Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008

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How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following?

In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM.

Do traders really think there&#8217-s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat nominee?

The Value of Tom Brady?

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New England Patriots&#8217- quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending injury during yesterday&#8217-s game with the Kansas City Chiefs. After he left the game and before the extent of the injury was known, the TradeSport&#8217-s contract on whether the Pats would win the Super Bowl fell about 5 points (from 21 to 16). Then at about 6:30pm ET Yahoo Sports posted a story that he was done for the year and the price collapsed. It has now stabilized at about 8, so the injury experiment suggests that a healthy Brady was worth about 13 points in this market.[*] I hope his agent is paying attention.

[*] Possibly understates Brady&#8217-s value since there were already concerns about his health prior to the injury.

link: Tradesports NE Pats market

New Yahoo! News election dashboard

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Cross-posted on Oddhead Blog.

The Yahoo! News Political Dashboard has re-launched for the general election stretch run of the 2008 US Presidential election.

Yahoo! News political dashboard for the 2008 US general Presidential election

From the main map you can see the status of the election in every state according to either polls or Intrade prediction market odds. Hover your mouse over a state to see current numbers or click on a state to see historical trends. On the side, you can see search trends, blogs, news, and demographic breakdowns at national and state levels.

You can also &#8220-create your own scenario&#8221- by picking who will win in every state. You can save and share your prediction and compare against markets, polls, history, or celebrities. More on ycorpblog.

Readers will be happy to see more thorough and prominent integration of prediction market prices compared to the primary election dashboard. Is that good enough to quiet Chris&#8217-s whining?

In the PM view, states are colored either bright red or bright blue, regardless of how close the race is in that state. To see a visualization that blends colors to reflect the tightness of the race, see electoralmarkets.com.

Yahoo! News also offers a candidate badge that you can display on your blog declaring your choice. The badge features national-level polls, prediction markets, search buzz, and money raised.

Quit mulling over the VP-choice prediction markets, todays real story is in the election winner markets.

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I would suggest that the VP selections and the performance of the VP-choice markets at InTrade and elsewhere lend some validity to Chris Masse&#8217-s views on such markets. But enough about the VP markets, already. The interesting developments are in the election-winner markets.

Price for 2008 Republican VP Nominee (others upon request)(expired at convention) at intrade.com

Since just after 2 PM Irish time, when the NEW.REP.VP.PALIN contract briefly fell into the 20s (rumors had it that Palin wasn&#8217-t on a plane to Dayton- subsequently established that the rumor was not true), the contract turned sharply up to about 98 and stayed there until the selection was made official.

During that same time period, the &#8220-Obama wins&#8221- contract has slipped down a few percentages and the &#8220-McCain wins&#8221- contract is up a few percentages. Since at most VP selections are typically expected to affect final vote totals by 2 or 3 percent, the fact that the Obama and McCain contracts (which are winner-take-all, not vote-share contracts) have moved by 2 or 3 percent themselves suggests the markets think Palin is a fairly strong choice.

(But as I write this, the Obama contract is rallying back. Live blogging the prediction markets is hazardous stuff.)

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

Price for 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) at intrade.com

UPDATE: As of Tuesday morning, both presidential markets have slid back to their pre-Palin-announcement levels, but active trading suggests continued disagreement about the information trickling into the market. Also interesting, activity has continued on the NEW-REP-VP-PALIN contract, with the price dipping below 95 (but back to 97 as I write).  Since that contract expires at the convention – i.e. in a day or two – some folks are betting Palin will be off the ticket fast.

It seems like someone at CNBC decided at some point that they would NEVER address the legality issue.

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Signed: Deep Throat.

APPENDIX: CNBC video + CNBC video #2

UPDATE: YouTube video (the last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed)

UPDATE: The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube

Predict Olympic medal counts on YooPick.

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Cross posted from Oddhead Blog.

We&#8217-ve just added a new feature to Yoopick especially for Frenchmen Chris and Emile and citizens of nineteen other countries to place their swagor* on how many medals their country will win.

We&#8217-ve argued that the Yoopick interface is useful for predicting almost any kind of number, and since medal count is indeed a number, we thought we&#8217-d give it a try.

Besides, Lance told us it would be a good idea.

Sign up, play, enjoy, and don’t forget to tell us what you think!

Thanks,
Sharad Goel
David Pennock
Dan Reeves

* Scientific wild-ass guess, on record

Select

Yoopick: Olympic medal count: Select

Make pick

Yoopick: Olympic medal count: France: Make pick

The Alderney Gambling Control Commission: you follow the rules but you still dont get paid. Why bother with regulation at all?

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Online gambling regulation by accountable governmental bodies is a good thing for one reason and one reason alone: it offers protection to the player. There are many reasons why it&#8217-s good for the industry in terms of profit and image, but all that is irrelevant if the player side is missing from the equation, as without the player there is no industry.

I outlined serious flaws in the Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority in my LGA article a few weeks ago. In recent days a regulator much closer to home has come into the spotlight. (The following appears in moreorless the same format in the Alderney Gambling Control Commission article on my own site.)

The Alderney Gambling Control Commission oversees remote gambling within the states of Alderney in the Channel Islands. In the blurb on the homepage we find the following:

The Commission ensures that its regulatory and supervisory approach meets the very highest of international standards.

Excellent.

So, does this have any practical relevance to the player?

As reported at Casinomeister, in early July 2008 a player deposited at one &#8220-PKR Casino&#8221-, receiving a signup bonus in the process. The next day he was tempted to re-deposit with another bonus invitation, after which he cashed out his balance.

Three days later, the casino revoked his bonuses on the basis of &#8220-bonus abuse&#8221-:

After a thorough review of your account it is evident that you have abused the PKRCasino Reload bonus. You have now been permanently banned from PKR and all funds gained by abusing the reload bonus have been seized.

Since the player had infringed no terms, he appealed to the Alderney Gambling Control Commission. A week or so later the Commission released the following quite breathtakingly atrocious findings:

You made two large deposits, $200 and $500. The first deposit of $200 is the maximum eligible amount for a first time deposit bonus. The second deposit is again the maximum eligible amount for reload bonus.

As soon as the bonuses were cleared you requested a withdrawal, each time within five minutes of clearing the specific bonus.

You did not engage in any play between the first withdrawal and the second deposit when the reload bonus became available.

The only game you played was casino hold em.

The vast majority of the bets you made were the minimum $1. This is quite a small bet amount when compared to the amounts that you deposited. Only the basic main bet was played, never the side bet (AA bet).

The total amount you bet on the account was $20,002.00, this reflects the $10,000 bet to claim the first deposit bonus and then a second $10,000 to claim the reload bonus. It is clear that as soon as the bonus was released no more games were played.

Play only occured while a bonus was pending.

The Commission has thoroughly investigated your claims and are found to be in agreement with PKR Limited’s decision to exclude you from their site. On obtaining details of your game play it’s apparent that you have abused the bonus scheme that was offered to you.

In accordance with sections 9 and 10 of PKR Limited’s terms and conditions, of which you agreed to adhere to at all times, they are more than within their rights to close your account and seize all funds

Here is section 10 of the above-mentioned terms and conditions:

PKRCasino reserves the right to withhold any bonus payment if it believes that the promotion has been abused and/or where the terms of the offer are not fulfilled, or any irregular wagering patterns are found.

So, according to the Alderney Commission:

The player played no disallowed games.

The player made no disallowed wagers, or disallowed wager sizes.

The player did not wager less than the stipulated amount.

In short: the player broke absolutely none of the rules of the contract.

PKR does not define &#8220-abuse&#8221-, nor &#8220-irregular wagering patterns&#8221– PKR does not, in fact, state that it must be unequivocally sure about this apparent abuse, only that it must believe that the undefined indiscretion has occured. And if PKR Casino believes that something which they cannot define may have happened, they reserve the right to confiscate players&#8217- money.

This must count as just about the most vague, inadequate and frankly risible condition you could find in a contract. Why not just say &#8220-we&#8217-ll keep your money if we don&#8217-t like your name&#8221-? Or &#8220-&#8230-if there&#8217-s a &#8216-y&#8217- in the month&#8221-? Or &#8220-&#8230-on Tuesdays&#8221-?

Would such absurdities be any more ludicrous than guesswork about a non-defined activity?

And yet, the Alderney Gambling Control Commission endorses this condition.

This is a precedent-setting move, as it sends a message out to players that casinos under Alderney jurisdiction may confiscate their legitimately-earned funds with absolute impunity, safe in the knowledge that the AGGC will do nothing to stop them.

As such, I would like to ask the AGCC the following questions:

1) Since a straight observance of all the stated rules is not acceptable to you, precisely what would a player need to do to earn his full cashout at one of your licensee casinos WITHOUT incurring your displeasure? Which additional rules would you have a player observe?

2) You appear unhappy with the playing of just the one game- how many, and which, additional and unstated games would one need to play to earn a full cashout, and why do you not require that the casino list them?

3) You appear unhappy with issues of betsize- what betsize is acceptable to you, and why do you not require that the casino list it?

4) You appear unhappy with strict observance of the required wagering- how much additional wagering do you consider acceptable and why do you not require that the casino state this?

5) You appear unhappy with the timescale of withdrawals (&#8221-within five minutes&#8230-&#8221-)- how soon after requirements are met is acceptable to you for withdrawing, and why do you not require that the casino state this?

6) You appear unhappy with the lack of play occuring outside of bonus requirements- how much additional play is acceptable to you, and why do you not require that the casino state this?

Lastly,

7) Why in the name of heaven can a player abide by all the given rules and not be paid in full?

I hope that at some point the AGCC will address these points, as it seems clear that a player who simply follows the stated rules is guilty in their eyes of an indeterminate indiscretion.

There is nothing new about incentivising bonuses – they occur even in the UK banking sector. Take a look at the Alliance And Leicester esaving account:

Earn 6.50% AER (variable), this rate includes a 0.88% bonus payable until 31 August 2009

The bank uses a bonus to boost the customer&#8217-s interest, giving them a nice, catchy headline rate. They may lose money on the bonus, but the idea is that the new customers they&#8217-ll gain will more than compensate for the loss. If the customer shamelessly empties his account when the bonus period expires and goes elsewhere, the bank does not confiscate the bonus funds. If they did, it would put them in quite monumental breach of UK law. And at the end of the day, why would they? – they should still make money overall.

The exact same marketing concepts govern bonuses offered by online gambling operations: &#8220-give &#8216-em money and you&#8217-ll make money&#8221-.

So if a profit-motivated customer of a UK bank cannot have his funds unfairly confiscated, why can similarly focussed customers of an operation under the jurisdiction of the Alderney Gambling Control Commission be subject to such outrageous treatment?

Well, here&#8217-s where it get&#8217-s interesting.

The answer is that there is nothing in Alderney law which prevents it.

In the UK and across many, if not all, other EU countries, trading standards legislation does not recognise the legality of anti-customer clauses in contracts – take a look at the Unfair Terms in Consumer Contracts Regulations 1999:

If there is doubt about the meaning of a written term, the interpretation which is most favourable to the consumer shall prevail&#8230-An unfair term in a contract concluded with a consumer by a seller or supplier shall not be binding on the consumer&#8230-The contract shall continue to bind the parties if it is capable of continuing in existence without the unfair term.

One example of an unfair term is given as:

&#8220-&#8230-giving the seller or supplier&#8230-the exclusive right to interpret any term of the contract

You can see how this legislation would make it difficult for a business to hold customers to clauses like &#8220-we reserves the right to withhold any bonus payment if it believes that the promotion has been abused&#8221-.

Unfortunately, there is no trading standards legislation in Alderney, and as such nothing that protects the consumer from unfair practice – take a look at the &#8220-fair trading&#8221- section of the States Of Guernsey trading standards page of the Guernsey government website:

In March 2000 the States of Guernsey approved the introduction of legislation relating to the sale and supply of goods and services, unfair contract terms, misrepresentation and the disposal of uncollected goods. This legislation is at the stage of preparation and subsequent introduction

I spoke to the Guernsey trading standards office yesterday, and they confirmed that this is still the case – this legislation, though in the pipeline, is still not in place in 2008, fully eight years later!

I also spoke to the State Office of Alderney, and they confirmed that the same applies: there is no trading standards legislation in Alderney.

So where does this leave the player, on the receiving end of an outrageous decision issued by the Alderney Gambling Control Commission?

During my afternoon of phone conversations with the various Channel Islands public bodies, the Alderney Greffier pointed out that there is an appeal process listed in the 2006 eGambling Ordinance (see page 21, &#8220-appeals&#8221-). However, she acknowledged that this is a potentially rocky path:

Acceptance of the appeal request is down to the court itself.

Alderney solicitors charge upwards of ?400 an hour, making the pursuit of anything other than very large sums completely self-defeating.

Exactly what would happen as a result of a successful appeal is by no means guaranteed in terms of customer satisfaction.

Lastly, in the case of an appeal against unfair contract terms, when there is no actual law prohibiting such terms in the first place, it requires quite a stretch of the imagination to think that the court might find for the customer on that basis!

As such, appealing against a decision from the Alderney Gambling Control Commission is most likely an exercise in extreme pointlessness.

None of this should even be remotely necessary- an ostensibly respectable and competent governmental body should not be taking decisions based on what a customer might have done in relation to undefined, and frankly undefinable, terms – this is grossly unprofessional and grossly unfair. Vague talk about &#8220-bonus abuse&#8221- is the stuff of the lowest level of online casinos- it&#8217-s unthinkable that a governmental regulatory body would talk in the same manner. A serious regulator needs to take fair and balanced decisions: did the customer break any clearly defined rules? If so, he should not be paid. If not, he should receive his money- if he does not receive his money having broken no rules, then action against the operator should be forthcoming, up to and including the revocation of the operator&#8217-s license.

Not so in the case of the Alderney Gambling Control Commission. What did they say? It bears repeating:

it&#8217-s apparent that you have abused the bonus

What is the lesson that players can take away from all this?

Well, take your chances by all means- a lot of the Alderney-based casinos are decent operations so you&#8217-ll probably be alright. But remember that if you are NOT alright, if you accept a promotional bonus, on the casino&#8217-s specific invitation as part of their marketing campaign to snag your deposit, and you cash out only to then find you&#8217-re the subject of ill-defined accusations of unacceptable behaviour you apparently may have indulged in, then you can expect no quarter given from the Alderney Gambling Control Commission on the basis of their performance in this case.

This was, I think, a test case for the AGCC, the first one of its kind that&#8217-s been in the public domain.

What a shame they fell at the first fence and set standards in online gambling back about ten years.

What is the point of &#8220-regulation&#8221-, if the reality is this?

Independent Institutes weak blog post on prediction markets

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I was happy to notice that the Independent Institute, the pro-market think tank that published Entrepreneurial Economics in 2002, featuring a Robin Hanson chapter on decision markets (and much else good), published a blog post titled Forget Polls: Look at Prediction Markets on the Election. Unfortunately, while the post mentions prediction markets, they are only used as a jumping off point for an oft-repeated and boring argument that voters ought consider candidates outside the dominant parties.

Sadly, I think the think tank question I posed at the end of 2006 is still no: When has a pro-market think tank ever subjected its policy recommendations to market evaluation?

So, I&#8217-ll extend the donation offer made in that post through the end of 2009.

Previous blog posts by Mike Linksvayer:

  • Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts
  • Bob Barr markets
  • Bob Barr candidacy fails market test.
  • Small comforts of prediction markets
  • The Economist is taking suggestions.
  • Long-term housing derivatives?
  • Economists to Watch

Free Speech in Event Market Claims

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In addition to a joint comment with a score of signers, I also responded to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)&#8217-s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts by firing off a solo comment. I there focused soley on question 14, in which the CFTC asked, &#8220-Should certain underlying events or measures&#8211-such as those based on assassinations or terrorist activities—be prohibited altogether due to the social perception and impact of such events? What statutory or other legal basis would support this treatment?&#8221-

Much of my comment tracked the answer I posted here earlier. Long story short: such claims would not materially promote wrongful acts, so the CFTC has no legal basis to ban them. To that argument, however, I added a First Amendment analysis- to wit:

Could you fault claims about assassinations or other terrorist events for giving incentives for wrongful acts? Not very plausibly- as I explain above, it is very unlikely that anyone would find it profitable or prudent to try to use an event market to cash in on wrongdoing. Furthermore, all sorts of investment instruments offer the same incentives. Thus, for instance, a would-be terrorist might go long on oil futures prior to pulling off an attack on a refinery. Indeed, that sort of scenario seems much, much more likely than one involving event markets.

At root, concern about unseemly event market claims boils down to concern about violating a taboo about what sorts of things people discuss openly in a polite society. Those norms merit our concern, granted. They do not, however, justify imposing a speech restriction on event markets. And make no mistake about it- to bar such claims would constitute a restriction on speech.

Specifically, if the CFTC banned certain sorts of event market claims relating to assassinations, terrorist activities, or criminal acts, it would thereby impose a content-based restriction on speech. That would, under present First Amendment jurisprudence, trigger the highest level of judicial review: strict scrutiny. The ban would almost certainly fail to survive that scrutiny, as it would be too broad (stopping not just the bad guys but also the good ones), too narrow (since it would fail to forbid the use of other financial instruments, such as generic futures, from like uses), and not narrowly tailored (since there are other, better ways to discourage bad acts). Those sorts of claims would, moreover, fall within the core of the sort of speech protected by the First Amendment, as they would concern political events.

Our freedoms of speech and expression include the right to ask troubling questions. The CFTC has no good reason to ban event market claims about assassinations or other illegal acts. Nor can it do so constitutionally.

Suppose that my argument leads the CFTC to doubt that it can ban event markets from hosting claims about assassinations or terrorist activities. Suppose further, as seems likely, that the CFTC has some discretion in deciding whether its jurisdiction encompasses event markets- suppose, that is, that extant law does not command one answer to that question. What result?

I predict that the CFTC would tend to deny that it has jurisdiction over event markets because it would not want to take the blame for encouraging distasteful claims. Indeed, I not only predict that result, I intend it. I don&#8217-t trust the CFTC to do a very good job regulating event markets, so I want it to know why it does not even want to try.

[Crossposted at Agoraphilia and Midas Oracle.]

HubDub question

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I did bet $20 on the &#8220-yes&#8221- side of the CFTC prediction market. But now, I want to sell those this &#8220-yes&#8221- contract and buy a &#8220-no&#8221- contract instead.

How can I do that on HubDub? Thanks.

UPDATE: Jed Christiansen gives me the explainer in the comment, below. Thanks. It worked fine. I am now negative on this prediction.