Meta
-
Recent Posts
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Tag Archives: prediction
Are InTrade lying about the number of ‘predictions’ they process? — [GUEST AUTHOR]
Intrade now post the following claim on their home page: Platform Metrics (More Soon) Platform operational: Since 2001 Total Predictions: 619,141,899 Average Daily Predictions: 169,589 This is just a preposterous misrepresentation of the volume of activity on the site. The … Continue reading
Your prediction markets can power the American Civics Exchange. — [IDEA MILL]
American Civics Exchange: Having just executed an initial round of closings for the funding we’ve been raising, we’re entering the final run-up to our real-money trading launch. With that in mind, we’ve launched a community feature where prospective traders (and … Continue reading
Posted in Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Genesis
Tagged All Rockets Ready To Fly, American Civics Exchange, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, exchange genesis, forecasting, genesis, IDEAS, market genesis, predicting, prediction, prediction markets, Predictions, proposals
Leave a comment
Foxes are better predictors than hedgehogs. OK, BUT WHY…????… — [QUESTION]
Here’s a question to my readers. Do you believe in intuition, and do you think that that’s the reason foxes are (a bit) better at forecasting than hedgehogs?
Google Prediction API gives you access to Google’s sophisticated machine learning algorithms to analyze a wide range of data and provide predictions for likely outcomes. — [FORECASTING TECH]
You can build a predictive model to find hidden patterns in financial data, or else. –> Google Prediction API – Machine learning for your business.
Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Information Technology, Inventions & Innovations
Tagged algorithms, API, APIs, data, economic data, financial data, forecast, forecasting, forecasts, Google, Google Prediction, Google Prediction API, Information Technology, innovation, innovations, invention, inventions, machine learning, machine learning algorithms, predicting, prediction, Predictions, predictive model, predictive models, Software
Leave a comment
The main advantage of web search as a prediction tool may have less to do with its superiority over other methods than with its generality, low cost, and real-time nature.
What Can Search Predict?
Ben Shannon’s bad Corzine bet.
Ben Shannon (who blogs as “Jesse Livermore” at “Wiser Than The Crowd”) did bet on Jon Corzine — “buying around 65-68″, at the end of October 2009. Bad bet. Once again.
The horse that Steve Levitt predicted would finish last… actually *won* the Kentucky Derby.
Thankfully, no one pays attention. I would like to read what Nate Silver thinks of horse racing forecasting.
The answer to any anti-prediction market backlash is quality, impartial, exchange-independent, science-based, diligent, pro-PM blogging.
Is John Delaney the greatest psychic of all times (past, present, and future)? Deep Throat is very impressed by how accurate the InTrade-TradeSports CEO’s 2005 prediction turned out to be. According to Deep Throat, the great Irish oracle “accurately predicted … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Industry), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism
Tagged accuracy, BetFair, Betting @ BetFair, blogging, CEO, event derivative markets, event derivatives, failure, InTrade, InTrade-TradeSports, John Delaney, Midas Oracle, New Hampshire, NewsFutures, Open Media, prediction, prediction market industry, prediction markets, Prime Minister, the New Hampshire, TradeSports
1 Comment
Deep Throat on the Hollywood Stock Exchange
In response to a previous blog post, Deep Throat has this to say: Hollywood Stock Exchange has been providing Prediction Market services for many years. They have been in client negotiations on providing these services since 2001. See the long … Continue reading