Sports Risk Index would allow you to hedge risks on sport prediction markets.

The patent.

The latest developments. (audio)

I am skeptical, since the US Congress has just outlawed movie prediction markets, but I wish good luck to Chris Rabelais et al. Maybe the political scene will be different next year, who knows.

UPDATE: As you&#8217-ve understood, I was talking about CFTC-approved real-money prediction markets, here.

Why does the CFTC allow the Cantor Exchange and not InTrade?

Joe Weisenthal has a small opinion piece on why the CFTC allows real-money prediction markets on movie business, and bans those on politics or sports. The problem in the piece is that Joe is 100% wrong.

  1. Joe says that there can&#8217-t be hedging in politics. Wrong. You can hedge your political ads on InTrade.
  2. Joe says that there can&#8217-t be hedging in sports. Wrong. Businesses that operate inside a stadium could hedge the risk of the home team losing (which means less business for them).

So. why does the CFTC shy away from hedging on sports and politics? &#8211-&gt- Politics. The CFTC is afraid of the US Congress, who would object to politics and sports &#8220-gambling&#8221-.

The CFTC is a weak institution, in the DC sphere of power. In the recent past, the CFTC lost one important battle against other parts of the US government &#8212-even though it was the CFTC that was on the right side of the issue at the time. With politics and sports betting, the CFTC does not want to lose another battle. It is a question of survival.

Ayn Rands influence on Alan Greenspan is responsible for the 2008 financial crisis.

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Or so is PBS&#8217-s thesis in &#8220-The Warming&#8221-.

Pretty convincing.



Brooksley E. Born is an American attorney and former public official who, from August 26, 1996 to June 1, 1999, was chairperson of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal agency which oversees the futures and commodity options markets. During her tenure on the CFTC, Brooksley Born warned Congress and the President of the need to regulate financial instruments known as over the counter (OTC) derivatives, but her warnings were disregarded. Lack of regulation ultimately led to the crash of the derivatives market, and helped trigger the economic and financial crisis in the fall of 2008.