Tag Archives: predictive power
Is Robin Hanson a market fundamentalist?
Niall O’Connor:
Robin Hanson, is what I would term a market fundamentalist – somebody who believes that markets are the primary mechanism for achieving the public good. Recent events have demonstrated that this creed is morally bankrupt. We are, in the words of Michael Sandel, “at the end of an era of market triumphalism”.
Robin Hanson:
I deny [...]
Do Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices?
Do Oil Futures Prices Help Predict Future Oil Prices?
Via Mike Linksvayer in a comment…
With regard to the 2008 US elections, both Justin Wolfers and Robin Hanson implied that BetFair is not as predictive “as it should be”.
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Previously: About Justin Wolfers’s column
Justin Wolfers’ Freakonomics post (which suggests that BetFair would have a better predictive power if US traders could use it).
What are the lessons for pundits, polls, prediction markets, and other prognosticators?
…asked Justin Wolfers.
Well, obviously, the observers expect better accuracy from the prediction markets than from the polls or the pundits. And thus, their disappointment is big. James Surowiecki said, in the December 2006 Yahoo! conference, that that’s because the prediction markets are new.
So the lesson is that… the industry should not send out there spokespeople [...]
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