admin, Author at Midas Oracle.ORG - Predictions & Innovation

Overcoming Whatever:

I don&#8217-t really think the comparison with sports/business/weather forecasters really holds up, for a prosaic reason &#8212- in particle physics, the timescale for experiments is years and decades, not days. There is no way to efficiently grade/reward people on the accuracy of their predictions, and correspondingly no real incentive for anyone to make very quantitative predictions.

On the other hand, it&#8217-s not as if there is no incentive to be right. If you devote your life to working out the ramifications of low-energy supersymmetry and it&#8217-s not there, you won&#8217-t get fired (if you have tenure), but on the other hand your life&#8217-s work will be useless. Which is a pretty big incentive.

Posted by: Sean Carroll [from Cosmic Variance] | August 11, 2008 at 12:25 PM

&#8212-

Sean, I don&#8217-t understand the relevance of the timescale to the efficient grading of predictions. Given enough forecasts we can see a signal of accuracy above the noise of luck in individual forecasts. I agree that the longer the timescale the weaker are incentives from any given reward tied to scoring. But I&#8217-m not really focused on incentives in this post – I&#8217-m focused on whether it is reasonable for folks to crow about being vindicated when they weren&#8217-t willing to make scoreable forecasts.

Posted by: Robin Hanson | August 11, 2008 at 12:35 PM

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Scientists don&#8217-t want to make scoreable forecasts.

Hence, it is impossible to collect track records.

Period.

Robin Hanson&#8217-s idea has no application &#8212-over than vanity blogging.

Let&#8217-s go back to our prediction markets (where traders work, for free, as info collectors).

Let&#8217-s not waste our precious time on fruitless ideas.

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You know what I thought when I first saw that picture (little Fogarty planted next to Master Of Credit Alan Greenspan)?… I thought, well, its about time that the prediction market industry does the product endorsement by celebrity marketing thing. BetFair premiered that with John McCririck.

CHIC TOILET: Bo Cowgill, like all the Google employees in California, has the option to wash his delicate rear area, wash his precious front area, dry, perform something called wand cleaning, and so much more.

I met with Alan Greenspan. He reads Midas Oracle on a daily basis. I have the photo to prove it. Take a look.

What Dean LeBaron should do to have a more usable website. + Who is Dean LeBaron and why does Midas Oracle get to publish about him?

What prediction market software improvement did Alan Greenspan suggest to Xprees Mat Fogarty?

Look at the inconsistency between the two faces. Mat Fogarty is jubilant like if he had just stolen a big client from Inkling. Alan Greenspan, on the other hand, has a constipated look that conveys that he is fed up with all those conference co-speakers asking him out for a photo op.

Enough already with coming soon. I am fed up with promises. I want this prediction market TV journalism project to be executed this year, in 2008.

When Robin Hanson realizes that ALL the prediction market luminaries BUT HIM have joined the LinkedIn group on Prediction Markets, he will rush to ask for an invite.

Since 2002, when research was formally separated from investment banking, the quality of research on Wall Street has deteriorated, and many top analysts have left the business.

FAMOUS SCIENTIST TO ROBIN HIGH IQ HANSON: Science, which is a very long-term endeavor, does not need your stickin idea about scoreable predictions and track records. Please, go back to minding economic issues in your Ivory Tower, and let us run science our way, on our timing. Thanks. Appreciated.