Tag Archives: Virginia

Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise.

Written by Chris F. Masse on October 29, 2008 — 2 Comments

Here are short excerpts of the Forrester report on enterprise prediction markets and companies that provide software for enterprise prediction markets.
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The Forrester executive summary:
The “wisdom of crowds” is capturing the attention of corporate strategists across the globe, and, as a result, many are now looking to prediction markets — speculative markets in which traders collectively [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers | Also tagged A. Huberman, - Bernardo Huberman, Adam, Adam Siegel, Alberta, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd Ankenbrand, Boston Consulting Group, Calgary, California, Canada, Center for Energy Commerce, CEO, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chris Hibbert, Client Resource Center, Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction markets, David Perry, David Shahar, Director, EDS, Elad Amir, Emile Servan-Schreiber, ENERGY ECONOMIST, energy policy, enterprise prediction markets, Exago, Forrester, France, George Mason University, George Tziralis, Germany, Google, Greece, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HP Services & HP Labs, IBM, Illinois, Information Dynamics Lab, IntelliMarket Systems, internal prediction markets, Israel, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kay-Yut Chen, Ken Kittlitz, KPMG, L.A., Littal Shemer Haim, Maryland, Maurice Balick, Michael Giberson, Microsoft, Nashville, Nathan Kontny, Noam Danon, Oliver Bernhard Pedersen, Paris, Pedro Da Cunha, Pennsylvania, Peter Gollowitsch, Portugal, prediction market consultants, Prediction Market Software, prediction markets, private prediction markets, R. Plott, - Charles Plott, Rawls College of Business, Robin Hanson, Software architect / , Zocalo, project manager, software for prediction markets, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech University, United States, University of Kansas, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton Business School, Virtual Specialist, VP Business development, VP R&D, wisdom of crowds, Yahoo!

Spikes

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 29, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Florida, InTrade, manipulations, manipulations attempts, prediction markets, US presidential elections

The best researchers on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 4, 2008 — Leave a Comment

CFM: Scholars
Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)
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Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke [...]

Posted in People, Resources - References | Also tagged Adam, Adam Meirowitz, Administration, American Enterprise Institute, Anderson School, Andrew Leigh, Anita Elberse, Anthony M. Kwasnica, Arizona, Australia, Australian National University, Austria, Becker Center, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd H. Ankenbrand, Bernd Skiera, Bilkent University, British Columbia, Business, C. Schelling, - Thomas Schelling, California, California Institute of Technology, Canada, Centre Nationale, Change, Chapman University, Charles A. Holt, Charles F. Manski, Charles Holt, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chief Economist, Chris Hibbert, Collective Intelligence, College of Arts and Sciences, College of Business, College of Business Administration, College of Management, Connecticut, corporate prediction markets, D. Hamilton, - James Hamilton, D.C., Daniel Reeves, Dartmouth College, David M. Pennock, David Paton, David Porter, dean, Denmark, Department of Computer Science, Department of Economics, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Department of Politics, Director, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, e-commerce, E. Litan, - Robert Litan, Economic Science Institute, Economics Department, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Crampton, Eric W. Zitzewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Executive Director, F. Manski, - Charles Manski, Florida, Forrest Nelson, France, Friedrich August Von Hayek, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Gary William Flake, George Mason University, George R. Neumann, George Washington University, Gerhard Ortner, Germany, Goethe University, Google, Graduate School, H. Ankenbrand, - Bernd Ankenbrand, Hal R. Varian, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, HP Labs, IIT Center for Financial Markets, Illinois, Illinois Institute of Technology, information aggregation tool, Information Dynamics Lab, Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, internal prediction markets, Iowa, J. Arrow, - Kenneth Arrow, James Annan, James D. Hamilton, James Surowiecki, Japan, John O. Ledyard, Joyce Berg, Joyce E. Berg, Justin J. Wolfers, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation, Kay-Yut Chen, Keith Gamble, Keith Jacks Gamble, Kellogg, Kenneth J. Arrow, Kentucky, L. Savage, - Sam Savage, Lance Fortnow, Lance J. Fortnow, law school, Lecturer, LEEPS, LEEPS laboratory, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Leslie R. Fine, London Business School, Los Angeles, M. Kwasnica, - Anthony Kwasnica, M. Todd Henderson, manager, Marco Ottaviani, Martin Spann, Maryland, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, McCormick School of Engineering, Michael Abramowicz, Michael B. Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, Michael P. Wellman, Michael Wellman, Michigan, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Microsoft, Missouri, MIT, MIT Center, New Jersey, New York, New York City, New Zealand, Nicolas Lambert, North Carolina, Northwestern University, Norwestern University, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham University, Paris, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Milgrom, Paul W. Rhode, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, Peter Norman Sorensen, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, prediction markets, Princeton University, Principal Research Scientist, private prediction markets, Professor, professors, R. Varian, - Hal Varian, Rahul Sami, Recherche Scientifique, Reg-Markets Center, Research School of Social Sciences, researchers, Richard Borghesi, Richard Roll, Robert E. Litan, Robert Forsythe, Robert J. Shiller, Robert W. Hahn, Robin D. Hanson, Robin Hanson, Russ Ray, Ryan Oprea, Sam L. Savage, San Diego, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, Sauder School of Business, Saul Levmore, scholars, School of Business, School of Information, School of Management, School of Public Affair, Sciences, Social Computing Lab, software architect, Stanford University, Steve Levitt, Steven D. Levitt, Steven Levitt, Stuart School of Business, technology, Texas, Texas State University, Thomas A. Rietz, Thomas C. Schelling, Thomas Gruca, Thomas S Gruca, Thomas W. Malone, Thomas W. Ross, Todd A. Proebsting, Todd Proebsting, Tom Malone, Tom W. Bell, Tracy Mullen, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, University of Applied Sciences, University of Arizona, University of British Columbia, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Canterbury, University of Chicago, University of Copenhagen, University of Iowa, University of Kansas, University of Louisville, University of Maryland, University of Michigan, University of North Carolina, University of Passau, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Florida, University of Texas at Austin, University of Virginia, Vancouver, Vernon L. Smith, Vice President for Research and Policy, W. Flake - Gary Flake, W. Rhode, - Paul Rhode, W. Ross, - Thomas Ross, Washington, Werner Antweiler, Wharton Business School, Witten, Witten/Herdecke University, Yahoo! Research Labs, Yale University, Zocalo Project Manager

Short list of the economics labs researching on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 30, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Labs
(with thanks to Chris Hibbert of Zocalo)
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Iowa Electronic Markets – (IEM) – (Henry B. Tippie College of Business, University of Iowa, Iowa, U.S.A.)
Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science – (ICES) – (George Mason University, Virginia, U.S.A.)
Economic Science Institute – (ESI) – (Chapman University, California, U.S.A.)
HP Labs – (Hewlett-Packard, Palo Alto, California, U.S.A.)
Laboratory for Experimental Economics and [...]

Posted in Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Resources - References | Also tagged California, Cambridge, Center for Prediction Markets, Chapman University, Chris Hibbert, Collective Intelligence, Cologne, Economic Science Institute, Economics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, George Mason University, Germany, Google, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, Hewlett-Packard, HP Labs, Interdisciplinary Center for Economic Science, Iowa, Knowledge Lab, laboratories, Laboratory for Economics Management and Auctions, Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political Science, labs, Massachusetts, Microsoft, MIT Center, Mountain View, National Chengchi University, Palo Alto, Pasadena, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, prediction markets, Redmont, Research, Taiwan, United States, University of Iowa, University of Virginia, Vecon Lab, Washington, Yahoo!, Yahoo! Research Labs

Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 29, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Consultants
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Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.)

Adam Siegel — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Nathan Kontny

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NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.)

Emile Servan-Schreiber — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Maurice Balick

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Xpree – (U.S.A.)

Mat Fogarty — Post Archives at Midas Oracle

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HP Services – HP Labs – (U.S.A.)

Predicting the future –with games — Introductory article
Information Dynamics [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Consulting | Also tagged A. Huberman, - Bernardo Huberman, Adam, Adam Siegel, Alberta, American Enterprise Institute, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd Ankenbrand, BPH Technologies, Calgary, California, Canada, CEO, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chris Hibbert, consultancy firms, consultants, Consulting, consulting firms, corporate prediction markets, D.C., David Perry, David Shahar, Director, Durham, economic tools, Elad Amir, Emile Servan-Schreiber, energy, ENERGY ECONOMIST, energy policy, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, France, George Mason, George Tziralis, Germany, Google, Greece, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HP Labs, Illinois, Information Dynamics Lab, IntelliMarket Systems, internal prediction markets, Israel, Jed Christiansen, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kay-Yut Chen, Ken Kittlitz, L.A., Littal Shemer Haim, London, Maryland, Maurice Balick, Michael Giberson, Mikael Edholm, Nashville, Nathan Kontny, Noam Danon, North Carolina, Oliver Bernhard Pedersen, Paris, Pennsylvania, Peter Gollowitsch, prediction market consultants, prediction markets, private prediction markets, R. Plott, - Charles Plott, Raleigh, Robert Hahn, Robert Wilburn, Robin Hanson, Software architect / , Zocalo, project manager, Tennessee, United Kingdom, United States, VP Business development, VP R&D, Washington

Unlike polls, prediction markets give incentives to think carefully.

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 14, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Via Wall Street investor and blogger Barry Ritholtz, the Wall Street Journal:
[...] Since the election season began, investors on Intrade have risked $4.6 million in trades on Sen. Clinton and $3.4 million on Sen. Obama. [...] Robin Hanson, an economics professor at Virginia’s George Mason University, says the predictions markets work much as other markets [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged Clinton, economics professor, George Mason University, InTrade, Obama, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Senator, USD, Wall Street Journal

Finally, someone tells the libertarian truth on the US ban against Internet betting and gambling.

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 19, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Reason Magazine blog (who else?):
It’s too bad Europe, Japan, and Canada caved. Here’s hoping little Antigua stays plucky.
A few observations:
First, and most obviously, the U.S. government is so hellbent on policing the online habits of its citizens, it’s willing to pay what will likely be tens of billions of dollars of money in trade reparations—taken [...]

Posted in Politics, Regulations | Also tagged Antigua, Bob Goodlatte, Canada, consensual online wagering, Europe, European Commission, Gretchen Hamel, Internet betting, Japan, Mitch McConnell, online gaming, online habits, online poker, online wagering, Reuters, U.S. Trade Office, United States, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, US government, World Trade Organization

Yes, Virginia, BetFair does organize socially valuable prediction markets in UK politics.

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 5, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Mike Smithson’s effort is paying off. Here are the BetFair political prediction markets:
Cabinet Exit Dates

Chancellor
Foreign Secretary
Home Secretary

Cabinet Specials

Next Chancellor
Next Foreign Secretary
Next Home Secretary
Next Prime Minister

Leader Exit Dates

David Cameron
Gordon Brown

Next General Election

Election Date
Most Seats
Overall Majority
Party Leaders

Next Lib Dem Leader
The prediction exchanges (betting exchanges) that organize the most socially valuable prediction markets are InTrade and PopSci PPX, [...]

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged Chancellor, David Cameron, Exit Dates, Foreign Secretary, Gordon Brown, Home Secretary, leader, Lib Dem, Mike Smithson, Prime Minister, United Kingdom

Yes Virginia, Wikipedia is a warzone of vested interests.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 14, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Wiki Scanner: Search the Wikipedia edits to spot the organizations that edited it.
It would be interesting to investigate who edited the Wikipedia pages on prediction markets and betting exchanges. (At the time of writing, Wiki Scanner was out of service.)
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UPDATE: BetFair, TradeSports-InTrade and the Hollywood Stock Exchange do control what you read on Wikipedia.
- BetFair [...]

Posted in Resources - References | Also tagged Cantor, Daniel Reeves, David Pennock, George Mason University, Google, Henry Berg, Hollywood Stock Exchange, Iowa, Microsoft, owner, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, University of Iowa, Yahoo!

Were the InTrade prediction markets on the November 2006’s Senate elections accurate?

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 2, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Revisiting the issue, almost one year later.
Lance Fortnow (University of Chicago) wrote:
So how did those predictions go? In short you can say the markets predicted every individual race correctly but got the senate wrong, but let us look a little more carefully.
At about 9 AM CST on the morning of election day I made a [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged GOP senate, Lance Fortnow, Missouri, Republican Party, Senate, University of Chicago

Tag Archives: Virginia

Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise.

Spikes

Short list of the economics labs researching on prediction markets

Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets

Unlike polls, prediction markets give incentives to think carefully.

Finally, someone tells the libertarian truth on the US ban against Internet betting and gambling.

Yes, Virginia, BetFair does organize socially valuable prediction markets in UK politics.

Yes Virginia, Wikipedia is a warzone of vested interests.

Were the InTrade prediction markets on the November 2006’s Senate elections accurate?

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