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- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
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Tag Archives: utility
Are prediction markets useful?
According to Alan Abramowitz, John Tierney has been “greatly exaggerating the accuracy of the betting markets.” “They follow the polls. That’s it.” – - My comment to Alan Abramowitz and John Tierney: “They follow the polls. That’s it.” Yes, they … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism
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Tagged 2008 Democratic primary, 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, HubDub, InTrade, NewsFutures, prediction markets, social utility, US politics, usefulness, utility
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3 Comments
Don’t pump up the features of the prediction markets —instead, put the emphasis on their benefits.
John Tierney and Jed Christiansen are making the same mistake: they think that people and experts should be impressed by the information aggregation functionality of the prediction markets. They are not —people still prefer reading Nate Silver and Electoral-Vote.com over … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Tagged accuracy, benefits, features, prediction markets, usefulness, utility
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6 Comments
Chris Masse (in his holy greatness) asks the question that so terrifies Jed Christiansen.
- Terrified. -
Posted in Analysis (Meta), Humor, Midas Oracle Administration
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Tagged Humor, prediction markets, social utility, utility
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6 Comments
The 2 links you should follow, first thing, this Monday morning
- A portrait of Nate Silver in the New York Times. – Jed Christiansen’s post-mortem on the 2008 US presidential elections. I’ll have many remarks to add to his analysis.
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities
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Tagged 2008 US presidential election, accuracy, fivethirtyeight.com, Jed Christiansen, Nate Silver, polls, prediction markets, state polls, utility
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4 Comments
It wasn’t about the predictions.
Let’s not confuse media visibility with utility. Aside from the depressed Obama-to-win prices on one exchange, prediction market and polling aggregation results for the 2008 election were essentially the same using squared errors. Despite his insane schematics, Emile Servan-Schreiber has … Continue reading →
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology
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Tagged accuracy, Daily Kos, Emile Servan-Schreiber, fivethirtyeight.com, Nate Silver, polls, prediction markets, social utility, state polls, utility
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10 Comments
My open challenge to AskMarkets co-founder George Tziralis
Dear George, Congrats for the launch of AskMarkets. Best wishes to your prediction exchange and consulting firm. Here’s the perfect opportunity to ask you the “question that kills”: What was the social utility of the political election prediction markets during … Continue reading →
Political prediction markets should “move beyond mere horse-race forecasts to demonstrate larger social value”.
I agree with that. The key, now, is to go beyond the accuracy issue and to move on to the utility issue. It’s a much complex problematic, which those who have been over-selling the prediction markets are unwilling to undertake. … Continue reading →
InTrade CEO John Delaney states that prediction markets can prevent the next financial cataclysms. Surely. Prediction markets can also restore women’s virginity, and treat men’s baldness.
John Delaney states rightfully that the prediction markets are a mechanism that aggregates information dispersed among the population. Then, he goes on at full throttle and states that prediction markets can help “avoiding future [financial] crisis.” Jesus, Mary, Joseph, that’s … Continue reading →