NASA says there is no truth to doomsday taking place in 2012.
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Yearly Archives: 2009
Our platform offers a true double-auction trading engine, not a scoring-rule disguised as a market.
That is from our good friend Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures, who is participating in the discussion on the LinkedIn group on prediction markets.
Go read his comment.
Also look at the 2 other threads.
How Bing could kill Google by partnering with news organizations such as the New York Times
According to Jason Calcanis…- [click here for the debunking of this idea].
Cloud Computing in Plain English
Jason Ruspini is against the Tobin Tax.
Stock market winnings are taxed. It’-s called capital gains, and the rate for short term trading of stocks is the normal income rate for individuals.
Of course, this tax will be felt for ordinary investors that hold mutual funds. If the average mutual fund has 100% annual turnover, a 1% tax becomes 2% in additional fees per year, or almost 50% over 20 years. You are arguing for making retirement more difficult.
Most fundamentally though, high frequency trading did not cause the crisis. If anything there was too little, not too much, pricing of mortgage securities. Think about it: even if high frequency trading increases daily volatility, that is not the kind of volatility people care about. People care about booms and busts in asset prices. They care about volatility at the monthly and annual level, which short term trading naturally has less to do with. Higher frequency traders buy AND sell.
Do not confuse flash trading with high frequency trading. Do not confuse problems related “-short-termism”- incentive effects with short term trading. Do not confuse volatility over short time frames with longer term volatility that actually affects peoples’- lives.
A transaction tax might reduce volatility over short time frames, but it will probably increase the serial correlation of markets —- their momentum —- which may increase volatility at longer, more relevant, time frames. If trading is more expensive, booms and busts will be more prolonged.
Inkling Marketss Adam Siegel needs salad leaves to relieve tension.
If you listened to that “-lecture”- at Kellogg, send me an anonymous e-mail to cfm &-&-AT&-&- midasoracle **+DOT+** (-com-), and tell me how it went and whether Adam has convinced you of the usefulness of enterprise prediction markets.
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Google CEO Eric Schmidt on why technology is a driving force in the economic recovery.
Economist Brad DeLong has received a DMCA takedown notice from HarperCollins, publisher of Steve Levitt and Steve Dubners SuperFreakonomics.
The prediction market industry ditches John Maloney -finally.
It was about time, and it is good news.
From: Emile Servan-Schreiber, NewsFutures
To: all friends of prediction markets:
A number of us have been talking recently and we are in agreement that the existing forums for prediction market enthusiasts and watchers, owned and controlled by single individuals, are lacking. We think the industry deserves its own independent, open, community-owned discussion forum. As such, we have created a new Google Group dedicated to fostering and furthering high-quality open debate and communication about prediction markets: the R&-D, the theory, the practice, the industry developments and upcoming events.
We strive for an open discussion and we commit to run the group with transparency, openness, objectivity, and independence. But we also believe some ground rules are needed to maintain a high quality of conversation that minimizes advertising, second-hand PR, or anyone monopolizing the conversation. We think some vigilance along those lines will make a positive difference in the communication and discussion. We hope you do too!
To join our new discussion group, click here:
http://groups.google.com/group/prediction-markets-open-discussion
Sincerely,
Oliver Bernhard Pedersen
Jed Christiansen
Bo Cowgill
Forrest Nelson
David Pennock
Emile Servan-Schreiber
Adam Siegel
Justin Wolfers
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Do you have a PageRank of 6/10 or higher?
If yes, then you can become a member of this exclusive club:
– The “-PageRank 6+”- group on LinkedIn.
The purpose of this selective club is to develop profitable networking opportunities among the Internet elites —-and that, of course, includes moi.