Tag Archives: risk hedging

Why does the CFTC allow the Cantor Exchange and not InTrade?

Joe Weisenthal has a small opinion piece on why the CFTC allows real-money prediction markets on movie business, and bans those on politics or sports. The problem in the piece is that Joe is 100% wrong. Joe says that there … Continue reading

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Freakonomics is the latest in a long series of (usually, serious) bloggers who have misinformed the public by stating that the institutional investor is manipulating the US political election prediction markets.

The anonymous blogger (probably the editor, Annika Mengisen) titles the post, “A New Kind of Campaign Advertising?”, and asks: Will market manipulation for political candidates become the norm as ever-wealthier campaigns try to control the news cycle? No…!!!… John Delaney … Continue reading

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The New York Times on InTrade’s US political election prediction markets

The NYT writers discusses 2 (different?) issues. – #1. There was market arbitrage opportunies in the recent past between InTrade and BetFair —unlike 4 years ago, and contrary to the laws of economics. – The price of the Barack Obama … Continue reading

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Economics blogger Zubin Jelveh got it right about the InTrade hedging thing.

“No Manipulation At InTrade“ Exactly. John Delaney said that that firm has been hedging on InTrade —a normal and beneficial activity on the other (larger and more liquid) financial markets. InTrade is not liquid enough to weather (quickly enough) the … Continue reading

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Are recent historical charts now useless for short-term prediction market analysis because of the non-informational trades made by that institutional investor hedging its political risks on InTrade’s election prediction markets?

How can you assess the impact of Colin Powell’s endorsement of Barack Obama? You can’t.

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A blogger at the New York Times misinforms the public about the alleged manipulations on the InTrade US political prediction markets.

The blogger titles the post, “Cheating the Spread”. No…!!!… John Delaney said that that firm has been hedging on InTrade —a normal and beneficial activity on the other (larger and more liquid) financial markets. InTrade is not liquid enough to … Continue reading

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InTrade offers an explanation of strange trading.

Intrade has made a statement on the unusual trading that many have noted and alleged to be manipulative. The statement suggests that the price action is mostly attributable to a single firm, a hedger “using our markets in good faith … Continue reading

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The blogger at Marginal Revolution misinforms the public by repeating the misinterpretation thrown around by liberal hack Paul Krugman about the alleged manipulation on the InTrade prediction markets.

Alex Tabarrok writes that “someone was manipulating Intrade to boost John McCain’s stock price”. No…!!!… John Delaney said that that firm has been hedging on InTrade —a normal and beneficial activity on the other (larger and more liquid) financial markets. … Continue reading

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Liberal hack (and Nobel Prize winner) Paul Krugman totally and completely misunderstands what InTrade CEO John Delaney said regarding the non-informational trades made on their US political prediction markets.

Paul Krugman writes that “one large institutional investor was manipulating the Intrade presidential odds”. No…!!!… John Delaney said that that firm has been hedging on InTrade —a normal and beneficial activity on the other (larger and more liquid) financial markets. … Continue reading

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Jason Ruspini’s first guess about who is hedging on InTrade

His first guess: that firm. UPDATE

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