InTrade has just opened (and not publicized yet on their site feed) a set of global warming prediction markets —-more exactly, event derivative markets on whether the world’-s biggest national governments will soon agree to reduce CO2 emissions under the UNFCCC treaty. They are, in my view, more interesting than the pitiful BetFair’-s prediction markets on global warming (2 out of 3, I mean) for the same two reasons (but which work positively, this time):
- Uninformed traders will be able to trade their opinions. Most of the US citizens have an opinion (positive or negative) on the US Congress politics and the federal legislations.
- Informed traders (hopefully, the market makers) will be able to follow some advanced indicators (in the Washington D.C. media, for instance) pertaining to this upcoming legislation (if any).
Once again, it shows that John Delaney’-s InTrade is the King of the Prediction Markets —-and that BetFair-TradeFair is painfully playing catch-up.
Here’-s the InTrade contract statement for the US —- (USA agrees before end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by 10% or more by year 2025):
A contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if the United States agrees before the end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by the amount specified in the contract by the year 2025 (relative to the 1990 emissions baseline).
A contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if the United States DOES NOT agree before the end of 2009 to reduce CO2 emissions by the amount specified in the contract by the year 2025 (relative to the 1990 emissions baseline).
Any reduction target must be part of a United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) [*] agreement reached before the end of 2009. Any agreement to reduce CO2 emissions made outside of the UNFCC will not be considered for expiry purposes.
A reduction target does not have to be ratified for the contracts to be expired – only agreed to under the UNFCC. [*]
Expiry will be based on official and public announcements from US officials or the UNFCC Secretariat, as reported in three independent and reliable media sources.
Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.
The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.
Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account – Exchange Rule 1.4
Please contact the exchange by emailing [email protected] if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.
Please contact the Exchange if you have any query or uncertainty (including how it may be settled) about this Contract, the Rule above or the Contract Rules before you trade.
There are 4 other contracts (E.U., Russia, Japan, and China+India).
[*] There are 3 “-C”-s actually. Those Irish bozos are not even able to spell it correctly. –->- UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). Look at the logo, below.
UPDATE: Mike Linksvayer’-s comment…-
They’d be even more interesting if offered in combination with electoral outcomes and more yet if offered in combination with climate outcomes. I’m happy to see BINLADEN+MUSHARRAF contracts recently added, but volume is almost nil. Intrade (or someone new) will need better technology to be really socially interesting — be a source of many contingent probabilities. Many explicit combination contracts is just unworkable. I’m also happy to see Intrade offering several multi-year contracts, of which the climate ones are a good example. I believe the Google Lunar contract is currently the longest term one, expiring in 2012. I’m rooting for Intrade and for something better to come along, simultaneously.
UPDATE #2: I have just found out, this Sunday afternoon, thanks to a tip from Ralf Martin, that the InTrade global warming prediction markets were set up in collaboration with the London School of Economics’- Centre for Economic Perfomance.
UPDATE #3: InTrade have corrected the spelling on Saturday, December 15, 2007.
NEXT: The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for floating event derivatives on global warming.
Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:
- Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
- US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
- If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
- THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
- “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
- Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.
- Tom W. Bell rebuts the puritan and sterile petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).