Tag Archives: prediction

Are InTrade lying about the number of ‘predictions’ they process? — [GUEST AUTHOR]

Intrade now post the following claim on their home page: Platform Metrics (More Soon) Platform operational: Since 2001 Total Predictions: 619,141,899 Average Daily Predictions: 169,589 This is just a preposterous misrepresentation of the volume of activity on the site. The … Continue reading

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Your prediction markets can power the American Civics Exchange. — [IDEA MILL]

American Civics Exchange: Having just executed an initial round of closings for the funding we’ve been raising, we’re entering the final run-up to our real-money trading launch. With that in mind, we’ve launched a community feature where prospective traders (and … Continue reading

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Foxes are better predictors than hedgehogs. OK, BUT WHY…????… — [QUESTION]

Here’s a question to my readers. Do you believe in intuition, and do you think that that’s the reason foxes are (a bit) better at forecasting than hedgehogs?

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Google Prediction API gives you access to Google’s sophisticated machine learning algorithms to analyze a wide range of data and provide predictions for likely outcomes. — [FORECASTING TECH]

You can build a predictive model to find hidden patterns in financial data, or else. –> Google Prediction API – Machine learning for your business.

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The main advantage of web search as a prediction tool may have less to do with its superiority over other methods than with its generality, low cost, and real-time nature.

What Can Search Predict?

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Ben Shannon’s bad Corzine bet.

Ben Shannon (who blogs as “Jesse Livermore” at “Wiser Than The Crowd”) did bet on Jon Corzine — “buying around 65-68″, at the end of October 2009. Bad bet. Once again.

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The horse that Steve Levitt predicted would finish last… actually *won* the Kentucky Derby.

Thankfully, no one pays attention. I would like to read what Nate Silver thinks of horse racing forecasting.

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Prediction markets feed on facts and expertise.

Via Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock of Odd Head and YooPick, the dear honorable Duncan Watts: In part because of disappointing findings such as this, an increasingly popular substitute for expert opinions are so-called “prediction markets,” in which individuals buy … Continue reading

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The answer to any anti-prediction market backlash is quality, impartial, exchange-independent, science-based, diligent, pro-PM blogging.

Is John Delaney the greatest psychic of all times (past, present, and future)? Deep Throat is very impressed by how accurate the InTrade-TradeSports CEO’s 2005 prediction turned out to be. According to Deep Throat, the great Irish oracle “accurately predicted … Continue reading

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Deep Throat on the Hollywood Stock Exchange

In response to a previous blog post, Deep Throat has this to say: Hollywood Stock Exchange has been providing Prediction Market services for many years. They have been in client negotiations on providing these services since 2001. See the long … Continue reading

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