Tag Archives: Todd Proebsting

The best researchers on prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 4, 2008 — Leave a Comment

CFM: Scholars
Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.)
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Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington University, Washington, D.C., U.S.A.) — Post Archives at Midas Oracle
Bernd H. Ankenbrand – Bernd Ankenbrand – (Lecturer, Witten/Herdecke [...]

Posted in People, Resources - References | Also tagged Adam, Adam Meirowitz, Administration, American Enterprise Institute, Anderson School, Andrew Leigh, Anita Elberse, Anthony M. Kwasnica, Arizona, Australia, Australian National University, Austria, Becker Center, Bernardo A. Huberman, Bernd H. Ankenbrand, Bernd Skiera, Bilkent University, British Columbia, Business, C. Schelling, - Thomas Schelling, California, California Institute of Technology, Canada, Centre Nationale, Change, Chapman University, Charles A. Holt, Charles F. Manski, Charles Holt, Charles R. Plott, Chicago, Chief Economist, Chris Hibbert, Collective Intelligence, College of Arts and Sciences, College of Business, College of Business Administration, College of Management, Connecticut, corporate prediction markets, D. Hamilton, - James Hamilton, D.C., Daniel Reeves, Dartmouth College, David M. Pennock, David Paton, David Porter, dean, Denmark, Department of Computer Science, Department of Economics, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Insurance and Real Estate, Department of Politics, Director, Division of Humanity and Social Sciences, e-commerce, E. Litan, - Robert Litan, Economic Science Institute, Economics Department, Emile Servan-Schreiber, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Crampton, Eric W. Zitzewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Executive Director, F. Manski, - Charles Manski, Florida, Forrest Nelson, France, Friedrich August Von Hayek, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Gary William Flake, George Mason University, George R. Neumann, George Washington University, Gerhard Ortner, Germany, Goethe University, Google, Graduate School, H. Ankenbrand, - Bernd Ankenbrand, Hal R. Varian, Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Henry B. Tippie College of Business, HP Labs, IIT Center for Financial Markets, Illinois, Illinois Institute of Technology, information aggregation tool, Information Dynamics Lab, Information Services & Process Innovation Lab, internal prediction markets, Iowa, J. Arrow, - Kenneth Arrow, James Annan, James D. Hamilton, James Surowiecki, Japan, John O. Ledyard, Joyce Berg, Joyce E. Berg, Justin J. Wolfers, Justin Wolfers, Kansas, Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation, Kay-Yut Chen, Keith Gamble, Keith Jacks Gamble, Kellogg, Kenneth J. Arrow, Kentucky, L. Savage, - Sam Savage, Lance Fortnow, Lance J. Fortnow, law school, Lecturer, LEEPS, LEEPS laboratory, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Leslie R. Fine, London Business School, Los Angeles, M. Kwasnica, - Anthony Kwasnica, M. Todd Henderson, manager, Marco Ottaviani, Martin Spann, Maryland, Massachusetts, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, McCormick School of Engineering, Michael Abramowicz, Michael B. Abramowicz, Michael Gorham, Michael P. Wellman, Michael Wellman, Michigan, Micro-Economic and Social Systems, Microsoft, Missouri, MIT, MIT Center, New Jersey, New York, New York City, New Zealand, Nicolas Lambert, North Carolina, Northwestern University, Norwestern University, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham University, Paris, Paul C. Tetlock, Paul Milgrom, Paul W. Rhode, Penn State University, Pennsylvania, Peter Norman Sorensen, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, prediction markets, Princeton University, Principal Research Scientist, private prediction markets, Professor, professors, R. Varian, - Hal Varian, Rahul Sami, Recherche Scientifique, Reg-Markets Center, Research School of Social Sciences, researchers, Richard Borghesi, Richard Roll, Robert E. Litan, Robert Forsythe, Robert J. Shiller, Robert W. Hahn, Robin D. Hanson, Robin Hanson, Russ Ray, Ryan Oprea, Sam L. Savage, San Diego, San Marcos, Santa Cruz, Sauder School of Business, Saul Levmore, scholars, School of Business, School of Information, School of Management, School of Public Affair, Sciences, Social Computing Lab, software architect, Stanford University, Steve Levitt, Steven D. Levitt, Steven Levitt, Stuart School of Business, technology, Texas, Texas State University, Thomas A. Rietz, Thomas C. Schelling, Thomas Gruca, Thomas S Gruca, Thomas W. Malone, Thomas W. Ross, Todd A. Proebsting, Tom Malone, Tom W. Bell, Tracy Mullen, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States, University of Applied Sciences, University of Arizona, University of British Columbia, University of California at Los Angeles, University of Canterbury, University of Chicago, University of Copenhagen, University of Iowa, University of Kansas, University of Louisville, University of Maryland, University of Michigan, University of North Carolina, University of Passau, University of Pennsylvania, University of South Florida, University of Texas at Austin, University of Virginia, Vancouver, Vernon L. Smith, Vice President for Research and Policy, Virginia, W. Flake - Gary Flake, W. Rhode, - Paul Rhode, W. Ross, - Thomas Ross, Washington, Werner Antweiler, Wharton Business School, Witten, Witten/Herdecke University, Yahoo! Research Labs, Yale University, Zocalo Project Manager

Spectrum has a long article on prediction markets.

Written by Chris F. Masse on August 31, 2007 — 4 Comments

Bet on It! – (page two – page three + a crappy listing of exchanges) – by Steven Cherry
In August 2004, Todd Proebsting, a researcher in Microsoft’s platform and services division, was approached by a manager in the company’s testing organization who had spent months helping to create a piece of software to be used [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged cent, Chris F. Masse, consultant, Director, director of the group, France, Henry Berg, internal product, manager, manager in the company, Microsoft, researcher, software features, Sophia Antipolis, Steven Cherry, USD

Yahoo! Research + MicroSoft Research vs. Google Research

Written by Chris F. Masse on July 16, 2007 — 1 Comment

Yahoo! Research does investigate prediction markets —see David Pennock (the inventor of the DPMM) et al.
MicroSoft Research does investigate prediction markets —see Todd Proebsting (“I lead Microsoft Research’s Information Forecasting Exchange project“).
Google Research does not investigate prediction markets —see this interview. (The prediction markets effort at Google is part of the 20% project of a [...]

Posted in Economics, Inventions & Innovations | Also tagged David Pennock, Google, Microsoft, Yahoo!

Bo Cowgill, Todd Proebsting and David Pennock Compared

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 5, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Posted in Business, The Internet | Also tagged Bo Cowgill, David Pennock Compared

Robin Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule Seen Thru David Pennock’s Eyes That Focus On Todd Proebsting

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 7, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Trying to summarize David Pennock’s 2006 MSR piece in just three sentences:
Robin Hanson prefers talking about traders “changing the price” instead of traders “buying and selling shares”. MicroSoft Research’s Todd Proebsting is the man. He has implemented a great “buying and selling shares” MSR.
Previous: Conditional and Combinatorial Betting – by Chris Hibbert

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Software | Also tagged Chris Hibbert, David Pennock, Microsoft, prediction markets, Robin Hanson

Conditional and Combinatorial Betting

Written by Chris Hibbert on March 6, 2007 — Leave a Comment

After people have used Prediction Markets for a while and have gotten used to their ability to provide forecasts, they start thinking about different scenarios. Who would be the best Republican to face Clinton? How are the prospects for a market boom or crash effected by the winner of the election? How will poverty be affected by a proposed World Bank program? These kinds of questions can be posed in a number of ways using Prediction Markets. Markets can allow betting on conditional (if) or conjunctive (and) questions. Either one can be used to answer the what if questions, but they provide different choices to the bettors, and some make it easier for observers to decode the answers.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs, Software | Also tagged Clinton, cross-product, DAVE PENNOCK, Eric Zitzewitz, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Justin Wolfers, Osama bin Laden, Peter McCluskey, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Robin Hanson, USD

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decisionmaking — THE MARKET WEB

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 13, 2007 — 5 Comments

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decisionmaking – by Michael Abramowicz – 2007-xx-xx – (fall)
Chapter: The Market Web – (towards the end of the book)
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Michael Abramowicz:
If prediction markets should become commonplace, decisionmakers might link to them in their own analyses.
Will trading play-money and/or real-money event derivative contracts become commonplace? It’s likely, at the contrary, [...]

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Also tagged Bo Cowgill, computer software, David Pennock, Decisionmaking, Google, market web, Michael Abramowicz, Microsoft, observer, Private, real estate, software engineer, subsidized individual market web providers, WEB , Predictocracy, Yahoo!

Case: MicroSoft’s internal prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 23, 2007 — Leave a Comment

CNET on the Yahoo! Confab:
When Todd Proebsting, director of Microsoft’s Center for Software Excellence, tested a prediction market internally, managers quickly gave it their blessing.
The goal: to have 25 members of a development team predict when a Microsoft product would ship (this was an internal product, not one sold externally). The prediction market was set [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Cases, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged cent, Director, internal product, Microsoft, Trader, USD, Yahoo!

Tag Archives: Todd Proebsting

Spectrum has a long article on prediction markets.

Yahoo! Research + MicroSoft Research vs. Google Research

Bo Cowgill, Todd Proebsting and David Pennock Compared

Robin Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule Seen Thru David Pennock’s Eyes That Focus On Todd Proebsting

Conditional and Combinatorial Betting

Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decisionmaking — THE MARKET WEB

Case: MicroSoft’s internal prediction markets

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