Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Trader

How BetFair stole Bastille Day from the French —and how Ed Murray became BetFair’s best friend (NOT A HOAX).

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Michael Giberson (professor of economics and chairman of our scientific advisory board):
Actually, I would expect the change to improve liquidity, but the real surprise for Ed Murray is that other than his liquidity argument, I pretty much agree with him this time.
It is a better scheme than before, as the exchange will match traders’ bets [...]

What Robin Hanson told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Robin Hanson:
Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:12:46 -0400
To: secretary@cftc.gov
From: Robin Hanson <rhanson@gmu.edu>
Subject: Comment on “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts”
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I am an event market innovator, having published the first detailed discussions envisioning their widespread application, having designed a widely used trading mechanism (the market scoring rule), and having co-developed the first [...]

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it.
Given the political implications of the rise in commodity prices, this is not the best environment in [...]

Let’s Tell the CFTC Where to Go.

Update: I’ve extended the deadline for signing up until 7 p.m. Pacific, Sunday, July 6. Also, I fixed a typo in paragraph 3, changing “denying” to “giving.” (Thanks, Gil!)>
The deadline looms for interested parties to respond to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s request for comments about regulating prediction markets (“event markets” in [...]

Jason Ruspini will answer SOME of these CFTC questions. — 12 days left, Jason.

CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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V. Issues for Comment
A. Request for Comment
The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately underlie Commission-regulated transactions, and the appropriate regulatory treatment of event contracts. The Commission encourages comments on the specific questions posed, [...]

Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets has computed that blogging is important to a small business.

Inkling Markets:
Here are the jobs we’re currently looking to fill:
Director of Business Development
Take the reigns to plan and direct Inkling’s ongoing business development efforts. This includes everything from identifying and evaluating new market opportunities, working on public relations initiatives, forging strategic partnerships, initiating proposals, negotiating contracts with our enterprise clients, and helping to manage existing [...]

The lawyerly questions that the CFTC are asking to Tom W. Bell

CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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V. Issues for Comment
A. Request for Comment
The following questions consider the Commission’s regulatory purview over event contracts, the interests that may appropriately underlie Commission-regulated transactions, and the appropriate regulatory treatment of event contracts. The Commission encourages comments on the specific questions posed, [...]

CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts

CFTC – (PDF file):
CFTC’s Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
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SUMMARY:
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (Commission or CFTC) is soliciting comment on the appropriate regulatory treatment of financial agreements offered by markets commonly referred to as event, prediction, or information markets. \1\ For ease of reference and to avoid classification issues, these [...]

Robin Hanson fanboy and InTrade trader Patri Freidman’s outing —as one of the “sexiest geeks alive”

Via ValleyWag
His latest venture — His “sexy geek” profile
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Patri Firedman’s website
As you all know, Patri Friedman set up Google’s internal prediction exchange —with Bo Cowgill.
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Based on market data from a tiny prediction exchange (IEM, which is much smaller than InTrade-TradeSports or BetFair), a couple of researchers claim that prediction markets do not have superior predictive power. — And, adding salt to injury, they call our prediction market luminaries (Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers, etc.)… “naive”.

Via Adam Siegel…
…of Inkling Markets fame….
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Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? – (draft: PDF file) – by Robert S. Erikson and Christopher Wlezien – 2008-05-02
Abstract
Election markets have been praised for their ability to forecast election outcomes, and to forecast better than trial-heat polls. This paper challenges that optimistic assessment of election [...]

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