Tag Archives: Trader

How BetFair stole Bastille Day from the French —and how Ed Murray became BetFair’s best friend (NOT A HOAX).

Posted on July 15, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Michael Giberson (professor of economics and chairman of our scientific advisory board): Actually, I would expect the change to improve liquidity, but the real surprise for Ed Murray is that other than his liquidity argument, I pretty much agree … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Mechanism Designs | Tagged Bastille Day, bet matching, bet matching logic, bet-matching engine, bet-matching process, bet-matching system, BetFair, chairman, market designs, Market Liquidity, matching bets, matching trades, Mechanism Designs, Michael Giberson, prediction markets, professor of economics, professor of economics and chairman, Trader, trading engine | 29 Comments

What Robin Hanson told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Posted on July 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:12:46 -0400 To: secretary@cftc.gov From: Robin Hanson <rhanson@gmu.edu> Subject: Comment on “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts” —————————————————————- I am an event market innovator, having published the first detailed … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Economics, Inventions & Innovations, Regulations | Tagged 703-993-2323, 703-993-2326, associate professor, BusinessWeek, Carow Hall, CFTC, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, F.T.C., future, George Mason University, Humanity Institute, Humanity Institute at Oxford University, individual trader, insurance markets, laws, Oxford University, prediction markets, professor of economics, public web markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Research Associate, Robin Hanson, Secretary, Tom W. Bell, Trader, USD | 5 Comments

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Posted on July 5, 2008 by Jason Ruspini

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it. Given … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics, Regulations | Tagged arbitrator, Brookings Institution Press, candidate, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre, Congress, Democratic president, Department of the Treasury, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, Eriz Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, General, insurance contracts, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, oil prices, particular product, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, President, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, S&P 500, Securities and Exchange Commission, South Carolina, the candidate, Trader, United States, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USD, Washington D.C. | Leave a comment

Let’s Tell the CFTC Where to Go.

Posted on July 3, 2008 by Tom W. Bell

Update: I’ve extended the deadline for signing up until 7 p.m. Pacific, Sunday, July 6. Also, I fixed a typo in paragraph 3, changing “denying” to “giving.” (Thanks, Gil!)> The deadline looms for interested parties to respond to the Commodity … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged CFTC, Commodities Futures Trading Commission, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, Iowa, laws, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Regulations, The University of Iowa, Trader, USD | 13 Comments

Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.

Posted on June 25, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – V. Issues for Comment A. Request for Comment The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately … Continue reading →

Posted in Regulations | Tagged American Enterprise Institute, bet markets, betting markets, binary options, CFTC, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, commodity options, commodity options contracts, definitions, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, Jason Ruspini, Porter, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Tom W. Bell, Trader, United States Of America, Vernon Smith | 5 Comments

Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets has computed that blogging is important to a small business.

Posted on June 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Inkling Markets: Here are the jobs we’re currently looking to fill: Director of Business Development Take the reigns to plan and direct Inkling’s ongoing business development efforts. This includes everything from identifying and evaluating new market opportunities, working on public … Continue reading →

Posted in Jobs - Careers - Hiring | Tagged Adam, Adam Siegel, business development executive, careers, Director of Business Development, Inkling, inkling markets, jobs, marketplace administrator, prediction markets, public relations initiatives, Trader | Leave a comment

The lawyerly questions that the CFTC are asking to Tom W. Bell

Posted on June 18, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Regulations | Tagged bet markets, betting markets, binary options, CFTC, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, commodity options, commodity options contracts, definitions, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Tom W. Bell, Trader | 8 Comments

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

Posted on June 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

CFTC – (PDF file): CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts – SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Regulations | Tagged 202.418.5521, 202.418.5578, AEI-Brookings Joint Center, American Enterprise Institute, bet markets, betting markets, binary options, Bruce Fekrat, by-products, Capper, catastrophe single event insurance option contracts, CFTC, Chicago Board Of Trade, commodity futures, commodity futures contracts, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, commodity options, commodity options contracts, Congress, cottonseed oil, crude oil, D.C., David A. Stawick, definitions, Director, Division of Market Oversight, Eric W. Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures, event markets, Explainers, futures contracts, futures markets, governor, Hal R. Varian, House Committee on Agriculture, House-Senate Conference Committee, InTrade, Iraq, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, legalization, livestock products, Michael Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, natural gas, office, particular candidate for political office, particular presidential candidate, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Wolfowitz, peanut oil, Porter, prediction markets, predictive tools, producer, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, retail customers, retail market participants, retail users, Robert W. Hahn, Secretary, Senate, Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry, South Carolina, soybean oil, Special Counsel, specific candidate, specific farmer, the New York Times, The University of Iowa, Three Lafayette Centre, Tom W. Bell, Trader, United States, United States Of America, University of Iowa Departments of Accounting and Economics, University's College of Business Administration, USD, Valencia, Vernon Smith, Washington, West Coast, young economist | 24 Comments

Robin Hanson fanboy and InTrade trader Patri Freidman’s outing —as one of the “sexiest geeks alive”

Posted on June 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Via ValleyWag His latest venture — His “sexy geek” profile – - Patri Firedman’s website As you all know, Patri Friedman set up Google’s internal prediction exchange —with Bo Cowgill. -

Posted in People | Tagged Google, InTrade, InTrade trader, Patri Freidman, Patri Friedman, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, SeaSteading, Trader | Leave a comment

Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”.

Posted on June 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Via Adam Siegel… …of Inkling Markets fame…. – Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? – (draft: PDF file) – by Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien – 2008-05-02 Abstract Election markets have been praised for their … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, Adam, Adam Siegel, Bob Erikson, Christopher Wlezien, event deivative markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Iowa, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, Politics, polls, poor forecasting tool, prediction markets, relative accuracy, Robert S. Erikson, Robin Hanson, Trader | 3 Comments

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