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James K. Galbraith
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James K. Galbraith on Max Keisers The Oracle
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Yearly Archives: 2009
Connect With Fans (CwF) + Reason To Buy (RtB)
= The Business Model ($$$$)
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Download this post, if you don’-t see the embedded video in your feed reader.
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Open-Source, Free-Of-Charge, Constitutionally Open Prediction Exchange
Mike Linksvayer again.
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Barney Frank is going to try again to free Internet betting and gambling in the U.S.
Via Smarkets, the FT.
The FT.
PS: Contra Jason Ruspini, I have always said that the CFTC route is the wrong route. The U.S. should establish a kind of “-Gambling and Betting Commission”-, like in the U.K., in my view (and Caveat Bettor’-s view).
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Cato Handbook for Policymakers
Cato Handbook for Policymakers
Washington Post:
A soup-to-nuts agenda to reduce spending, kill programs, terminate whole agencies and dramatically restrict the power of the federal government.
Excellent.
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Barney Kilgore and Nigel Eccles: Same vision, same combat
The general manager of ProPublica:
Today’s newspaper should be about tomorrow’s events, not yesterday’s. This was probably [Barney] Kilgore’s greatest insight, and it was one he first stated as a columnist in the Journal at the age of 23. Readers, Kilgore realized, turn to newspapers not because they are all fascinated by contemporary history, and want to puzzle out what another publisher later called journalism’s “first rough draft” of it. No, they want to know about what happened yesterday so that they can more intelligently cope with today, and tomorrow. More than 75 years after young Barney Kilgore set this rule out in his column, many publishers still haven’t fully absorbed it. Readers instinctively have. This has become even more important in a world where the Internet conveys new facts in real time, while the meaning of those facts often seems lost in a jumble of instant opinions.
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Nigel Eccles is the CEO of HubDub (”-Predict The News“-).
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The hype is over. The party is over. – Part IV
Caveat Bettor does not feature one single post on prediction markets on his blog frontpage.
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95 million TV viewers for the Super Bowl 2009
WSJ:
Only the Super Bowl, presidential debates, the Oscars and a few other broadcasts attract the tens of millions of viewers that major advertisers, including movie studios and big consumer-product makers like PepsiCo Inc., long to reach.
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UPDATE: There has been a recount.
98.7 million
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What is a prediction market? – Definitions & Explainers
Listing of explainers on prediction markets:
- Yahoo! Answers
- “-prediction markets”- — “-prediction market”-
- Google Answers — This service has been decommissioned.
- “-prediction markets”- — “-prediction market”-
- WikiBooks — WikiBooks – (English) — Search for “-prediction markets”-
- WikiNews — WikiNews – (English) — Search for “-prediction markets”-
- Wikipedia — Wikipedia – (English) — Prediction Markets — Betting Exchanges — Derivatives — The Wisdom Of Crowds — Collective Intelligence — Forecasting
- Handbook on Collective Intelligence – by MIT CCI
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- Midas Oracle
- Explainer on prediction markets – at Midas Oracle .ORG
- List of explainers on prediction markets – at Midas Oracle .ORG
- “-Explainers”- post category – at Midas Oracle .ORG
- Prediction Market Science – at Midas Oracle .ORG
- Prediction Markets Timeline – at Midas Oracle .ORG
- Robin Hanson
- Idea Futures (not updated) — Futarchy — The Policy Analysis Market (and FutureMAP) Archive – by Robin Hanson
- Prediction Markets Definitions – by Robin Hanson – 2006-11-21
- The Robin Hanson explainer on prediction markets – (PPT file) – by Robin Hanson – 2007-09-05
- The concept of Info Value – by Robin Hanson – 2008-01-14
- David Pennock
- Implementing Hanson’s Market Maker – by David Pennock – 2006-10-30
- Evaluating Probabilistic Predictions – by David Pennock – 2006-12-26
- Does Wisdom Require Markets? – by David Pennock – 2007-01-19
- How and When to Listen to the Crowd – by David Pennock – 2007-02-09
- Computational aspects of prediction markets – by David Pennock – 2007-02-09
- The right way to implement a multi-outcome prediction market: Linear programming – by David Pennock – 2008-02-19
- What is (and what good is) a combinatorial prediction market? – by David Pennock – 2008-12-22
- Panos Ipeirotis
- Defining Probability in Prediction Markets – by Panos Ipeirotis – 2008-01-13
- Prediction Market Efficiency vs. Prediction Market Accuracy – by Panos Ipeirotis – 2008-01-14
- Chris Hibbert
- PM Intro: Basic Formats – [simple double auctions] – by Chris Hibbert – 2005-12-30
- PMs with Open-Ended Prices – [markets with open-ended prices] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-01-05
- Looking at Both Sides – [the symmetry of complementary purchases] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-04-17
- Market Design: Book and Market Maker – [how to integrate an order book with an automated market maker] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-04-28
- Increasing Liquidity in Multi-Outcome Claims – [the mechanics of multi-outcome markets] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-07-19
- Continuous Outcomes: Bands, Ladders, and Scaled Claims – [predicting the value of a continuous variable] – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-09-20
- Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers – (mirror on MO) – by Chris Hibbert – 2006-09-20
- Conditional and Combinatorial Betting – (mirror on MO) – by Chris Hibbert – 2007-03-06
- Market Makers for Multi-Outcome Markets – (mirror on MO) – by Chris Hibbert – 2007-09-10
- New York Times
- The History of Prediction Markets – by the New York Times – 2007-11-04
- BBC News
- How does a betting exchange work? How does BetFair work? – by BBC News – 2007-12-07
- Forrester
- Prediction Markets: Wisdom Of The Crowd Comes To The Enterprise. – by Forrester – 2007-07-14
- James Surowiecki
- The Wisdom Of Crowds – by James Surowiecki – 2005-xx-xx
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Are you aware of any/some explainer(s) out there not listed above? If yes, please e-mail me. Thanks. Appreciated. Will make up to you.
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Super Bowl XLIII – 2009
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Cross-posted from Midas Oracle .COM
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