status = &#8216-publish&#8217- AND post_date &lt- NOW() GROUP BY ID ORDER BY post_date DESC LIMIT 6

That is all, folks. Read the previous blog posts by Chris. F. Masse:

Global Warming prediction exchange is set up.

Here, courtesy of Inkling Markets. It&#8217-s only $5,000 of play money per trader. But that&#8217-s still a start, so please sign up and let&#8217-s see if we can make the world a better place (i.e. do we invest more in this issue or other issues).

Let me know if you have improvement suggestions. Thanks in advance!

Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.

Read the previous blog posts by Caveat Bettor:

  • The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.
  • The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
  • Latest Intrade v. Zogby contest is up.
  • Who said prediction markets were perfect?
  • Intrade markets and Zogby polls agree in New Hampshire
  • The Iowa Showdown: Zogby v. Intrade

The Inkling explainers on prediction markets are absolutely awesome.

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It&#8217-s a fantastic set of practical explainers that Adam Siegel has built. It is well written, and these documents aggregate well many years of experience from the standpoint of a DIY betting exchange manager. It&#8217-s really good material, which I read many times this afternoon with great avidity.

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To find the Inkling explainers:

– go to Inkling Markets

– click on &#8220-Run a free private prediction market pilot&#8220–

– fill in the form-

– go to your newly created prediction exchange (betting exchange)-

– on the right pane, go to &#8220-help / reference&#8221-.

&#8212-

US Online Gambling: Dont bet on it.

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One or two traders were caught out Friday, following a late afternoon surge in the share price of both Sportingbet and PartyGaming. Sportingbet shares were up 15.9% at 43 3/4p whilst PartyGaming climbed 9.5% to 26p.

Two factors may have been responsible for the rise- firstly, the fact that the tiny Caribbean resort may be about to use a World Trade Organization ruling to compel the United States to legalize online gaming- second, a rather spurious belief that the Interactive Media Entertainment &amp- Gaming Association might be successful in its lawsuit against the United States Department of Justice, in which the industry body requests a Temporary Restraining Order against the enforcement of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act.

The chances of either event forcing the US&#8217-s hand, any time soon, are slim- nonetheless these shares feed on rumour and it would be no surprise to see more speculative buying in the weeks ahead.

The Financial Times, meanwhile, has learned that the US proposal in response to the WTO ruling, involves opening opportunities in the storage, warehouse services and technical testing sectors to make up for the gaming restrictions. Gambling groups are believed to be pressing the European Union to reject the offer as inadequate.

Cross-posted from Betting Market by Niall O&#8217-Connor

Enterprise 3.0: new representations, new markets

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DiamondExchangeLater this week, NewsFutures will have another great opportunity to introduce prediction markets into the consciousness of mighty American businessmen and women.

At the invitation of the organizers of the September 2007 DiamondExchange event, I will take part in a panel discussion on &#8220-technologies to raise your organization&#8217-s IQ&#8221- led by Chunka Mui, author of Unleashing the Killer App. The exclusive event features an outstanding list of speakers including Marvin Zonis, professor emeritus of the University of Chicago, Dan Bricklin, inventor of VisiCalc, Cory Ondrejka, who leads the team developing Second Life, and Ray Kurtzweil, who needs no introduction a all.

The event, titled &#8220-Enterprise 3.0: new representations, new markets&#8221-, is organized by the high-powered consulting firm Diamond (Nasdaq: DTPI). It&#8217-s nice to see that, having preceded the &#8220-Web 2.0&#8243- bubble, prediction markets are already moving past it and being associated with the number 3&#8230-

The GreenbrierThe event will be held at the famous Greenbrier, in White Sulfur Springs, WV, whose tag line is &#8220-defining luxury since 1778&#8243-! Needless to say, I look forward to this fantastic opportunity to evangelize this particular crowd about the virtues of prediction markets.

&#8211-Emile (for NewsFutures)

[cross-posted from the NewsFutures blog]

Inkling Free Pilot Program

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We try not to post directly about our platform or new clients on Midas Oracle, leaving it up to Chris to highlight the good&#8230- and the bad :) &#8230- but we thought people might be interested in a new capability we just launched this morning since it&#8217-s actually something everyone can try. You can now go to http://www.inklingmarkets.com and sign up for a free trial of a private, fully-featured marketplace. Just choose a name and URL for your marketplace, fill in your desired username and password, and you&#8217-re off and running. From day 1, when we launched Inkling, we have been big believers in allowing people to try before they buy, and this is the latest extension of that &#8211-hopefully making it even easier to try our platform beyond just being active on our public marketplace. This is something you can securely run inside your organization or publicly. We&#8217-ve also created a new help/reference section you&#8217-ll see as an administrator when you login to your marketplace. There are lots of lessons learned and best practices about managing a marketplace, providing appropriate incentives, creating effective markets, etc. Let us know if you have any questions/feedback or run in to any issues.

ADAM SIEGEL OF INKLING MARKETS VALIDATES CHRIS MASSES CONCEPT OF X GROUPS.

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All the reference material posted by Inkling in its marketplace area is awesome. High quality. Very interesting read. In the section highlighted below, Adam Siegel explains how important is the relationship between the blogs and the prediction markets. Which is what I said from day one. It&#8217-s time that the world recognizes me as the most forward thinker in the field of prediction markets. :-D

The explainer below on trader incentives is awesome, by the way. Go reading it, folks.

X Group Inkling