Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Robin Hanson

Robin Hanson’s blah blah on futarchy (using conditional prediction markets to govern a country) — [VIDEO]

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 11, 2010 — Leave a Comment

Robin Hanson debates a Mencius Moldbug on prediction markets, decision markets, and… futarchy:

Foresight 2010 debate: Futarchy from Monica Anderson on Vimeo.
Download this post to watch the video —if your feed reader does not show it to you.
Who cares about that Mencius Moldbug anyway?
Previously.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

ROBIN HANSON, WE DON’T GIVE THE FIRST FIG ABOUT YOUR DEBATE WITH THAT MENCIUS MOLDBUG.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 21, 2010 — 2 Comments

WE WANT YOU TO DEBATE PAUL HEWITT.
CAPITO?

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged ,

Can a conditional prediction market play chess?

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 18, 2010 — Leave a Comment

The Hanson–Moldbug debate

Posted in Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , ,

Debate is raging between Robin Hanson and the futarchy critics

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 8, 2010 — Leave a Comment

- Robin Hanson comments on Paul Hewitt’s blog.
- Paul Hewitt comments on Eric Crampton’s blog.
- Paul Hewitt comments on Robin Hanson’s blog. Many exchanges with Robin Hanson. Read it all.
- Paul Hewitt:
[...] My point is that the case for prediction markets has not been made, at all. There is a tiny bit of proof that [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Robin Hanson does not make the list.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 7, 2010 — Leave a Comment

No Hanson.
Study.

Posted in Economics, Journalism | Also tagged ,

Robin Hanson: Prediction markets are interesting as forums, not methods.

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 3, 2010 — Leave a Comment

“Prediction markets aren’t about emphasizing ordinary Joes over credentialed bigshots; they are about emphasizing whomever [] tends to be right.”

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , ,

If he had balls, Robin Hanson would debate Paul Hewitt, instead.

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 23, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Paul Hewitt: The Essential Prerequisite for Adopting Prediction Markets
It is a long text, so I will post again about it, in the near future. (Happy Xmas, by the way.)
ADDENDUM: Saturday, January 16, 2010: Debate between Robin Hanson and Mencius Moldbug

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , ,

Robin Hanson’s futarchy is “retarded”.

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 23, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Saturday, January 16, 2010
Debate between Robin Hanson and blogger Mencius Moldbug about futarchy, “a subject on which fur has flown over the blogosphere.”

Posted in Events & Meetings | Also tagged , , ,

Should a blog run ads?

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 3, 2009 — Leave a Comment

Robin Hanson’s web stats (the drop came following his ditching of his co-authors):

He has asked whether his readers would allow him to have ads. I left a comment, there.
Blog Herald:
3 Odd Reasons Why I Don’t Read Your Blog
- ADS. I find that the types of ads a blog runs is quite telling. The blogger that [...]

Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Midas Oracle Administration, Midas Oracle Statistics | Also tagged , , , , , , , ,

Feedback trading in prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on December 1, 2009 — 1 Comment

Robin Hanson is schooled about prediction market trading.
Our guest author to our Master Of All Universes:
Feedback trading just means the kind of momentum trading that is pervasive in traditional assets, again, less so in prediction markets. In the biastest experiment, traders were given formal “clues” about the settlement, but for many market participants, the best [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Trading | Also tagged , , , , , , ,
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