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Chris F. Masse June 10th, 2008

Robert Scoble interviews their CTO.

Video

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Predictify is not a prediction exchange. We think prediction markets are superior to polls and surveys, don’t we?

With Predictify, the mechanism delivering the collective verdict is simplistic: it’s a poll —with possibility to get down to each individual answer.

Their conversation is very interesting, nevertheless —in great part due to Robert Scoble’s intense curiosity.

Technically, the video is awesome and plays well —even with my old computer and slow DSL line. Kudos to the Fast Company techies.

UPDATE: I don’t like that their video starts off automatically, though. With YouTube, we decide to play the video —it is not imposed on us.

UPDATE: Alas, their embedded video does not go into the blog feed.

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UPDATE: I e-mailed my remarks to Robert Scoble, and he’s asked to his techie to look into the issues.

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UPDATE: I see that the video does not start on its own, now. They managed to correct that. Rest the fact that their videos don’t go into feeds.

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Tags: Fast Company, Forecasting, forecasts, Mike Agnich, polls, Predictify, Predictions, predictors, prognostics, reputations, Robert Scoble, surveys, track records

• Forecasting
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Chris F. Masse June 9th, 2008

What’s the point of posting your Google Calendar on the Web if the only lines that are visible are:

- “busy… busy… busy… busy… busy… busy… busy… busy… busy… busy… busy… busy… busy… busy… busy…”

????

What’s the informational value of that for your blog readers?

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Tags: Google Calendar, Robert Scoble

• Information Technology
• Comments(0)

Chris F. Masse June 3rd, 2008

The awful French TV program on sports betting (where BetFair’s Mark Davies croaked in French) reminded me of what Robert Scoble said about TV news shows.

They do not intend to educate you..

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Robert Scoble:

Last week I was on CNBC twice. Once on “Fast Money” and once on Donny Deutsch’s “The Big Idea.”

The Fast Money segment has been torn apart on the Internet but Roger Ehrenberg of the Information Arbitrage blog had the most intelligent analysis of it.

Here’s the key piece of the Donny Deutsch show, where we had a bunch of bloggers on the Microsoft Blogger Bus asking questions of Bug Labs’ CEO Peter Semmelhack. Bug Labs went onto win CNET’s “Best of CES” award for the emerging tech category.

Some things that are worth underlying about the difference between my video show and CNBC.

1. Expense. CNBC had dozens of people involved in the show, a huge booth, really expensive cameras, satellite time, etc. My show? Get a Nokia phone and go for it.
2. Makeup. Yeah, I wore it. There’s a video out there on the Internet somewhere. I’m not sure why Valleywag hasn’t found it yet.
3. You don’t get to say whatever you want. Donny’s show was tape delayed. If you try doing something wacky, they’ll just cut you out. But even if they keep you on, they have a director who is telling you what they want. She preps you for each segment, giving you “talking points.” If you don’t agree with those talking points you have to negotiate to have them changed. But if they don’t like your talking points they just won’t go with you. Second, she has a big sign and if she thinks you should make a point she makes it clear.
4. These shows are NOT about getting deep, or really getting a good understanding of CES. They were ALL about being entertaining! Hey, who knew? (I tried to pull a bunch of gadgets out and they said “we don’t care about the gadgets.”)
5. They filmed Bug Labs’ CEO for 10 hours for a two-minute segment. Now do you understand why so many CEOs let me come over and film them? I never take more than an hour with an executive, so it’s always easy to get onto someone’s schedule.
6. My show has very little editing, so it’s pretty rare that the context gets lost on an answer. On TV, though, things get cut up, sliced and diced, all for entertainment effect, not necessarily to tell the best story.

Tags: CNBC, Entertainment, news, Robert Scoble, TV

• Journalism, Editing & Publishing
• Comments(4)

Chris F. Masse May 26th, 2008

Michael Giberson and Robin Hanson are fond of Inkling Markets’ Godfather, Paul Graham. I am not. I am more interested in Robert Scoble, Loic Le Meur, and Jason Calacanis. With other bloggers, they started a discussion on modern-days public relations.

Here are the good points they made, along with my associated thoughts:

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Loic Le Meur:

1. A very good product, by itself, will get you users and traction. TradeSports, BetFair, HubDub and NewsFutures attained success because early users like those services.
2. The CEO (e.g., Emile Servan-Schreiber, Adam Siegel, Nigel Eccles, and John Delaney) should be the spokesperson of the company. [As a counter-point, see the point #9, there.]
3. You should build your community without marketing and promoting in mind —more like entertaining and helping friends of yours, than pitching prospects.

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Jason Calacanis:

1. “Evolution is the révolution.” Everything is iteration. Look at the fantastic R&D that BetFair is building into its products.
2. Don’t be a smart ass. Be a smart entrepreneur. Start something (a company, a group blog, whatever). That way you will be able to “iterate”. (Remember point #1? ) The best decision that David Perry made in his life was to start off Consensus Point with Ken Kittlitz.

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Robert Scoble:

1. You should create visually rich experiences. Prediction exchanges (like InTrade and BetFair) should focus on developing dynamic, compound chart widgets with customizable news markers.
2. You need to reach the “influentials” (the blogging élites). Get to them.
3. Have luck. Luck is part of the success. Go reading Robert Scoble’s point #3 on Qik.com.

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Tags: Jason Calacanis, Loic Le Meur, Marketing, PR, Robert Scoble

• Entrepreneurship , Marketing
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Chris F. Masse April 11th, 2008

… a kind of Robert Scoble of prediction markets… Right-click on the picture, open the external link in another browser tab, and read it all.

Tags: Corporate Social Media Evangelists, Robert Scoble

• Journalism, Editing & Publishing , Marketing
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Chris F. Masse March 30th, 2008

Blogs: What are they good for?

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Robert Scoble’s blog

Mashable blog

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UPDATE: More about blogging from Tech Crunch.

Tags: blog, blogging, Blogs, economics of blogging, history of blogging, Mashable, Robert Scoble

• History , Information Technology , Journalism, Editing & Publishing , The Internet
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Chris F. Masse March 8th, 2008

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Explainer: Michael Arrington is Ducan Riley’s boss —and Michael Arrington’s post (which prompted the 2 comments you see above) happened to contradict Ducan Riley’s previous take on the issue. (See Robert Scoble’s take, for more info on the general issue, if you need. More by the same Scobble. See also Fred Wilson. And Ducan Riley. Mark Cuban. Mike Arrington.)

Tags: Duncan Riley, Jason Calacanis, life, Michael Arrington, Robert Scoble, startups, work

• Business , Entrepreneurship , Ethics
• Comments(2)

Chris F. Masse January 26th, 2008

IT blogger Robert Scoble (on the left), holding his Nokia, interviewing Michael Dell at Davos (WEF):

Michael Arrington of TechCrunch took the pic.

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Here’s a Davos video taken with a mobile video phone:

Tags: blog, blogger, journalism, journalist, Robert Scoble, video

• Journalism, Editing & Publishing
• Comments(0)

Chris F. Masse January 24th, 2008

… says George Soros.

The current financial crisis was precipitated by a bubble in the US housing market. In some ways it resembles other crises that have occurred since the end of the second world war at intervals ranging from four to 10 years. However, there is a profound difference: the current crisis marks the end of an era of credit expansion based on the dollar as the international reserve currency. The periodic crises were part of a larger boom-bust process. The current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years. [...] Globalisation allowed the US to suck up the savings of the rest of the world and consume more than it produced. [...] Credit expansion must now be followed by a period of contraction, because some of the new credit instruments and practices are unsound and unsustainable. [...] Although a recession in the developed world is now more or less inevitable, China, India and some of the oil-producing countries are in a very strong countertrend. So, the current financial crisis is less likely to cause a global recession than a radical realignment of the global economy, with a relative decline of the US and the rise of China and other countries in the developing world. [...]

InTrade on the likelihood of a US recession in 2008

Before you go for a suicide, be sure to read Zubin Jelveh’s counter point. (That may be why Caveat Bettor is shorting the US recession event derivative. )

And, to prepare yourself for the recession, read Robert Scoble’s common-sense advice.

Tags: financial crisis, George Soros, InTrade, recession, Robert Scoble, US economy

• Exchanges & Markets , Finance , Prices & Probabilities , Psychology , The Global Economy
• Comments(0)

Chris F. Masse January 13th, 2008

Robert Scoble:

Last week I was on CNBC twice. Once on “Fast Money” and once on Donny Deutsch’s “The Big Idea.”

The Fast Money segment has been torn apart on the Internet but Roger Ehrenberg of the Information Arbitrage blog had the most intelligent analysis of it.

Here’s the key piece of the Donny Deutsch show, where we had a bunch of bloggers on the Microsoft Blogger Bus asking questions of Bug Labs’ CEO Peter Semmelhack. Bug Labs went onto win CNET’s “Best of CES” award for the emerging tech category.

Some things that are worth underlying about the difference between my video show and CNBC.

1. Expense. CNBC had dozens of people involved in the show, a huge booth, really expensive cameras, satellite time, etc. My show? Get a Nokia phone and go for it.
2. Makeup. Yeah, I wore it. There’s a video out there on the Internet somewhere. I’m not sure why Valleywag hasn’t found it yet.
3. You don’t get to say whatever you want. Donny’s show was tape delayed. If you try doing something wacky, they’ll just cut you out. But even if they keep you on, they have a director who is telling you what they want. She preps you for each segment, giving you “talking points.” If you don’t agree with those talking points you have to negotiate to have them changed. But if they don’t like your talking points they just won’t go with you. Second, she has a big sign and if she thinks you should make a point she makes it clear.
4. These shows are NOT about getting deep, or really getting a good understanding of CES. They were ALL about being entertaining! Hey, who knew? (I tried to pull a bunch of gadgets out and they said “we don’t care about the gadgets.”)
5. They filmed Bug Labs’ CEO for 10 hours for a two-minute segment. Now do you understand why so many CEOs let me come over and film them? I never take more than an hour with an executive, so it’s always easy to get onto someone’s schedule.
6. My show has very little editing, so it’s pretty rare that the context gets lost on an answer. On TV, though, things get cut up, sliced and diced, all for entertainment effect, not necessarily to tell the best story.

Watching CNBC = a waste of time.

Presenting on CNBC = a waste of time.

Viva office-made videos and YouTube.

Viva video blogging.

Tags: CNBC, Robert Scoble

• Journalism, Editing & Publishing
• Comments(0)