Tag Archives: Private

The Germans In Germany & The Prediction Exchanges In Great Britain

Posted on July 17, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

If I have understood correctly what Fabian John has just told me, the Germans can legally trade on the British prediction exchanges regulated by the Financial Services Authority (like TradeFair Spreads or SpreadFair), but not on those regulated by the … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged bet exchanges, Betting, betting exchanges, European Union, Fabian John, Financial Services Authority, Gambling Commission, Germans, Germany, laws, online gambling, prediction exchanges, Private, Regulations, web forum, www.bafin.de, www.choiceodds.com | Leave a comment

How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally

Posted on June 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Private Prediction Markets and the Law – (PDF file) – by Tom W. Bell – 2008-05-18 Abstract This paper analyses the legality of private prediction markets under U.S. law, describing both the legal risks they raise and how to manage … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged CFTC, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, internal prediction markets, judge, laws, legislator, prediction markets, Private, private prediction markets, reasonably competent attorney, Regulations, Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom W. Bell, United States | 1 Comment

Protecting Private Prediction Markets

Posted on May 21, 2008 by Tom W. Bell

My draft paper, Private Prediction Markets and the Law, offers a variety of detailed suggestions about how to protect the former from the latter. Specifically, I offer strategies for avoiding the scope of CFTC regulation, for discouraging liability for illegal … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Business, Business Administration, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Gambling, Mechanism Designs, Regulations | Tagged CFTC, event derivative markets, event derivatives, prediction markets, Private, Regulations, Securities and Exchange Commission, Tom W. Bell, United States | Leave a comment

Building Exits into CFTC Regulation

Posted on May 20, 2008 by Tom W. Bell

Much of my draft paper, Private Prediction Markets and the Law, focuses on nuts-and-bolts fixes for the legal uncertainty that currently afflicts private prediction markets under U.S. law. I’ll say more about those in later posts to Agoraphilia and Midas … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, event derivative markets, event derivatives, internet access, prediction markets, Private, Regulations, retail trading, Technology Liberation Front, Tom W. Bell, United States | 9 Comments

Insider Trading and Private Prediction Markets

Posted on May 7, 2008 by Tom W. Bell

People who run in-house, corporate prediction markets have told me that U.S. laws against illegal insider trading give them nightmares. The problem arises because a private prediction market typically generates material nonpublic information about the corporation that hosts it. If … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, insider trading, insider trading laws, insiders, internal prediction markets, Journal of Prediction Markets, laws, Private, private prediction markets, Tom W. Bell, United States | Leave a comment

Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work? — Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google

Posted on March 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file – PDF file) – by Bo Cowgill, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitwewitz – 2008-01-06 – VIDEO — Bo Cowgill on Google’s enterprise prediction markets — O’Reilly Money:Tech … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Business, Cases, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, active trader, advanced researcher, anonymous trading, architect, Bo Cowgill, CDA model for their markets, CEO, Chief Economist, computer-aided facility management systems, corporate applications, corporate prediction markets, crowd-wisdom applications, demographic networks, Doug Banks, economist, efficieny, Enterprise prediction market consultant, enterprise prediction markets, Eric Schmidt, Eric Zitwewitz, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, gas prices, Google, Google Using Prediction, Google's enterprise prediction markets, Google's prediction exchange, Google's prediction markets, GPS, Hal Varian, high profile applications, Ilya Kirnos, implicit social networks, internal prediction markets, James Surowiecki, Jed Christiansen, Justin Wolfers, language networks, Linux, Michael Giberson, open-source software, Patri Friedman, Piaw Na, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Private, private prediction markets, real estate management group, Robin Hanson, Social Networks, social/professional networks, software engineers, software-and-consulting model, the New York Times, Tim Harford, Trader, ubiquitous communication technology, United States, USD, value applications, Zubin Jelveh | 18 Comments

Predictocracy Book Review

Posted on March 8, 2008 by Alex Kirtland

I did a modest review of Michael Abramowicz’s new book: Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making. You can read it here. In short, interesting, in an odd sort of way, yet worth the read. ~alex UsableMarkets

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Resources - References | Tagged decision making, Michael Abramowicz, Predictocracy, Private | 1 Comment

Predictocracy = Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making

Posted on January 28, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: [...] The main problem with using [Michael] Abramowicz’s book as a “technical manual”, however, is that he’s never actually seen, much less touched, most of the blocks he describes. His conclusions are not supported or tested by math … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Economics, Politics | Tagged Collective Decision Making, Decision Making Robin Hanson, decision making, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, futarchy, market web, Michael Abramowicz, prediction markets, Predictocracy, Private, Robin Hanson, web address | 2 Comments

Presentation of Private Prediction Marketsâ€™ Legality Under U.S. Law

Posted on October 31, 2007 by Tom W. Bell

Koleman Strumpf has tapped me to discuss the legality of in-house prediction markets, tomorrow, at the Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets, at the Kauffman Foundation Conference Center, in lovely Kansas City, MO. I call my presentation, Private Prediction … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Events & Meetings, Regulations | Tagged Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation Conference Center, Missouri, Private, Robert E. Litan | Leave a comment

What the hell are PRIVATE WALL STREET WAGERS????

Posted on July 3, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Dan Dorfman: The newest bet, the single biggest such Street election wager I’ve heard about â€” one that’s illegal in America and which I’ve confirmed â€” is a $350,000 wager that Mrs. Clinton will win the presidency. Four people are … Continue reading →

Posted in Betting | Tagged Alex Forshaw, America, Board specialist, Clinton, Dan Dorfman, hedge fund manager, New York, official, Private, USD | Leave a comment

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