Tag Archives: predictive power

Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?

Posted on June 10, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Niall O’Connor: Robin Hanson, is what I would term a market fundamentalist – somebody who believes that markets are the primary mechanism for achieving the public good. Recent events have demonstrated that this creed is morally bankrupt. We are, in … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Politics | Tagged betting markets, Collective Decision Making, conditional prediction markets, decision markets, decision-aid markets, event derivative markets, free markets, free-market philosophy, market fundamentalists, markets, prediction markets, predictive power, public good, Robin Hanson, social utility, society | 5 Comments

Do Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices?

Posted on October 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Do Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices? Via Mike Linksvayer in a comment…

Posted in Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Forecasting (Science & Practice), future, oil futures, oil prices, prediction markets, Predictions, predictive power | Leave a comment

With regard to the 2008 US elections, both Justin Wolfers and Robin Hanson implied that BetFair is not as predictive “as it should be”.

Posted on September 19, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Previously: About Justin Wolfers’s column Justin Wolfers’ Freakonomics post (which suggests that BetFair would have a better predictive power if US traders could use it).

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity | Tagged arbitrage, bet exchanges, BetFair, betting exchanges, event derivaitive traders, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, HubDub, Inkling, InTrade, Iowa Electronic Markets, Justin Wolfers, NewsFutures, prediction exchanges, prediction market traders, prediction markets, predictive power, Robin Hanson, traders, US event derivative traders, US prediction market traders, US traders | Leave a comment

What are the lessons for pundits, polls, prediction markets, and other prognosticators?

Posted on January 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

…asked Justin Wolfers. Well, obviously, the observers expect better accuracy from the prediction markets than from the polls or the pundits. And thus, their disappointment is big. James Surowiecki said, in the December 2006 Yahoo! conference, that that’s because the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged accuracy, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, prediction markets, predictive power, Yahoo! | Leave a comment

Tag Archives: predictive power

Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?

Do Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices?

With regard to the 2008 US elections, both Justin Wolfers and Robin Hanson implied that BetFair is not as predictive “as it should be”.

What are the lessons for pundits, polls, prediction markets, and other prognosticators?

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