Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: The Netherlands

How some US-based university professors endorsed a Holland-based consultancy firm

Here is the e-mail that was sent to the prediction market scholars listed on Midas Oracle.:

Dear Mr. [PROFESSOR'S NAME GOES HERE],
I am writing on behalf of [PREDICTION MARKET SOFTWARE VENDOR'S NAME], a Netherlands based consulting firm, because our research has identified you as a scholar with some expertise in Prediction Markets or a related field. [...]

BetFair is at war with the Dutch government.

BetFair versus Holland (The Netherlands).

How that prediction market consultant in Holland attracts economic advisers on the cheap

Dear Mr. [PROFESSOR'S NAME GOES HERE],
I am writing on behalf of [PREDICTION MARKET SOFTWARE VENDOR'S NAME], a Netherlands based consulting firm, because our research has identified you as a scholar with some expertise in Prediction Markets or a related field. [THEY JUST SCRAPPED MIDAS ORACLE'S LISTINGS.] We would like to assess your suitability and interest [...]

NewsFutures’ hyper marketese on their prediction market consultancy and software package for enterprise prediction markets

NewsFutures:
Top-10 reasons why NewsFutures is the ideal partner to harness the wisdom of your crowd
1.) Integrated Solutions
We offer complete solutions, not just great software. This approach delivers a much higher success rate and enables the client organization to fully consider Prediction Markets as a key decision-support tool.
From experience, we know that a successful prediction market [...]

The prediction markets reflect the polls and the national media.

Jason Ruspini:
In general, futures markets are “less futures markets than immediate-past markets”.
It is hard to evaluate the markets fairly given how difficult it is for someone in New Hampshire to participate in them. Naturally then, the [prediction] markets more easily come to reflect the polls and national media – which were wrong in this case. [...]

Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.

Why were the political prediction markets so wrong about Barak Obama and Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire?
…asks Slate’s Daniel Gross —via Mister Usability (Alex Kirtland), who needs to go and get his own gravatar.
So, I’ve been watching the action in one of the political futures markets this evening, Intrade. And the action in this prediction [...]

Justin Wolfers dreams of a prediction market land, where exchange odds are cited but not the polls.

Knowledge @ Wharton (on polls):
The Power of Prediction Markets
The rapidly changing landscape of responders and related technology factors are two reasons why Justin Wolfers, Wharton professor of business and public policy, believes in the power of prediction, or betting, markets. Wolfers — who is associated with several prediction market sites such as InTrade.com or Tradesports.com [...]

Is WeatherBill doing well, really??

WeatherBill does so well that TechCrunch has just published two –yes, two– blog posts on it, today (Wednesday, October 17, 2007). Here’s the first one, which basically says that two VCs have just poured $12,5 million dollars in it. Good for them. The second blog post, written by another TechCrunch writer, and which has been [...]

Dead or Almost Dead


Dead:

CME Economic Derivatives — Auction format
Economic Derivatives – (U.S.A.) — CME + ICAP + Longitude (previously with Goldman Sachs) — These financial instruments are traded through a Universal Dutch Auction format —an automated parimutuel technique. — OTC market (which limits participants to eligible contract participants) excluded from regulation by the CFTC.
U.S. Idea Futures Exchange – [...]

Chris Masse is bull-shitting. On the paper, NewsFutures is OBVIOUSLY the market leader.

That’s what all the people thought, after I published my ranking.
The NewsFutures clients:

The world’s largest steel maker.
CORNING
Display Technologies.

Japan’s largest advertising firm.

Hungary’s leading news weekly.

Voted “most innovative” pharmaceutical company in Fortune’s 2003 and 2004 rankings.

The US packaged foods giant.

Giant U.S. Pharmaceutical.

Leading provider of objective analysis and effective solutions.

One of the world’s leading providers of outsourcing and [...]

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