Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Tom Bell

This is a test. This is a test. This is a test. But an important test for prediction market journalism.

I need to publish an image (whatever) with a link embedded into it —and with a link text associated with that embedded link. I need to do that because I am testing a WordPress plugin that automatically adds hyperlinks to the texts we have posted on this blog.
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To explain you a little bit, please first [...]

Should Tom Bell’s next PC feature the RAID system?

Tom W. Bell’s new law blog: Intellectual Privilege
Monday, November 19, 2007
HD Crash
Ack! After a wonderfully productive week of writing, and before I’d backed up everything, my computer’s harddrive crashed. I’m now logging on from an old laptop. Fortunately, I’d been uploading PDFs to this site as I go. At worst, then, I’ll have to resort [...]

Are Prediction Markets Constitutional?

I think so*, although it could be a matter for states to decide, and not so much the federal government. In that scenario, my thought is that some liberal (in the classic sense) states will allow experimentation with prediction markets, and the informational value (at least over surveys and polls) will eventually sweep the nation. [...]

Betcha’s Continuing Legal Struggles

You can keep up with the news about Betcha, the Seattle-based betting platform suffering the continued attentions of the Washington State Gambling Commission through the Betcha blog.
Founder Nicolas Jenkins has the latest update: Now We Know Why That Search Warrant Came So Easy:
We just found out yesterday that — surprise! — the Commission wasn’t exactly [...]

Is the Honor Rating really the only chink in Betcha.com’s legal armor? If so, they have a better shot at surviving that I had imagined.

The ecstatic and puzzled David Pennock in a comment on Tom Bell’s Midas Oracle blog post… sorry, Tom W. Bell.
Question to Jason Ruspini: Should some US-based prediction exchange(s) adopt the Betcha legal trick?
UPDATE: Tom W. Bell…
David: I spoke of “the” chink in Becha.com’s legal armor–not “the only” one. Perhaps it suffers from many potential liabilities. [...]

Nick Jenkins’ Betcha is aiding and abetting the transactions of illegal betting.

Says Roy Girasa, a law professor at the Lubin School of Business at Pace University in New York City.
Via David Pennock, who is both fascinated and skeptical.
Click here to get all the previous Midas Oracle blog posts on Betcha, including Tom Bell’s one. Heu, sorry, I meant, Tom W. Bell.
Previous: Nick Jenkins welcomes [...]

The BetZip/Betcha plot thickens.

- Tom Bell has a comment:
[...] BetZip claims to have a patent on its business method. I’ve not looked into that claim, nor the patent itself, but it remains possible that BetZip would win an injunction on anyone [including a prediction exchange] trying to mimic its legal hack.
- Jason Ruspini has a comment:
That general idea [...]

Some prediction exchanges should follow the BetZip.com model.

Says the all-excited Mike Linksvayer –(I’ve never seen him that excited, apart from the perspective of a George W. Bush impeachment):
Great idea! A PM should do this, right now, taking care to create real money incentives and not encourage risky bets. I’ve thought of the possibility of a no-downside-risk PM that only shared advertising revenue [...]

BetZip.com – Win Big Without the Risk

At the BetZip Player’s Club, one low monthly fee of $19.99* is all you will ever spend to compete for thousands of dollars every day – up to $20,000 daily and over $100,000 every month – with no other costs, wagers, deposits or hidden fees of any kind!
[...] the only legal U.S. poker site that [...]

BETCHA.com: Where is law professor Tom Bell when we need him?

Here’s Tom Bell’s website.
ABOUT BETCHA: I wish Nick Jenkins the very best.
BetBug (which billed itself as the “Kazaa of betting”, and thus thought that it was above the law):
Dear BetBug User,
It is with deep regret that BetBug has voluntarily chosen to stop publishing its peer-to-peer software and will stop populating the software’s wagering menu with [...]

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