Tag Archives: Robin Hanson

Paul Hewitt on the usefulness of the prediction markets — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on August 2, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: I don’t think there is any question that the usefulness of prediction markets has been exaggerated. We don’t hear much from James Surowiecki anymore. So a few of those polled probably indicated that he doesn’t exaggerate the usefulness … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | Leave a comment

Have Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki been exaggerating the usefulness of the prediction markets? — [SURVEY RESULT]

Posted on July 28, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Here’s the result of the Kauffman Foundation poll: – UPDATE: Here’s an example (among many) of the grave problems with prediction markets, which are unreported by the media. – PDF document. – - – - – - – - – … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, The Global Economy | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | 1 Comment

Robin Hanson’s wife sent the ABC News reporters packing. Don’t mention ‘cryogenics’ to her. — [VIDEO]

Posted on July 27, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Contrary to her husband, she is not a publicity whore. ABC News video. ABC News article. NYT.

Posted in Research, Science | Tagged cryogenics, death, life, Research, Robin Hanson, Science | Leave a comment

After years of pretending being a prediction market consultant, Robin Hanson finally confesses nobody has ever cared about his stuff. — [LINK]

Posted on July 13, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

The Emperor of enterprise prediction markets is naked. Robin Hanson: I can confirm that this disinterest is real. For example, when I try to sell firms on internal prediction markets wherein employees forecast things like sales and project completion dates, … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, Collective Intelligence, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasting accuracy, predicting, predicting accuracy, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

That’s a tough one… How would you have answered? — [POLL]

Posted on July 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

UPDATE: The poll result.

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, usefulness | Leave a comment

Once again, Robin Hanson exaggerates the usefulness of the prediction markets. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on June 30, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade’s prediction markets on the recent Arab revolutions didn’t bring anything interesting in our understanding of the Middle East. Robin Hanson’s insistence is absurd.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Algeria, Arab countries, Arabs, Bahrain, bets, Betting, betting markets, bettors, Egypt, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasting, forecasts, InTrade, Libya, Politics, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Robin Hanson, traders, trading, Tunisia, world politcs, Yemen | Leave a comment

Robin Hanson’s friend (from the NASA era) wants to mine the Moon. — [VIDEO]

Posted on June 28, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Barney Pell‘s Moon Express would be mining the moon. Video streaming by Ustream

Posted in Business, Inventions & Innovations, Research, Science | Tagged Barney Pell, Earth, mining the Moon, Moon, Moon Express, Moon mining, Research, Robin Hanson, Science, technologies, technology | Leave a comment

InTrade on the elimination of Osama Bin Laden — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Mike Giberson: How do we know, now, that Intrade’s market price was not an accurate estimate of the probability bin Laden was killed or captured by September 2011? Is an prior estimate of 50 percent likelihood that a tossed coin … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Osama bin Laden, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, Robin Hanson, terrorism, terrorists | 1 Comment

Cold Fusion Prediction Markets — [HISTORY]

Posted on April 29, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

In April 1989, Robin Hanson created this prediction market: By 1/1/91 a <1 liter device will have generated over 1 watt of power output more than input from room-T fusion, including amortized power to create/separate components. I suppose that InTrade … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, cold fusion, event derivative markets, forecasting, forecasts, InTrade, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Robin Hanson’s couple vs. Justin Wolfers’ s couple — [CONTRAST]

Posted on April 27, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

- Robin Hanson and his wife maintains 2 separate bank accounts, and his wife is down to Earth. Marriage, despite its lack of clean edges and predictable outcomes, is one of the few institutions he seems to have no interest … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Money, People | Tagged budgets, careers, Economics, family, Justin Wolfers, marriage, Money, Peggy Jackson, Robin Hanson, spending | 2 Comments

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