Ex-HSX Max Keisers public campaign to destabilize the Cantor Exchange

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Financial Times:

After Enron, Hollywood bets on its own script for future profits

Published: December 20 2008 02:00 | Last updated: December 20 2008 02:00

From Mr Max Keiser.


The potential for mischief with Cantor’s new box office futures contracts is enormous (“All eyes on Hollywood futures”, December 13). When I was running the Hollywood Stock Exchange during the 1990s I was constantly approached by the Hollywood studios asking me to move up the prices of their MovieStocks to influence the perception of their films in the weeks just before a movie was released at the box office.

I believe that when these box office futures contracts become available these same studios will redirect millions of dollars they spend on marketing to buy and sell futures contracts in order to drive the price, and therefore perception, of their own and competing studios’ films, higher or lower.

Perception is the currency in Hollywood, and pricing perception, while putting the price discovery mechanism for perception into the hands of the same hedge fund and futures trading industry that has, by and large, been responsible for the mess the global financial system now finds itself in, portends a new kind of disaster film none of us wants to see.

How long before taxpayers in the US will be asked to bail out the Hollywood studios after they have bankrupted themselves making risky futures bets trying to influence the perception of their own and other studios’ films? Does the US really need a new way to destabilise its economy with more dodgy derivatives? I think I have seen this movie before. It was called Enron.

Max Keiser,
Paris, France
Former CEO and Co-Founder, HSX Holdings/Hollywood Stock Exchange

Financial Times: All eyes on Hollywood futures

Previously: Cantor Exchange

Previously: Should the Hollywood Stock Exchange become a real-money betting exchange? – 2007-10-04

At the contrary, mister Kirtland.

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Contra Alex Kirtland, I believe that the development of play-money prediction exchanges using MSR (like HubDub or AskMarkets), which popularity is now proved, is much more important news than stuff about CFTC-regulated, real-money prediction exchanges (like HedgeStreet or the Cantor Exchange), which popularity is uncertain.

Inkling Markets, HubDub and AskMarkets have been techcrunched &#8212-that has not been the case for HedgeStreet or the Cantor Exchange. Practically, that means a great injection of PageRank, hundreds if not thousands of bookmarks, and plenty of new users. That&#8217-s not what I call being &#8220-overshadowed&#8221-.

The one thing I enjoy every Monday morning

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As a prediction market aficionado, what lights me up are stories about&#8230- (of course)&#8230- how the prediction markets are assessing important news. The HubDub blog publishes, every Monday morning, a post that rounds up the 5 most prominent (that&#8217-s subjective) news stories of the week, with the prediction market charts, so we can spot which outcome is the more likely, for each issue.

I find this weekly newsletter addictive. I read it with attention each Monday. It is simple, short, but well done and effective.

I wish InTrade, BetFair, and NewsFutures would publish such a prediction market blog.

TradeSports & InTrade – The saga continues…

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See comment #2 that says that the InTrade PMs on InTrade are &#8220-absurd&#8221-.

Scroll down there to spot Todd&#8217-s comment.

Previously: Why did John Delaney shut down TradeSports?

Previously: The InTrade predicton markets on the viability of InTrade won&#8217-t reveal *ANYTHING* about the future of InTrade.

Previously: on TradeSports death – on InTrade&#8217-s viability

Why did John Delaney shut down TradeSports?

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He has offered 2 different explanations.

EXPLANATION #1: Let&#8217-s blame the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006.

We underestimated the difficulties that current and new customers would experience in funding accounts and partly as a result of this we have reluctantly decided to close TradeSports. While we are not hopeful that funding issues may dissipate soon, should they TradeSports will be back and it is therefore an imperative for us to effect and orderly and goodwill preserving closure for you all.

EXPLANATION #2: In spite of the InTrade-TradeSports splitting (sold to the gullible people since January 1st, 2007), TradeSports is the gambling stigma attached to InTrade. It is good business to get rid of that gambling stigma.

The closure of TradeSports is a good for Intrade as for too long the legacy association of Intrade to TradeSports has been a negative for Intrade for reasons that have been referred to above.

Chris F. Masse

InTrade CEO John Delaneys 2 risky bets

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– Their upcoming “business development initiatives” will magically generate new, sustainable revenues.

– The CFTC will soon allow InTrade to export its Irish services, legally, to the Americans.

Each of those bets is risky &#8212-and InTrade need to succeed on both fronts. It will be very difficult.

Best of luck to them &#8212-luck is what they will be needed.

My open challenge to AskMarkets co-founder George Tziralis

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Dear George,

Congrats for the launch of AskMarkets. Best wishes to your prediction exchange and consulting firm.

Here&#8217-s the perfect opportunity to ask you the &#8220-question that kills&#8221-:

What was the social utility of the political election prediction markets during the 2008 campaign?

In other words, why should the media have informed people about the InTrade probabilities at a time Nate Silver did a near-perfect job forecasting the 2008 US elections?

What&#8217-s the added value of the political election prediction markets over the poll aggregators?

Can you cite one prediction market (other than the &#8220-who&#8217-s gonna become president?&#8221- prediction market) that has a high social utility?

Each time I ask this question to one of the prediction market luminaries (or so they think they are), I get back the same glance I would get from a dead trout &#8212-so I would appreciate if you could attempt to answer my question by publishing a blog post on Midas Oracle.

Best regards,

Chris Masse, bombastic blogger


The fact that Emile Servan-Schreiber (usually, a smart man) treats the 2008 US presidential elections, as seen thru the lens of the NewsFutures prediction markets, so lightly, making it a race of spermatozoids swimming their way to the Oval Room, shows you that the prediction market luminaries are i

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