InTrades sudden and puzzled interest in… alchemy…!!!

Posted on June 13, 2008 by admin

Dr Arata&#8217-s experiment on cold fusion to be replicated in peer-reviewed scientific journal on/before 31 Dec 2009

This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if Dr Yoshiaki Arata&#8217-s Cold Fusion experiment is replicated in a peer-reviewed scientifc journal on/before 31 Dec 2008.

The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if Dr Yoshiaki Arata&#8217-s Cold Fusion experiment is NOT replicated in a peer-reviewed scientifc journal on/before 31 Dec 2008.

Details of the experiment can be found HERE.

Expiry will be based on publications in peer-reviewed scientific journals, as reported by three independent and reliable media sources.

Due to the nature of this contract please also see Contract Rule 1.7 Unforeseen Circumstances.

The Exchange reserves the right to invoke Contract Rule 1.8 (Time Protection) if deemed appropriate.

Any changes to the result after the contract has expired will not be taken into account – Exchange Rule 1.4

Please contact the exchange by emailing [email protected] if you have any questions regarding this contract before you place a trade.

Important:
Please contact the Exchange if you have any query or uncertainty (including how it may be settled) about this Contract, the Rule above or the Contract Rules before you trade.

–

Wikipedia

Robin Hanson on recent developments

Robin Hanson created a &#8220-Cold Fusion&#8221- event derivative market in 1990.

Robin Hanson talked up cold fusion in his first prediction market paper.

–

I&#8217-m skeptical.

Google News is mute.

–
Price for Dr Yoshiaki Arataa€™s Cold Fusion Experiment at intrade.com

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

VIDEO: The financial markets hacker who will impress Jason Ruspini
VIDEO: WeatherBill caught on tape
You, the Midas Oracle readers, are a bunch of lazy bastards…!!!… — Take that, loafers…!!!…
Prediction Markets within the Forecasting Community
Devoting the whole NBC Nightly News bulletin to Tim Russert’s passing was worst than beaming out porn.
COLD FUSION: The purpose of this post is to give you the scientific explainer link I forgot to publish (at inception) in my previous post.
Forecasting Election Outcomes

Psstt… Spot that comment, on Google News, about… bellwethers… from a political scientist.

Posted on June 13, 2008 by admin

&#8220-Come November, the bellwether election predictor module might be one additional source others might want to take a look at when calling a state red or blue.&#8221-

Spot in passing the mention of our&#8230- &#8220-high-stakes, casino-style prediction markets&#8221-&#8230-
–

Suffolk University – Political Research Center

–

INSIDERs STORY: The insightful strategic business report about The Evil Empire that Henry Berg does not want you to see

Posted on June 13, 2008 by admin

The best thing I read this Friday morning.

Don&#8217-t you love the Web? Blogging employees can rat on their boss &#8212-for our information or entertainment.

–

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

Devoting the whole NBC Nightly News bulletin to Tim Russert’s passing was worst than beaming out porn.
COLD FUSION: The purpose of this post is to give you the scientific explainer link I forgot to publish (at inception) in my previous post.
Forecasting Election Outcomes
GOOD NEWS: Ron Paul is now blogging. — THE CHERRY ON TOP OF THE CAKE: Ron Paul is using WordPress.org… just like Midas Oracle does.
InTrade’s sudden and puzzled interest in… alchemy…!!!
Psstt… Spot that comment, on Google News, about… “bellwethers”… from a political scientist.
Prediction markets are about lowering transaction costs. That’s how sports come in.

Unlike other countries, the United States of America defends the freedom to offend in speech.

Posted on June 12, 2008 by admin

Hate Speech = Free Speech

Very interesting New York Times discussion about the First Amendment &#8212-with international comparisons.

–

At Midas Oracle, some do vigorously exercise the freedom to piss people off.

–

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

Psstt… Spot that comment, on Google News, about… “bellwethers”… from a political scientist.
INSIDER’s STORY: The insightful strategic business report about The Evil Empire that Henry Berg does not want you to see
Prediction markets are about lowering transaction costs. That’s how sports come in.
The birth certificate of the next president of the United States of America –maybe
The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.
The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.

CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.

Posted on June 12, 2008 by admin

–

Erik Snowberg @ CalTech

Erik Snowberg @ LinkedIn

–

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

Psstt… Spot that comment, on Google News, about… “bellwethers”… from a political scientist.
INSIDER’s STORY: The insightful strategic business report about The Evil Empire that Henry Berg does not want you to see
Prediction markets are about lowering transaction costs. That’s how sports come in.
The birth certificate of the next president of the United States of America –maybe
The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.
The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
Unlike other countries, the United States of America defends the freedom to offend in speech.

The term event markets sucks -and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.

Posted on June 12, 2008 by admin

Google: &#8220-event markets&#8221- &#8212- Funny enough, the first link is to the Futures Industry Association, which promoted the term&#8230- and the second to CFM, which advises not to use that term (see the bottom of the CFM frontpage).

–

Just because 2 or 3 bureaucrats at the CFTC have decided to use that term does not mean that that term makes sense. It does not. &#8220-Event derivative markets&#8221- or &#8220-prediction markets&#8221- are better terms. It&#8217-s with great displeasure that I saw our own Mike Giberson (supposedly, a libertarian, and supposedly, a wannabe academic) followed the step of the CFTC like an obedient little poodle.

–

Just because somebody in power says something stupid that makes no sense at all does not mean that you should swallow it and direct it straight to your stomach.

Use your brain to perform critical reasoning.

–

Deep Throat on the idle Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA)

Posted on June 12, 2008 by admin

I agree that the Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA) (in its present form) is highly suspicious.

The purpose of the PMIA was to provide resume and marketing fodder for Jed, Emile and John. It&#8217-s like being president of a high school club: You don&#8217-t have to accomplish anything, but you can list your &#8220-officer&#8221- status on college applications.

As we saw, Emile has already started using it in his NewsFutures marketing. So, the project has actually been a great success for its true purposes!

Its our responsibility to call bullshit on this, and we failed. The PMIA is a fake organization, and nobody deserves any extra street-cred for &#8220-leading&#8221- or &#8220-founding&#8221- it.

–

The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.

Posted on June 12, 2008 by admin

Mercury

Old MO post on that.

–

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

Psstt… Spot that comment, on Google News, about… “bellwethers”… from a political scientist.
INSIDER’s STORY: The insightful strategic business report about The Evil Empire that Henry Berg does not want you to see
Prediction markets are about lowering transaction costs. That’s how sports come in.
The birth certificate of the next president of the United States of America –maybe
The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.
Unlike other countries, the United States of America defends the freedom to offend in speech.

Science

Posted on June 11, 2008 by admin

Midas Oracle.ORG – Predictions & Innovation

Prediction Markets, Collective Intelligence, Innovation and Growth

InTrades sudden and puzzled interest in… alchemy…!!!

Psstt… Spot that comment, on Google News, about… bellwethers… from a political scientist.

INSIDERs STORY: The insightful strategic business report about The Evil Empire that Henry Berg does not want you to see

Unlike other countries, the United States of America defends the freedom to offend in speech.

CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.

The term event markets sucks -and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.

Deep Throat on the idle Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA)

The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.

Science